Market Quick Take - Nvidia results in focus as crude slides and Korean chipmakers lead Asia - 26 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Cheaper crude and hopes of a Gulf reopening set the tone before heavy data
• Equities: US and European equities advanced as oil and yields eased, Asian stocks traded firmer but remained cautious ahead of Nvidia.
• Digital Assets: Coins firmed and the listed miners rallied hard on record fund inflows
• Commodities: LME copper hits fresh record high; oil falls on signs of a US-Iran offramp; gold consolidates
• Fixed Income: Global bonds rally on steep sell-off in crude oil, punching yields lower
• Currencies: Japanese yen finds modest support on lower bond yields. CAD lower on US trade spat, AUD jumps on AU CPI.

Macro

• Oil fell as Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary joint maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, with talks aimed at a permanent traffic and security framework. Pakistan’s army chief visited Tehran to support diplomacy, Qatar said its mediation continues, and new US measures on Iran were milder than expected, stopping short of secondary sanctions. Meanwhile, Russian agency RIA reported that the US and Iran are close to a ceasefire deal that would include ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Australia July CPI surprised to the upside, with the headline reading 3.5% YoY versus a drop to 3.3% expected and 3.8% in June, while the core readings got the most attention as the “trimmed mean” measure rose 0.5% MoM and 3.6% YoY versus 3.6% expected and 3.6% in June.
• The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey data for August saw a bifurcation as the Present Situation index rebounded from a revised five-year low in July, while the Expectations index fell sharply to 68.2 from 74.0. It was the lowest reading since January. The overall index was almost steady at 89.4 versus 90.2 expected and 90.2 in July.
• US July New Home Sales fell to a 607k annualized pace versus 620k expected, but the June data was revised up sharply to 678k from 628k originally reported.
• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Index rose 2.1% year-over-year in June 2026, the fastest since June 2025 and above the 1.7% forecast, but real prices fell for the 13th month as 3.5% inflation outpaced gains. Chicago (6.9%), New York (4.8%) and Cleveland (4.1%) led increases, while Seattle (-2.0%), Las Vegas (-1.9%) and Denver (-1.2%) declined.
• Germany’s economy grew 0.3% in Q2 2026, revised up from 0.2% but down from 0.4% in Q1. Exports rose 2.0%, outpacing 1.5% import growth, while domestic demand edged up 0.1% after a 0.3% fall. Investment stayed weak, with gross fixed capital formation down 0.2%, as machinery and equipment fell 1.4% and construction rose 0.1%. Year-on-year, GDP grew 1.0%, up from 0.7% in Q1.
• Canada imposed 15%–50% tariffs on about USD 20 billion of US imports after trade talks collapsed, while the US plans 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, parts and steel from January 1, 2027. Markets cut Bank of Canada rate-hike expectations despite higher energy prices. In response, the Trump administration is said to be weighing additional trade penalties, including higher tariffs and other measures.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 1230 – US July Personal Income & Spending
• 1230 – US July PCE Price Index
• 1230 – US 2Q GDP, Personal Consumption & Price Index (second reading)
• 1700 – US Treasury to auction 5-year notes

The Jackson Hole symposium runs from 27 to 29 August, with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote on Friday 28 August. The theme of the symposium is titled “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy” – seen as likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, but the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest-rate policy intentions.

Earnings events

• Wednesday: Nvidia, Crowdstrike, Salesforce, Synopsys, Agilent Technologies, HP, Okta
• Thursday: Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Workday, Rubrik, Pernod Ricard

