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FX Update: Long yields suddenly make their presence felt again.
The market tried to slip back into full risk-on mode yesterday, but a huge rise in US treasury yields and sympathetic moves elsewhere at the long end of the curve reminds us how quickly the yield question can steal the spotlight when they are on the move. Next week looks very important for follow up moves in the wake of that particularly development and with the German election on Monday and US fiscal outlook in play.
The Bank of England wakes up bond bears around the globe, and benchmark yields break key resistance levels
Yesterday's BOE's hawkish tilt intimates that inflation is beginning to force central banks' hands into tighter monetary policies. The bond market is yet not pricing central banks' aggressive twists, making it vulnerable to abrupt selloffs. In the US, real rates continue to rise as breakeven rates remain stable. If this trend continues, it can pose serious threats to risky assets. In Europe, we expect yields to remain in check as the government bonds' supply will slow down next week. However, European government bonds remain vulnerable to higher yields in the US.
Spike in long yields grabs the spotlight. Huge week ahead.
Today features Saxo Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the huge spike in longer US treasury yields yesterday and sympathetic moves in EU and UK yields and at what point rising long yields might disrupt an equity market on the comeback trail. We also look at next week's main events, namely a pivotal German election and all that is at stake there, while also pondering the difficult path to additional US fiscal stimulus and this year's iteration of the old debt ceiling issue. Today's pod also features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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