Market Quick Take – 29 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US and Europe slipped on AI worries; Asia was mixed as Korea’s chip rally met China and Japan weakness.
• Volatility: VIX ~18; event-heavy; Fed + mega-cap earnings; upside skew
• Digital Assets: BTC stable; ETH firmer; IBIT softer; ETHA steady
• Currencies: USD firm in slow trading as US short yields rise slightly ahead of FOMC meeting
• Commodities: Crude near war-cycle high as strait stays shut; gold steadies, wheat hits two-year high
• Fixed Income: US short-dated yields rise slightly ahead of FOMC meeting with no strong policy guidance expected
• Macro events: Canada and Fed Rate Decisions

Macro headlines

• Australia’s March headline CPI came in at +1.1% MoM and 4.6% YoY vs. 4.8% YoY expected and 3.7% YoY in Feb. The core, “trimmed mean” readings for March were +0.3% MoM and the as expected 3.3% YoY. For the Q1 CPI readings, only the QoQ core trimmed mean reading surprised slightly, with a +0.8% reading versus 0.9% expected, while the YoY number was inline with expectations at 3.5%
• US private payrolls rose an average of 39,250 per week in the four-week period ending April 11, according to ADP Research and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
• US same-store sales rose 7.7% year-over-year in the week ended April 25, according to Johnson Redbook, with sales benefiting from an extra selling day this year compared to last year due to the timing of Easter.
• The UAE has decided to leave OPEC, effective 1 May, as it seeks release from the constraints imposed by OPEC quotas to gradually increase production in a post-war environment where supply tightness will be a focus for a prolonged period amid the global rebuild of commercial and strategic reserves. The departure of the UAE, one of OPEC's most influential members, will raise wider questions about the group's credibility and market power, given its future ability to managed prices by adjusting supply.
• Meanwhile, President Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, targeting the regime's coffers in a high-risk bid to compel Iran to end its nuclear program, a move Tehran has long refused.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0900 – Eurozone April Consumer, Economic Confidence
1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
1200 – Germany April CPI
1230 – US March Trade Balance
1230 – US March Housing Starts
1345 – Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision
1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report
1800 – Fed Rate Decision

Earnings this week

• Yesterday/Tuesday: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, T-Mobile US, Airbus, Booking Holdings, S&P Global, Seagate Technology, BP, Starbucks, Spotify, Atlas Copco, UPS, Robinhood, Mondelez, General Motors, Bloom Energy
• Today/Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Meta, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, TotalEnergies, Amphenol, Carvana, General Dynamics, Adidas, Cadence Design Systems, Etsy, Domino’s Pizza, Ford Motor, DSV A/S, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Enskilda Banken, Sandoz Group
• Thursday: Apple, Samsung Electronics, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck, Amgen, Sandisk, Western Digital, Tokyo Electron, Royal Caribbean Cruises, DHL Group, Schneider Electric, Unilever, Societe Generale
• Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Linde, Mitsubishi, Aalberts NV, Pearson PLC

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,138.80, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9% to 24,663.80, and the Dow slipped 0.1% to 49,141.93 as investors questioned the pace of artificial intelligence spending ahead of major tech earnings. Nvidia fell 1.6% after the OpenAI report hit AI-linked shares, while Oracle lost 4.1% and CoreWeave dropped 5.8% on concern about their exposure to OpenAI’s cloud spending. General Motors rose after lifting its annual profit outlook, while Coca-Cola gained 3.9% on stronger earnings. Markets now watch Big Tech results for proof that AI demand is still more than a very expensive group chat.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.4%, the DAX declined 0.3% to 24,018.26, and the FTSE 100 edged up 0.1% to 10,332.79 as technology weakness offset support from energy. The tech subindex lost 1.8% after the OpenAI report, with ASML down more than 3% and BE Semiconductor falling 5.1% as investors questioned near-term AI spending momentum. Energy shares softened the damage as BP gained 1.1% after earnings beat expectations, helped by stronger oil trading, while Shell and TotalEnergies rose more than 2%.
• Asia: Asian markets were mixed, with South Korea’s Kospi rising 0.4% to a record 6,641.02, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.9% to 25,679.78, Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.0% to 59,917.46, and China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2% to 4,078.64. Korea continued to benefit from demand for high-bandwidth memory and data-centre chips, while Japan sold off AI and semiconductor names. Alibaba fell 2.8% in Hong Kong, and CATL dropped 6.9% after disclosing a HK$39.2 billion equity offering. BYD’s first-quarter net profit fell 55%, highlighting that China’s EV price war still has teeth.

