Market Quick Take – 23 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Wall Street hit fresh highs, Europe slipped on oil and geopolitics, while Asia stayed mixed as Japan’s AI rally met China resilience.
• Volatility: VIX below 19, ceasefire support, downside protection demand
• Digital Assets: BTC and ETH steady, IBIT and ETHA strong, alt-coins softer
• Fixed Income: Global bond yields edge higher on fresh rise in crude oil prices.
• Currencies: US dollar firms again on latest crude oil price spike.
• Commodities: Oil rebound sets the tone with metals lower
• Macro events: Flash April Manufacturing and Services PMI for Eurozone, UK and US, Japan Mar. National CPI

Macro headlines

• The US and Iran are both acting to block the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran firing on at least three ships Wednesday. Before the expiry of the original ceasefire Wednesday, US President Trump said he would extend the ceasefire indefinitely, awaiting an Iranian peace proposal, though Tehran said it has no intent to engage in peace talks.
• US President Trump has a May 1 deadline for seeking congressional authorization for the war in Iran under the War Powers Resolution of 1973, which states that if no formal declaration of war or other authorization has been made, he must wind down any military action within 60 days. Trump can extend activity for 30 days, but only if safe withdrawal of US forces is deemed a military necessity.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0715 – France Flash Apr. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0730 – Germany Flash Apr. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0800 – Eurozone Flash Apr. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0830 – UK Flash Apr. Manufacturing and Services PMI
1230 – US Mar. Chicago Fed National Activity Index
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1345 – US Flash Apr. Manufacturing and Services PMI
1430 – EIAs Natural Gas Storage Change
2301 – UK GfK Consumer Confidence
2330 – Japan Mar. National CPI

Earnings this week

• Wednesday (yesterday): Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, Lam Research, Vertiv, AT&T, ABB, Boeing, Boston Scientific
• Thursday (today): Intel, American Express, KLA Corporation, SAP, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, Blackstone, Comcast, Nokia, NextEra Energy, Southern Copper, Newmont
• Friday: Procter & Gamble, SLB, Charter, HCA Healthcare, AB Volvo

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 7,137.90 and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.7% to 24,937.28, while the Dow added 0.7% to 49,490.03, as an extended U.S.-Iran ceasefire and a strong batch of earnings kept risk appetite alive even with oil still near USD 100. Micron jumped 8.5% as artificial intelligence demand kept chip optimism running, Boeing rose about 5.5% after a smaller-than-expected loss, GE Vernova surged more than 13% after lifting its 2026 outlook on data-centre power demand, and Boston Scientific climbed 9.0% after cutting guidance in what investors read as the reset they had been waiting for. Focus now shifts to whether earnings can keep outrunning the oil bill.
• Europe: The STOXX 600 fell 0.4% to 613.88, the DAX slipped 0.3%, and the FTSE 100 edged 0.2% lower to 10,476.46, as investors weighed a fragile Middle East truce, firmer oil, and another heavy round of earnings. There were still pockets of strength: ASM International jumped 7.1% after guiding for stronger second-quarter revenue, and ABB rose 3.4% after lifting its sales outlook. On the other side of the ledger, Deutsche Telekom dropped 4.8% on merger speculation around T-Mobile US, while Reckitt fell 4.6% after weak quarterly numbers. Europe again looked like a market split between energy and tech winners, and everyone else paying the petrol bill.
• Asia: Asia was mixed on Wednesday’s closes, with Japan standing out as the Nikkei 225 rose 0.4% to 59,585.86, though the broader Topix fell 0.7% to 3,744.99, showing the rally remained narrow and heavily tied to the artificial intelligence trade. Mainland China was firmer, with the CSI 300 rising 0.7% to 4,799.63 and the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.5% to 4,106.26, while Hong Kong lagged as the Hang Seng fell 1.2% to 26,163.24. SoftBank surged about 8.5% on renewed enthusiasm around its AI ambitions, while South Korea’s Samsung Electronics rose 0.6% and SK Hynix slipped 0.4% in a more selective chip trade. The next test is whether Asia’s tech leadership broadens out, or stays a very crowded table for a few names.

Volatility

• Volatility eased after Wednesday’s strong risk-on session, with the S&P 500 closing at a record 7,137.90 and the VIX at 18.92, down from 19.50 the day before. The move reflects improving sentiment following the indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire and solid earnings, but investors are not fully relaxed as oil prices remain elevated and geopolitical tensions have not disappeared.
• Today’s focus shifts to US jobless claims, PMI data and another heavy earnings calendar, all of which could challenge the current risk-on tone.
• Based on SPX options pricing, the market is implying a move of around 56.6 points into Friday, or roughly 0.8% from current levels.
• For today’s expiry, the options market still shows a clear downside skew, with near-the-money puts around 7140–7150 priced at roughly 22.6%–23.2% implied volatility, compared with about 11.1%–11.3% for comparable calls, highlighting continued demand for downside protection.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets are holding onto a constructive tone, although momentum has slowed slightly after yesterday’s rally. Bitcoin is trading around $78,200 and Ether near $2,350, supported by improved risk appetite following easing geopolitical concerns.
• Institutional demand remains a key pillar: IBIT rose 5.27% and ETHA gained 4.50%. Among crypto-linked equities, COIN (+5.28%), MSTR (+9.39%), MARA (+5.43%), RIOT (+6.15%), and CIFR (+7.76%) all moved higher, reinforcing the broader positive sentiment across the space. In contrast, major alt-coins such as XRP and Solana are slightly softer this morning, suggesting some profit-taking after recent gains.
• Overall, the setup remains constructive, but less one-directional, with investors balancing continued inflows against near-term consolidation.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields rose Wednesday and in early Thursday trading on the fresh spike in crude oil prices, which raises inflationary pressures and the probability of tighter Fed policy. The benchmark 2-year treasury rose two basis points Wednesday to close near 4.80% before some additional upside pressure in early Thursday trading, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose about a basis point to just above 4.30% Wednesday, trading slightly higher early Thursday.
• European bonds are under pressure on the fresh rise in oil prices, with the German 2-year Schatz benchmark closing Wednesday at its highest yield in over a week at 2.56%. That’s up over three basis points from the Tuesday close and up 16 basis points from the Friday close. The 10-year benchmark German Bund yield trades mid-range of the last several weeks, near 3.00%.

Commodities

• Oil trades higher for a fourth consecutive day, with Brent trading around USD 103, as both Iran and the U.S. attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz, with no clear end in sight to a war that has severely disrupted global supplies of several key commodities. While the immediate focus remains on energy, the impact is increasingly at risk of spilling into agriculture, where a developing fertilizer shortage could weigh on crop production in the months ahead.
• With flows of crude and refined products constrained, the pre-war global supply buffer is being eroded rapidly. As a result, the global economy is left with limited options to rebalance the market. The most immediate - and economically painful - adjustment mechanism is demand destruction, which is already becoming evident. Refiners are reducing runs, while several import-dependent and economies and industries are implementing measures to curb consumption.
• Gold and silver continue to take their cues from the oil market, with rising energy costs keeping the risk of near-term dollar strength and elevated inflation in focus. So far this month, gold has traded within a relatively well-defined range between USD 4,875 and USD 4,670, anchored by key Fibonacci levels, with a break potentially suggestion the next move. In the short term, higher oil prices may act as a headwind for precious metals. However, higher oil prices may weigh in the short term before its potential damaging economic impact becomes a tailwind.

Currencies

• The US dollar firmed on the fresh spike in crude oil prices as the Hormuz Strait remains almost entirely blocked for shipping. EURUSD dipped below 1.1700 early Thursday after falling from the 1.1750 area the prior day. USDJPY rose slightly to above 159.50, while AUDUSD pulled back slightly to below 0.7150.
• The high oil and gas prices have sent EURNOK to new three-year lows below 10.90 and NOKSEK to a new high since late 2024 as that exchange rate nears parity, trading 0.9929 early Thursday.

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