Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US and European equities rebounded with semiconductors, while Asian markets followed, led by a sharp rally in South Korean chips.
• Volatility: VIX fell back below 18 as the chip rebound extended, with megacap tech earnings the next test
• Digital Assets: Crypto equities and miners rallied with the tech bounce while spot held broadly flat
• Commodities: Crude extended its rally on Middle East supply risk, gold pushed higher and copper firmed
• Fixed Income: Treasuries sold off, the 10-year yield reaching a two-month high on oil-driven inflation concerns
• Currencies: The dollar firmed for a fifth session and the yen slid past 163 to a multi-decade low
• Macro: The US-Iran conflict rolled into an 11th day and Trump set steep new drug tariffs, with Alphabet and Tesla due

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Macro

• The US-Iran conflict entered an 11th day, with Washington and Tehran exchanging strikes and President Trump playing down the prospect of near-term talks while vowing to respond if Houthi militants disrupt Red Sea shipping. Mediators are reportedly proposing a ten-day ceasefire. The escalation has kept a risk premium in oil and reinforced the market's inflation focus.
• Trump set out a steep tariff on generic drugs, at 100% from August 2028 and rising to 200% from August 2029, with a two-year tariff-free window from August 2026. Separately, he threatened new 50% tariffs on selected Canadian goods, and a 10% universal tariff on Taiwan is due to expire on 24 July, with Taipei reportedly negotiating a final rate.
• UK politics stayed in focus after new Prime Minister Andy Burnham named former Defence Secretary John Healey as chancellor, with both pledging fiscal discipline. ONS data showed June public sector borrowing of £16 billion, around a third lower than a year earlier and below forecasts, offering some relief to gilt investors after last week's selloff.
• European data improved: Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index climbed to 26.3 in July, its highest since February, on better prospects for export-oriented industry. Japan swung to a June trade deficit of ¥406.9 billion as imports jumped 25.4% to a record on strong domestic demand, while exports rose 19.3% on robust semiconductor shipments.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1430 – US EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (forecast -1.5M, previous -1.7M)

Earnings events

• Wednesday: Tesla, Alphabet, GE Vernova, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, CME Group, ...
• Thursday: Intel, Rtx Corp, T-Mobile US, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Nasdaq Inc, Verisign, Dow, Blackstone, American Airlines, ...
• Friday: Exxon Mobil, American Express, NextEra Energy, Verizon, ...

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.9% and the Dow added 0.7%, ending a three-day losing streak as investors returned to semiconductors. Micron surged 12.2% and Sandisk climbed 14.3% as memory stocks recovered from last week’s sharp sell-off, while General Motors gained 4.9% after beating quarterly earnings and lifting its full-year profit outlook. Super Micro jumped 16.9% after hours after forecasting gross margins of 15–17%, nearly double its previous guidance. Attention now turns to Alphabet, Tesla and Intel earnings for evidence that artificial intelligence spending remains durable.
• Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6%, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.9%, the DAX advanced 0.7% and the FTSE 100 added 0.6%, reversing two sessions of losses. Technology led as investors bought the semiconductor dip, with ASML rising 4.8%, while Novartis gained 2.0% after beating second-quarter core profit estimates. Mitie surged 39.0% after agreeing to a £3.1 billion takeover by OCS, while Wienerberger fell 4.1% after cutting its full-year profit outlook as construction demand weakened. Markets now turn to Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting and another busy round of bank earnings.
• Asia: South Korea’s Kospi traded 3.6% higher at 6,987, easing from an earlier gain of around 5% as the semiconductor-led rally lost some momentum during Wednesday’s session. Japan’s Nikkei was little changed, down 0.04%, while Shanghai and Hong Kong each fell 0.6%. Korean chips drove the rebound after Wall Street’s semiconductor rally, with Samsung Electronics up 5.2% after S&P Global raised its outlook to positive and SK Hynix gaining 6.0% as investors returned to artificial intelligence memory shares. Hyundai Motor rose 7.4% on expectations for stronger robotics growth, while Lee & Man Paper jumped as much as 14.0% after forecasting first-half profit growth of 64–71%. Alphabet and Tesla earnings remain the next test for the regional technology rebound.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 17.05 | VIX FUTURES: 18.60 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (151.66) | MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOL BULL | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• With the chip-led rebound extending for a second session, index vol drained lower. The S&P 500 closed Tuesday up 0.89% at 7,509.20, though US futures point lower as oil firms. VIX fell 8.6% to 17.05, back below 18, and VIX1D collapsed 24.5% to 10.14.
• The term structure stayed in contango, VIX3M at 19.59, while VXN eased to 26.66 and SKEW held elevated at 151.66. MOVE was subdued at 74.67, though oil vol OVX near 64 remains four times the VIX. SPX options imply a weekly move near 73 points (0.97%) into Friday's expiry, with Alphabet and Tesla earnings ahead.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~66,209 -0.4% | ETHEREUM ~1,930 +0.1% | IBIT 37.67 +2.11% | ETHA 14.53 +1.40% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• Crypto-linked equities powered higher alongside the semiconductor rebound, even as spot held broadly flat overnight. Coinbase jumped 9.6% and Strategy added 4.2%, while miners led the tape: Cipher rose 11.4%, Riot 8.0% and Cleanspark 6.7%. The spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs both extended their advance.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs extended a run of net inflows into a fifth straight session, with Monday drawing about 227 million dollars and BlackRock's IBIT taking the largest share; Bitcoin products absorbed roughly 84% of the total.