Volatility

• Volatility appears contained, but the setup remains event-heavy. The VIX closed at 17.83 (-1.05%), while shorter-term measures point to rising near-term sensitivity, with VIX1D at 11.66 (+10.3%) and VIX9D at 16.69. Markets are heading into a dense cluster of catalysts today, including the Federal Reserve decision, Powell’s press conference, and earnings from several mega-cap technology companies, which together can quickly shift sentiment. At the same time, higher oil prices and rising bond yields are adding pressure through renewed inflation concerns.
• Based on current SPX options pricing, the market is implying a move of roughly ±90 points (±1.26%) into Friday’s 1 May expiry, signalling that investors expect meaningful movement over the coming sessions.
• For today’s expiry, the options chain shows a mild call-side skew rather than defensive put demand: near current levels, call implied volatility is around 18.4% versus ~15.7% for puts. This suggests positioning is not purely protective, with investors also willing to pay for upside exposure into key macro and earnings events.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets are holding relatively firm despite the cautious macro backdrop, although the tone remains measured rather than strongly bullish. Bitcoin is trading around USD 77,249 (+1.2%), while Ethereum is near USD 2,329 (+1.75%), with Solana and XRP posting modest gains. Price action suggests stability, but the lack of strong follow-through highlights a market that is still waiting for clearer direction from macro drivers, including central bank policy and geopolitical developments.
• ETF positioning remains mixed. IBIT is slightly lower (-0.67%), while ETHA is modestly higher (+0.58%), indicating diverging flows between Bitcoin and Ethereum exposure. Options activity adds nuance: recent flows show continued medium-term call buying in IBIT, pointing to ongoing institutional interest in Bitcoin-linked upside. In contrast, crypto-related equities and miners continue to show a more mixed pattern of hedging, income generation and selective speculation. Overall, institutional participation remains present, but not broad-based enough to confirm a strong risk-on phase.

Fixed Income

• The US treasury yield curve flattened as yields at the front end rose more than longer yields, perhaps on higher crude oil prices. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose nearly four basis points to nearly 3.84% Tuesday, while the benchmark 10-year yield closed within the recent trading range and just below 4.35% after surging briefly to a new three week high of 4.378%
• European yields rose sharply Tuesday as oil prices spiked higher. The benchmark 2-year Bund rose nearly eight basis points to 2.65% ahead of the Thursday ECB meeting this Thursday as anticipation of the central bank guiding for a June rate hike rises to a near certainty.

Commodities

• Brent closed near the highs for this war-driven cycle on Tuesday, settling above USD 111, where it remains, as the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz prolongs a disruption that continues to tighten global energy markets. The United Arab Emirates’s decision to leave OPEC and raise production is unlikely to have any short- to medium-term impact given the precarious state of depleted global stockpiles that will need rebuilding. Traders now focus on the next steps in peace talks and today’s US inventory report for further signs of how quickly US stockpiles are falling amid robust export demand.
• Gold trades steady following a two-day drop, with oil-led inflation risks remaining the main driver, as rising energy prices strengthen the dollar and reinforce a higher-for-longer interest rate outlook. For now, the market’s immediate focus remains on mediation efforts, with a reopening of the strait and a subsequent drop in oil prices representing the biggest short-term upside catalyst for both gold and silver.
• Chicago wheat futures surged to their highest level in nearly two years, trading above USD 6.50 per bushel and lifting the year-to-date gain to 28%, as drought across key US growing regions pressures yields at a time when soaring fertilizer costs have prompted farmers to plant the fewest acres of wheat since record-keeping began in 1919.

Currencies

• The US dollar remains at the strong end of the recent range in quiet trading ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, which will likely be Powell’s last meeting as Fed Chair, assuming Kevin Warsh can have his nomination confirmed in time for the June meeting as Powell’s term ends May 15. EURUSD is stuck near 1.1700 and USDJPY hovering not far below 160.00.
• USDCAD backed up to just below the 1.3700 level Tuesday and early Wednesday ahead of Bank of Canada and FOMC meetings later Wednesday after probing below 1.3600 briefly Monday, its lowest level since early March.
• AUD traded mixed on slightly softer than anticipated CPI data (see above). While AUDUSD dipped slightly within the recent range to 0.7160, AUDNZD rose to a new cycle- and 13-yaer high above 1.2220 early Wednesday.
• Europe’s souring growth outlook on higher energy prices is likely pushing the Swedish krone lower, as a recent EURSEK bid to take out the 10.75 area was rejected and the price action has backed up to 10.85+

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