The Week Ahead: Netflix, ASML & TSMC headline earnings season as markets wait on key US inflation data and Warsh testimony for Fed next steps

Is the Fed going to hike rates? We get closer to answer this week with the latest inflation readings from the US. We also get to hear from new Fed chair Kevin Warsh as he testifies in Congress. Earnings season comes around with the big banks on Wall Street the first to report. But the main focus is likely to be elsewhere with earnings due this week from Taiwan's TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, and the Netherlands' ASML, Europe's largest company and a major semiconductor name. Oil and the Middle East conflict remain firmly on investors’ radars and we continue to look for signs of re/de-escalation.

Here’s the key events to watch over the next week.

Monday, 13 July

The week starts in relatively quiet fashion with a couple of central bank speakers in action – the Fed’s Christopher Waller and Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill. Wholesale inflation data for Germany is the only economic release of note.

Tuesday, 14 July

The key report this week is the US consumer inflation print, which will drive expectations around the next move by the Federal Reserve ahead of its 28-29 July meeting. Last month US CPI YoY came in a 4.2% for the headline CPI, the hottest since April 2023 and up from 3.8% a month before. The 2.9% for core, up from 2.8% last month, was hottest since September 2025. The Cleveland Fed nowcast points to 3.9% CPI in June, with core CPI at 2.85%. Even if the June reading ticks down the re-escalation of tensions in the Middle East in recent days underscores the inflation risks moving towards the upside.

Fed chair Kevin Warsh is likely to remain tight-lipped on what inflation mean for US interest rates even as he goes before Congress for the twice-yearly monetary policy grilling by the House and Senate, lasting for two days. Trade data from China is also due up.

Earnings season kicks off properly on Wall Street with Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo all due to report. S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise more than 23% in Q2 from last year.

In the UK, Rio Tinto trading update plus full-year results from Watches of Switzerland. 

Wednesday, 15 July

Overnight in Asia markets will look to the latest fixed asset investment, industrial production, retail sales and GDP figures from China for a steer. Eurozone industrial production numbers are due later in the morning ahead of US PPI inflation data for June. PPI increased 1.1% in May, sending the YoY rate to 6.5%, the highest since November 2022.

The Bank of Canada is expected to leave interest rates on hold at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive meeting, with officials making it clear that the bar to move in either direction is quite high. 

Earnings are due from Morgan Stanley and Johnson & Johnson. We also get first half results from semiconductor equipment maker ASML plus trading updates from Barratt Redrow and ICG.

Thursday, 16 July

Semiconductor stocks face a stern test with results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). Expectations are running high as the AI supercycle continues to underpin soaring demand. However, as Samsung found out, even a 19x rise in profits can fall foul of sky-high expectations.

UK monthly GDP figures are due out alongside a slate of data on industrial production, trade and service sector activity. This comes ahead of a 10yr gilt auction. Later on US retail sales, weekly unemployment claims data and the Philly Fed manufacturing index offer a smattering of economic indicators. 

Results come from Dunelm, Experian, Trustpilot, SSE and Ocado in the UK, while on Wall Street earnings updates from GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth and Netflix form the highlights. 

Friday, 17 July

Final CPI data for the Eurozone and some import pricing data for the US complete the inflation story for the week before the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment report. The inflation expectations survey will be closely watched by markets. In June one-year-ahead inflation expectations inched down from 4.8% to 4.6%, way ahead of the 3.4% reading in February before the onset of the Iran conflict.

Burberry and United Utilities report earnings on the FTSE, while 3M is the only major US stock reporting.