Market Quick Take – 19 August 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Wall Street flat as retailers and Jackson Hole loom; Europe steady with renewables and healthcare strong; Asia mixed with Nikkei at record and Hong Kong weaker; UK modestly higher on defensives.
• Volatility: VIX near 15 with a mild upward curve; options imply a daily S&P 500 swing of about 61 points, or 0.9%.
• Fixed Income:
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin slipped to $116,290 (−1.0%) and Ethereum to $4,310 (−3.6%); US spot BTC ETFs saw $68.7m net outflows led by IBIT and ARKB.
• Currencies: Tight ranges in FX after USD firmed a bit yesterday and overnight. NZD awaits RBNZ
• Commodities: Summer lull keeps key commodities locked in tight ranges
• Macro events: Canada Jul. CPI, US Jul. Housing Starts, New Zealand RBNZ rate announcement

Macro headlines

• The annual Economic Policy Symposium will kick off Thursday evening in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Chair Jerome Powell on Friday is expected to unveil the Fed's new policy framework. Powell's speech could give Fed watchers a fresh update on how much support there is to lower rates in September, as policymakers have become divided on when to resume rate cuts.
• Trump administration is reportedly considering taking a 10% stake in Intel, potentially making the US government its largest shareholder. This may involve converting CHIPS Act grants, totalling $10.9 billion, into equity, according to Bloomberg News.
• The US Housing Market Index fell to 32 in August 2025 from 33 in July, below the forecast of 34. Current sales conditions dropped to 35, future sales held at 43, and buyer traffic rose to 22. Builder price cuts slightly decreased to 37% from 38% in July.
• US President Donald Trump called Vladimir Putin to urge him to accept a trilateral gathering, potentially within two weeks, with Zelenskiy saying a bilateral gathering should not carry any conditions and that he would be willing to discuss territorial issues, and that he was pleased Trump had agreed to participate in security guarantees as part of any peace deal.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 1100 – EU Leaders to discuss Trump Meeting
• 1230 – Canada July CPI
• 1230 – US July Housing Starts and Building Permits
• 1400 – US Fed’s Bowman to speak
• 0100 – China Rate Announcement
• 0200 – New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate announcement
• 0300 – New Zealand RBNZ press conference
  

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Today: Home Depot, Medtronic
• Wed: TJX Companies, Lowe’s, Analog Devices, Estee Lauder, Target
• Thu: Walmart, Intuit, Ross Stores, Workday

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA
U.S. stocks were little changed, with the S&P 500 steady and investors awaiting earnings from Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe’s alongside Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Traders also looked ahead to Fed minutes for more signals on September rate-cut prospects. Palo Alto Networks slipped 0.5% at the close ahead of results; after the bell it beat with revenue +16% to $2.5b and adj. earnings per share $0.95 vs $0.89, with ARR +32% to $5.6b and RPO $15.8b, lifting shares after-hours. Intel dropped 3.7% after reports of White House interest in a 10% stake but rallied more than 5% in late trade after SoftBank agreed to buy $2b in shares. Solar stocks jumped as Washington clarified clean energy tax credits, lifting First Solar by 9.7% and Sunrun by 11.0%, while Dayforce soared 26% on buyout interest.

Europe
The STOXX 600 ended flat as geopolitical talks in Washington framed sentiment and banks weighed, with BNP Paribas and Nordea both softer. Renewables took the spotlight as Vestas surged 15% on supportive U.S. tax guidance, while Novo Nordisk gained 6.6% after the FDA cleared Wegovy for liver disease, extending momentum in weight-loss drugs.

Asia
Regional markets were split. The Nikkei rose 0.9% to a record high as a weaker yen buoyed autos, with Toyota and Honda advancing, and Fast Retailing also firming. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng slipped 0.4% as property debt risks kept pressure on developers, dragging financials lower despite a small lift in Alibaba. Mainland Chinese shares rose modestly, leaving the overall tone mixed.

UK
The FTSE 100 added 0.2% as defensives and healthcare led. AstraZeneca gained 1.3% and BAE Systems advanced 1.7% with defense demand still strong. BP edged 0.5% higher on continued buybacks, while Standard Chartered rebounded 2.6% after last week’s probe-driven drop.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin closed at $116,290, down 1.0% on the day, while Ethereum fell 3.6% to $4,310, both on the official 00:00 UTC cut. ETF flows stayed negative, with US-listed spot bitcoin funds losing $68.7m led by IBIT and ARKB outflows, partly offset by smaller inflows to Bitwise. Ethereum funds also recorded net redemptions, reflecting softer sentiment across majors.

Volatility

The VIX held at 14.99 with the short-dated VIX1D at 6.5, keeping the curve in mild contango to the August future at 15.8. At Monday’s S&P 500 close of 6,449, option pricing implies a daily move of about 61 points, or 0.9%, as traders brace for retail earnings and Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields edged slightly higher yesterday, with the benchmark 2-year yield pushing at the 3.77% high of the recent range and the benchmark 10-year yield posting a marginal new local at 4.35% before edging back slightly.
• Yields at the long end of the curve in Europe pushed back lower after Friday saw new cycle highs for 10-year and 30-year German yields, with the benchmark 10-year Bund yield pushed back to 2.76% after Friday’s five-month high of 2.79%, while the 30-year Buxl yield only edged back a single basis point to 3.34% after hitting a 14-year high on Friday.
• Japan’s government bond yields rose overnight and are pushing on cycle highs, with the benchmark 10-year JGB yield at 1.60% versus July’s post-2008 high of 1.62%. The benchmark 2-year benchmark JGB yield likewise rose slightly 0.85%, trading 4-5 bps below the post-2008 highs from March.

Commodities

• Gold trades softer after the dollar edged higher on Monday but remains locked in a relatively tight range around USD 3,350, with traders watching US-led efforts to end the war in Ukraine and awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s keynote at Jackson Hole on Friday.

• Crude oil holds within a narrow USD 65–67 range, with peak summer holidays muting activity while the market weighs the prospects of a Ukraine ceasefire and the IEA’s warning of a potential record supply glut next year.

  Currencies

• FX mostly caught in tight ranges with some marginal JPY firmness settling in overnight after weakness yesterday, while the Euro rebounded slightly versus the US dollar to 1.1665 in the late Asian session after selling off from 1.1710+ yesterday to as low as 1.1640 overnight.
• NZD awaits a likely 25-bp rate cut and guidance from the RBNZ at its meeting tonight (Wednesday in NZ). AUDNZD has traded in a tight range between 1.0885 and 1.0995 for over a month. NZD could be sensitive to guidance as only one further cut for the cycle is currently priced into the forward curve.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.