Market Quick Take - Chips cool, markets hesitate - 7 July 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US chip strength lifted Wall Street, Europe paused near records, Asia was mixed as Korea’s AI-memory trade cooled.
• Volatility: Monday's tech-led rebound faded overnight on an Asian chip selloff
• Digital Assets: Crypto equities and ETFs rallied Monday while spot eased overnight
• Commodities: Coffee and cocoa jump on El Niño weather concerns, while Hormuz tensions add a modest risk premium.
• Fixed Income: US bonds steady as 10-year JGB yield hits 1997 high
• Currencies: Bullish USD futures bet extend to decade high
• Macro: US May Trade Balance & NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations

Macro

• US service-sector activity remained in expansion in June, with the ISM Services PMI easing to 54.0 from 54.5, while the S&P Global measure rose to 51.2 from 50.7. New business remained supportive, helped by tourism and World Cup-related activity, while hiring signals were mixed and cost pressures persisted despite some easing in the ISM price measure.
• Germany’s Construction PMI rose to 44.8 in June 2026 from 42.4, indicating a slower contraction. Housing remained weakest, but commercial and civil declines eased. New orders and employment kept falling at softer rates, costs and delivery times stayed pressured, and confidence improved but stayed negative.
• A Qatari LNG carrier was hit by a projectile near Oman as it exited the Strait of Hormuz, testing the US-Iran ceasefire and reviving shipping concerns. The attack added a small risk premium back into oil prices while European gas prices jumped to a one-month high amid renewed uncertainty over traffic through the strait.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0600 – Germany May Industrial Production
• 1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change
• 1230 – US May Trade Balance
• 1500 – NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations
• 1600 – EIAs Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO)

Earnings events

Next week:

• Wednesday: Kongsberg Gruppen
• Thursday: Pepsico, Fast Retailing, Progressive, Cintas, Seven and I Holdings
• Friday: Delta Airlines

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.3%, and the Dow added 0.3% to a record 53,056 as chip strength put artificial intelligence back in the driving seat. Broadcom jumped 3.7% after Apple extended a custom-chip deal to 2031, while Nvidia, Micron, AMD and Intel also gained on renewed semiconductor demand hopes. Tesla rose 6.7% after its Miami robotaxi launch lifted AI optimism, and Arista Networks surged 8.3% as investors returned to AI networking names. O’Reilly Automotive fell 6.7% on concerns around a potential NAPA bid, while markets looked to Wednesday’s Fed minutes for rate signals.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.3% to 650.50, the FTSE 100 declined 0.3% to 10,652, and the Euro Stoxx 50 slipped 0.2% to 6,398 as investors took some profit near record levels. Germany’s DAX rose 0.2, helped by lower oil prices and stronger earnings expectations. Thyssenkrupp rose on reports of a major Canadian submarine contract, while BE Semiconductor fell 5.5% on reports of further delays to hybrid-bonding chip adoption. Maersk slid 5.4% as Red Sea route news raised freight-rate concerns, while EasyJet surged 9.3% on takeover interest.
• Asia: Asian markets were mixed, with the Nikkei 225 broadly flat, the Kospi down 0.5% to 8,051, the Hang Seng up 0.8%, and Singapore’s STI up 0.3% to 5,260. Korea remained the pressure point as SK Hynix fell 3.4% amid 11 straight days of foreign selling, while Chinese memory-chip names rallied after strong preliminary earnings, with Shenzhen Longsys up 13%. Samsung reported Q2 operating profit of 89.4 trillion won, above expectations, but shares fell more than 4% on Nextrade after the update. LG Energy Solution also missed profit estimates sharply as weak electric-vehicle demand kept battery sentiment under pressure.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 15.57 | VIX FUTURES: 17.35 | TERM: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (145.38) | REGIME: LOW-VOL BULL

• Equities are rotating out of technology after Monday's rebound, as an Asian chip selloff (Samsung and SK Hynix down over 9%) revived AI-valuation worries and pushed Kospi down 7.5%. The S&P 500 closed Monday up 0.72% at 7,537.42, but US futures point lower. VIX eased to 15.57 and VIX1D fell 34% to 8.73, pricing little near-term risk.
• The term structure sits in contango, up to VIX3M 18.78, while SKEW stayed elevated at 145.38 and MOVE subdued at 65.76. The SPX weekly expected move is about 64 points (0.84%) for Friday's 10 July expiry, with FOMC minutes Wednesday the key catalyst.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~63,125 -1.3% | ETHEREUM ~1,770 -1.6% | IBIT 36.12 +3.58% | ETHA 13.55 +5.37%

• Digital assets entered Tuesday softer after Monday's strong session for crypto-linked equities, with the pullback tracking the broader retreat in technology stocks. US-listed proxies had rallied hard on Monday: IBIT and ETHA led the ETFs, while miners advanced broadly, paced by a 13.11% move in Iren.
• Structural news dominated the session: Kraken began accepting tokenized stocks as collateral for leveraged trades outside the US, while Revolut said it will delist Tether's USDT from August, extending Europe's retreat in stablecoin access.

Commodities

• Arabica coffee futures surged as much as 19% on Monday, the steepest one-day rise in 26 years, as El Niño-related weather concerns extended a one-month rally that has lifted prices by 45%. Widespread expectations of a bumper crop in top producer Brazil have been tempered by poor weather that has delayed harvesting, prompting some growers to hold back sales in anticipation of higher prices. Meanwhile, cocoa futures jumped 13% to their highest since January as persistent rains across key West African growing regions added to supply concerns, squeezing funds holding sizeable short positions.
• Oil prices and especially LNG rose after a Qatari LNG ship was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast as it exited the Strait of Hormuz, raising unease among shipowners while once again testing a US-Iran agreement intended to halt attacks and keep the narrow strait open. EU TTF gas futures rose to near a one-month high at EUR 46/MWh (USD 15.5/MMBtu), but with oil prices staying subdued amid ample supply. Focus on EIA’s Short-term Energy Outlook.
• Gold trades softer for a second day as the Iranian attack revived inflation concerns. Overall, bullion remains rangebound as it attempts to shift from capitulation to consolidation, supported by softer US data and a less hostile dollar and yield backdrop. However, with short-dated US yields still signalling a risk of a rate hike later this year, a further easing in rate expectations is needed to support a more durable recovery.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US 10-year Treasury yield slipped to around 4.46% on Monday, before edging higher to near 4.5% amid higher energy prices. Investors digested data showing a modest services slowdown, easing price pressures, and stronger services employment, following softer jobs numbers that reduced expectations for further Fed hikes this year,
• Japan’s 10-year government bond yield trades at a fresh multi-decade high around 2.86%, amid concerns over larger fiscal spending and heavier borrowing under a new long-term ¥370 trillion investment plan. Persistent bond selling and pressure on the BOJ to hike rates further, given the yen’s weakness near 40-year lows, have pushed yields higher.

Currencies

• Bullish IMM USD bets hits decade high: In the week to 30 June, ahead of Kevin Warsh’s comments on cooling inflation and Friday’s weak US jobs report, the non-commercial USD long versus eight IMM futures jumped to USD 39.8 billion, the highest in at least ten years. Despite the DXY slipping 0.2% during the reporting week, dollar buying continued, driven primarily by aggressive EUR selling that pushed the net position back to neutral, while the JPY short reached a fresh two-year high.
• JPY hovered near 162 against USD, close to a four-decade low, putting traders on alert for potential intervention by Japanese authorities. In the futures market, the non-commercial net short jumped to a fresh 2-year high in the week to 30 with the gross short rising to USD 21 billion equivalent.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis