Market Quick Take – 18 March 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: U.S. and Europe edged higher on travel and energy, while Asia stayed selective as chip optimism met oil anxiety.
• Volatility: Fed decision, Powell tone, oil and inflation risk, expected move elevated
• Digital Assets: Crypto rangebound, Fed focus, IBIT/ETHA inflows
• Fixed Income: Global bond markets rally on stable risk sentiment, easing oil prices.
• Currencies: USD softens, particularly against JPY on stable risk sentiment. NOK sharply higher.
• Commodities: Brent and WTI ease while refined products signal acute tightness; gold awaits FOMC rate guidance
• Macro events: Bank of Canada Rate Decision, US FOMC Rate Decision

Macro headlines

• Risk sentiment has rebounded after the US close Tuesday as oil prices came under pressure, in part as Iraq has struck an agreement with Turkey to resume oil exports from northern Iraqi fields through a pipeline that was shut earlier this month, boosting the country’s crude output, much of which is held up by the closure of the Hormuz Strait.
• The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged at today's policy meeting as traders seek guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the impact of rising oil prices. The surge in energy prices around the world — with US diesel costs topping $5 a gallon this week at the pump — will be scrutinized by the Fed and other central bankers around the world as they steer monetary policy.
• US allies resisted President Trump's call to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran allows safe passage for certain vessels through the Strait of Hormuz based on their affiliations.
• US pending home sales rose 1.8% in February 2026, surpassing expectations. Gains were seen in the Midwest, South, and West, while the Northeast declined. Year-over-year, sales fell 0.8%. Improved affordability drove the rise, but rising oil prices could affect mortgage rates.
• The New York Fed's general business activity index rose to -22.6 in March 2026 from -25.7, still indicating a sharp decline since the post-Covid recovery. The business climate index fell to -46.2, prices charged dropped to 28.8, and employment improved to -8.5. Future activity expectations fell to 12.7.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1000 – Eurozone Feb CPI (final)
1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
1230 – US Feb PPI
1345 – Canada Rate Decision
1400 – US Jan Factory Orders
1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stocks Report
1800 – Fed Rate Decision

Earnings this week

• Today: Micron, Jabil, General Mills, Macy's
• Thursday: Accenture, Enel, Fedex, Darden Restaurants, Alibaba Group, Accenture, FedEx, PlanetLabs
• Friday: Carnival, XPeng

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq gained 0.5%, and the Dow added 0.1% as investors looked through oil near $100 and turned their attention to the Federal Reserve, while battered travel and alternative-asset names led the rebound. Delta jumped 6.6% and American Airlines gained 3.5% after both raised current-quarter revenue guidance, Uber rose 4.2% on plans to roll out robotaxis in 28 cities using Nvidia software, and Blackstone climbed 4.6% as financials recovered from last week’s private-credit scare. Lemonade jumped almost 16.0% after a Morgan Stanley upgrade, Western Digital rallied 9.6% on a stronger earnings outlook, and Swarmer surged 520.0% in its Nasdaq debut after pricing its IPO at $5 a share.
• Europe: The STOXX 600 rose 0.7%, London’s FTSE 100 gained 0.8%, Frankfurt added 0.7%, and Milan climbed 1.2% as utilities and energy steadied the region ahead of this week’s central-bank decisions. Brent stayed above $100, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut, and that kept the inflation debate very much alive, even as investors still found comfort in defensive pockets. Shell rose 1.7% and BP gained 2.2% on firmer crude, while Springer Nature jumped 12.8% on a better-than-expected 2026 outlook and Sartorius Stedim Biotech added 8.9% after setting new mid-term growth targets. Markets now wait to see whether the European Central Bank sounds calm or reaches for the inflation fire extinguisher.
• Asia: Asia was mixed on Tuesday. South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.6% and Taiwan’s Taiex gained 1.5%, while Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.1%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.1%, and Shanghai fell 0.9%. This morning, South Korea’s Kospi extended the rebound, opening more than 5% higher as easing oil prices and chip optimism supported risk appetite ahead of the Federal Reserve. Samsung Electronics climbed 2.8% after showcasing its latest HBM4E memory and benefiting from Nvidia’s disclosure that Samsung will produce its new inference chips, while Hyundai rose 3.2% and Kia 3.3% after expanding autonomous-driving ties with Nvidia. The region still looks chip-hungry, but China stayed cautious and the Fed is the next cue.