Commodities

• Crude oil extended its rally, with WTI up 1.2% toward $85 a barrel, a fourth straight gain and its highest level since mid-June, while Brent traded back above $92. The move reflects the ongoing US-Iran conflict, now in its 11th day, a Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping, and production shut-ins as Tropical Storm Bertha moves through the Gulf of Mexico, which pushed the Mars crude premium to around $2 a barrel over WTI, its strongest since early June. The API reported US crude inventories rose 2.6 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks fell 1.4 million.
• Gold extended higher toward $4,130 this morning, a second consecutive daily gain after climbing about 1.9% on Tuesday to near $4,084. Bullion is holding up despite firmer US yields and a stronger dollar, as energy-driven inflation risk and safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict outweigh those headwinds. Silver advanced around 1.6% toward $60 an ounce.
• Copper headed for its highest close since mid-June on signs of continuing supply tightness in China, lifting European mining shares, with Glencore up 2.6%, Antofagasta 3.7% and KGHM 4.5%, and the Stoxx 600 basic-resources sub-index rising as much as 1.5%.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries sold off as the renewed climb in oil stoked inflation concerns and revived talk of Fed rate hikes. The 10-year yield rose to around 4.63%, its highest in about two months, while the 30-year touched 5.13 to 5.15% and yields were 2 to 5 basis points higher across the curve. A large options position was noted targeting a further 10 basis point selloff in the 10-year by the end of July.
• In Asia, Australian bond futures implied yields rose 3.5 to 4 basis points overnight, tracking Treasuries, while Japan's 10-year note futures fell in the night session ahead of a ¥300 billion 40-year JGB auction. Supply is expected to be absorbed smoothly.

Currencies

• The dollar firmed for a fifth straight session, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up around 0.2% to a one-week high, supported by higher US yields and firmer oil. USDJPY broke above 163 for the first time since 1986, touching 163.24, on the yen's vulnerability to elevated energy costs; Japanese officials repeated warnings that they stand ready to act, though analysts doubt intervention alone would reverse the trend.
• Elsewhere, EURUSD eased toward 1.1400 and GBPUSD slipped to about 1.3376, while AUDUSD finished essentially flat near 0.6999 after briefly trading above 0.70. NZDUSD was the weakest major, near 0.5826, as investors judged the kiwi priced for perfection given aggressive RBNZ tightening expectations, and USDCNH stayed tightly managed around 6.77.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis