Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy

Global Head of Investment Strategy
Apple’s latest results underscored why it remains one of the most valuable and resilient companies in global markets. In the September quarter, Apple achieved record revenue and profits, setting a positive tone for the all-important holiday season. The stock rose about 4% in after-hours trading, touching an all-time high.
Key numbers:
Chief Executive Tim Cook said the results marked a September-quarter record for both iPhone and services. The figures show Apple’s ecosystem remains resilient and deeply embedded in consumers’ lives as the company heads into the strongest shopping season of the year.
The new iPhone 17 line-up was the main driver of growth. iPhone sales rose 6% to USD 49 billion, slightly below expectations due to supply bottlenecks in some models. The combination of higher price points on the Pro and Pro Max models and strong initial demand boosted revenue, even as unit volumes stayed relatively stable.
Apple’s Chief Financial Officer, Kevan Parekh, said the company expects total revenue to grow 10–12% year on year in the December quarter, with double-digit iPhone growth. That is well above market expectations of 6%. The refreshed design, improved battery life and upgraded camera systems appear to have reignited the upgrade cycle after years of modest refreshes.
Apple’s momentum suggests a broad upgrade wave could extend well into 2026. The iPhone remains the backbone of Apple’s business, accounting for roughly half of total revenue, and the early signs for the iPhone 17 cycle point to sustained demand.
Apple’s services division has become the company’s most powerful profit engine. Services revenue rose 15% to USD 28.8 billion, setting an all-time high and pushing full-year services revenue above USD 100 billion for the first time.
The business includes the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Pay, and payments from Google to remain the default search provider in Safari. It now represents more than a quarter of Apple’s total sales and carries gross margins above 75%, roughly double those of hardware.
The steady expansion of Apple’s installed base of active devices has turned services into a structural growth driver. Every new iPhone, iPad or Mac sold increases the company’s recurring revenue stream and deepens customer loyalty. The growing subscription footprint gives Apple visibility into future earnings and reduces reliance on one-off product cycles.
The geographical picture was mixed. Europe delivered strong performance, with sales up 15% year on year to USD 28.7 billion, supported by strong iPhone and Mac demand. The Americas rose 6% to USD 44.2 billion, while Japan and the rest of Asia-Pacific posted double-digit growth.
China was the weak spot, with revenue down 4% to USD 14.5 billion. Competition from local brands and lingering trade friction weighed on results. Apple has been diversifying production to India to reduce its dependency on China, a move that could ease tariff exposure in future quarters.
Apple’s gross margin of 47.2% beat expectations, supported by a higher services mix and strong cost discipline. Operating income reached USD 32.4 billion, equivalent to a margin above 31%.
The company continues to return substantial cash to shareholders, repurchasing around USD 20 billion in shares during the quarter and maintaining a dividend of USD 0.26 per share payable on 13 November. The balance sheet remains robust, with nearly USD 36 billion in cash and equivalents.
Apple offered an upbeat outlook for the December quarter, forecasting revenue growth of 10–12% and double-digit iPhone sales. That guidance signals confidence in consumer demand despite economic uncertainty.
However, the report also highlighted areas to watch. Apple’s ambitions in artificial intelligence continue to lag its peers, with the next major Siri upgrade delayed until 2026. While rivals are building AI platforms, Apple’s approach is more device-centric and privacy-focused. The company aims to integrate AI quietly into its products rather than compete directly with chatbots and cloud services.
Regulatory scrutiny remains another risk. Apple’s tight control over its ecosystem and its lucrative deal with Google face constant legal and political attention. Any forced changes could pressure services margins, though recent court rulings have so far favoured Apple.
In the coming quarters, three indicators will be crucial:
Apple’s ability to balance these dynamics will determine whether it can extend its record run. The company’s transformation from a hardware vendor to a platform ecosystem gives it more stability than in past cycles, but expectations are high and execution must remain flawless.
This quarter underlined Apple’s evolution. Slower iPhone unit growth was more than offset by rising margins, growing services, and record cash generation. The business is now driven as much by recurring income as by product launches.
For investors, the story remains one of consistency and resilience. Few companies combine Apple’s scale, loyalty, and profitability. The devices may change each year, but the formula endures: sell the hardware once, and the ecosystem for life.
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