Volatility

• Volatility remains driven by macro events rather than company-specific news, with today’s Federal Reserve decision and Jerome Powell’s press conference as the key catalysts. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors are focused on whether the updated dot plot still points to rate cuts later this year and how the Fed assesses inflation risks linked to rising oil prices amid tensions involving Iran. A more cautious or hawkish tone could keep markets unsettled, even without a policy change.
• Recent data shows volatility has eased slightly but remains elevated. The VIX closed at 22.37 on 17 March, down modestly on the day, while shorter-term measures show mixed signals, with VIX1D at 17.55 and VIX9D at 22.36. This suggests some near-term event risk is being priced out ahead of the Fed, but uncertainty remains.
• SPX expected move: options pricing currently implies a move of around ±102 points, or ±1.52%, into Friday 20 March expiry, reflecting continued sensitivity to macro developments and the upcoming quarterly options expiry.
• Today’s skew check: the same-day SPX options chain shows no strong demand for downside protection, with near-the-money calls trading at slightly higher implied volatility than puts. This indicates a cautious but balanced positioning, rather than outright defensive hedging.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets are trading in a relatively narrow range ahead of the Fed decision, reflecting broader market caution. Bitcoin is holding near $74,100, Ethereum around $2,330, XRP near $1.53, and Solana just below $95, as investors wait for clearer signals on monetary policy and liquidity conditions.
• Institutional demand continues to provide support. On 17 March, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows, led by IBIT, while Ethereum ETFs also saw positive flows, with ETHA contributing meaningfully. This suggests that longer-term investors are still allocating to the asset class, even as short-term uncertainty persists.
• At the same time, derivatives positioning points to a more cautious tone beneath the surface. Recent options flow shows increased demand for downside protection in crypto-linked equities such as COIN and MSTR, as well as in IBIT, indicating that some investors are hedging risk into key macro events.
• Overall, the setup remains balanced: steady prices and ongoing inflows on one side, with defensive positioning limiting near-term upside conviction.

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries rallied again as oil prices eased lower in Asian hours Wednesday, with the benchmark 2-year yield edging below 3.66%, down more than a basis point ahead of today’s FOMC meeting (Fed not priced to deliver any rate moves at the next three meetings). The benchmark 10-year yield fell over two basis points to its lowest of the week , trading below 4.18%.
• Japan’s government bonds rallied on crude oil prices easing and stable risk sentiment, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield down more than two basis points and below 1.26% and the benchmark 10-year JGB yields dropping six basis points to below 2.22%.
• US high-yield corporate bonds rallied on stabilizing risk sentiment, if modestly so as the Bloomberg measure we track of high yield bond spreads versus treasuries tightened three basis points to 310 basis points a day after closing at the widest level since June of last year.

Commodities

• Brent crude drifted lower back toward USD 100, while WTI traded to a fresh weekly low near USD 92, with the discount between the two benchmarks widening to a near four-year high - developments that suggest some degree of normalisation. However, underlying conditions remain far from balanced. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, with only a limited number of vessels—primarily from Iran-aligned nations—transiting the narrow waterway. Sporadic attacks and the persistent threat of mines continue to constrain flows, tightening global availability of both crude and refined products. Some relief has emerged through increased pipeline flows from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, alongside resumed exports via Turkey from Northern Iraq. Nevertheless, these alternative routes only partially offset the disruption. Attention remains firmly on refinery margins, which continue to signal acute tightness in refined products—most notably diesel and jet fuel.
• Gold continues to struggle for momentum, with the risk of a deeper correction building on a break below the 50-day moving average, last at USD 4,978, while a break above USD 5,080 could signal underlying strength. Focus remains on the U.S. dollar, which has softened, and not least today’s FOMC meeting, where investors are seeking guidance after the recent surge in energy prices tempered expectations for rate cuts in 2026. Silver meanwhile continues to hold the USD 77.50 support line.

Currencies

• The US dollar weakened as risk sentiment continued its rebound Tuesday, with EURUSD testing the 1.1550 area in Asian trading hours Wednesday before easing back. The JPY was firmer than the euro as global bonds rallied and oil prices dropped back in Asia Wednesday, with USDJPY pushing as low as 158.57, close to a one-week low, before finding support. The Fed meets later today and is not expected to deliver any rate move or hint thereof, with the impact of any guidance complicated by Fed Chair Powell’s lame duck status as his term ends in May.
• The Norwegian krone jumped higher Tuesday, with EURNOK pushing below the range stretching back to early 2023 as it pushes on the 11.05 area early Wednesday. Over the last two weeks, the forward expectations for Norges Bank have risen, with the market now looking for high odds of a rate hike by the August Norges Bank meeting as the country absorbs a swell of revenue from its exports of oil and gas at sharply higher prices in coming months.

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