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.6% as falling oil prices and Treasury yields revived demand for technology shares. Nvidia gained 2.2% ahead of earnings, while AMD jumped 4.9% after a Raymond James upgrade and Moderna surged 14.4% as analysts reassessed its cancer-vaccine opportunity. Dick’s Sporting Goods plunged 30.7% after cutting its annual outlook. After hours, Intuit fell 10.0% as its fiscal 2027 guidance missed expectations, with Nvidia earnings and US inflation data now taking centre stage.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%, while the FTSE 100 gained 0.3% and Germany’s DAX advanced 0.6%, as softer-than-feared US sanctions on Iran and falling oil prices eased inflation concerns. Healthcare led gains, with Novo Nordisk rising 2.9% after JPMorgan lifted its price target, while Melrose Industries surged 10.4% after outlining a restart of production at its GKN Aerospace facility. Kering fell 3.3% as luxury stocks lagged, while Wolters Kluwer dropped 3.1% after Google launched a new artificial-intelligence tool for the legal industry. Nvidia and Jackson Hole remained the next key tests.
• Asia: Asian equities traded firmer in today’s session as lower oil prices and the rebound in US chip stocks supported sentiment, although investors remained cautious ahead of Nvidia’s results. South Korea recovered from a weak open, with Samsung Electronics gaining around 1.0% and SK Hynix rising 1.2% as semiconductor shares stabilised, while Japan’s Advantest fell 1.7% as investors trimmed exposure ahead of the earnings event. Alibaba gained 1.4% in Hong Kong after reports that founder Jack Ma bought more than HK$600 million of shares following the company’s large AI-focused capital raise. Nvidia remained the main regional catalyst.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

• The coins firmed and the listed miners rallied hard. CleanSpark gained 6.87%, Riot 6.50%, Cipher 6.18%, IREN 6.03% and Marathon 5.81%, while Coinbase rose 4.28% and Strategy 3.42%. Circle added 4.90%. Solana and XRP lagged the majors.
• Bitcoin and ether funds drew USD 2.6 billion in the week to 21 August, their strongest week of 2026, with roughly USD 1.92 billion into the bitcoin products and USD 697 million into the ether ones.

Commodities

• Copper extended its gains in Asia after a record close in London on Tuesday, rising 0.5% to USD 14,415.50/t on the LME. The rally continues to be supported by persistent tightness in near-term supply of the key transition metal, as large volumes are shipped to the US, draining stockpiles elsewhere at a time when mine supply is struggling to keep pace with growing demand. In New York, the High Grade copper contract trades near USD 6.75 per pound, just shy of the record USD 6.8665 reached earlier this month.
• Oil: Crude trades lower for a third day after tumbling on Tuesday as Iran and Oman discussed an “interim framework” aimed at resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US “Economic D-Day” measures against Iran proved milder than expected. Together, these developments point towards a potential de-escalation, with both sides seemingly looking for an offramp from the conflict. Meanwhile, the API reported another build in US crude inventories, which, if confirmed by the EIA later today, would mark a fourth consecutive weekly increase.
• Gold continues to consolidate following a four-day rally that lifted prices by more than 7%. A recovering dollar is providing a headwind, partly offset by lower oil prices feeding through to lower bond yields. Attention is now turning to today’s July PCE inflation data, traditionally the US Fed’s preferred inflation measure, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, with markets looking for further guidance on the Fed’s interest-rate outlook and how policymakers view the balance between inflation, growth and financial conditions.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• Global yields were punched lower Tuesday as crude oil prices sold off steeply. The benchmark 2-year Treasury yield dropped back nearly six basis points Tuesday to below 4.18% before rebounding back above 4.18% in early trading Wednesday, while the benchmark 10-year shied further away from the recent range top of 4.75%, falling about six basis points from Monday’s 4.70% close to below 4.64% late Tuesday before buying pressure eased.
• Bond markets will closely watch today’s July PCE inflation data, traditionally the US Fed’s preferred inflation measure and expected to show core inflation running at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY, unchanged from June. The latter measure saw a peak since late 2023 at 3.42% YoY in May. Potentially more important for US Treasury yields will be any policy hints in Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday.

Currencies

• The Japanese yen recovered modestly on the massive mark-down in crude oil prices, which helped drag global bond yields lower. USDJPY eased back from local highs near 159.50 late Tuesday to trade back toward 159.00 by early Wednesday in Europe after testing slightly below that level.
• The US dollar action is neutral as the market holds its breath ahead of the Friday speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, which looks particularly pivotal after the US Treasury weighed in with policies and rhetorical signals recently clearly intended to cap long-term US Treasury yields.
• CAD remains at the weaker side of the recent range on the risk of a widening US-Canada trade spat as the US side is said to be weighing further tariffs after Canada’s tit-for-tat response to the latest US tariffs imposed on a range of Canadian goods. USDCAD hovers near 1.3860.
• The Australian dollar jumped on the hot CPI data (see above), which sent anticipation of further RBA tightening higher. AUDNZD rose sharply from around 1.1980 to above 1.2050 after the data, its highest in a week, as AUDUSD rose to new highs since late May near 0.7180.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis