Weekly market recap & what’s ahead

8 September 2025 (recap week of 1 to 5 September 2025)

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Headlines & introduction

Markets digested softer US jobs data, tariff noise, and diverging tech performance. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher, while the Dow slipped as defensives outperformed. Europe weakened on exporters and banks, and Asia steadied late on Chinese liquidity support. Commodities diverged: gold set records, oil swung on OPEC+ speculation. Bond yields fell as investors priced September cuts. Overall, optimism persisted, but event risks kept sentiment cautious.

Market pulse: calm surface, but risks remain just below.

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Equities

US stocks were mixed as macro data boosted cut hopes while sector moves diverged. Broadcom surged on AI demand and an OpenAI deal, while Nvidia and AMD slipped as investors rotated. Lululemon plunged after cutting guidance, while Amazon rose on retail strength. In Europe, Airbus, BNP Paribas, and Munich Re weighed indices. Asia finished firmer, with Hong Kong and China lifted by liquidity measures, offsetting Japan and Korea’s chip-related swings.

Market pulse: tech outperformed, but cyclicals and retail lagged.

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Volatility

Volatility stayed contained despite headline noise. The VIX briefly spiked above 20 before easing to 18.6. Short-term gauges like VIX1D showed brief anxiety but settled quickly. SPX implied moves narrowed from ±43 early to ±25 points by week’s end, reflecting lower expectations for swings after jobs data. Hedging demand flowed into volatility ETFs, but no panic emerged. Investors appear prepared for upcoming CPI, keeping light protection in place.

Market pulse: subdued conditions, with quiet hedging activity.

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Digital assets

Bitcoin traded steadily around 111,000 USD, while ether held near 4,300–4,400 USD. ETF flows diverged: IBIT saw inflows mid-week, while ETHA faced heavier outflows late in the week. On-chain activity stayed strong, with Ethereum stablecoin transfers at records. Altcoins were mixed, with Solana and XRP firmer, while Dogecoin rallied briefly. Crypto equities mirrored sentiment, with Coinbase following ETF moves and miners responding to output updates. Macro cues drove trading more than crypto-specific headlines.

Market pulse: steady prices but diverging ETF demand.

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Fixed income

Bonds rallied as weak US hiring data reinforced cut bets. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to about 4.1%, while the 2-year also fell as markets priced multiple cuts by year-end. Futures now imply easing beginning in September. European yields retreated from highs, while Japanese bonds rallied amid political uncertainty. The focus shifted from inflation persistence to growth risk, with investors seeking duration.

Market pulse: yields slid as growth concerns took priority.

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Commodities

Precious metals led the week. Gold reached a record near 3,580 USD and silver topped 41 USD before easing, boosted by lower yields and central-bank demand. Oil swung between losses on OPEC+ supply speculation and rebounds as Russian flow risks lingered. Brent briefly dipped but recovered, leaving prices volatile. Industrial metals like copper consolidated earlier gains, reflecting muted growth sentiment. Commodities reflected both haven demand and energy uncertainty.

Market pulse: gold strength contrasted with oil volatility.

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Currencies

Currencies reflected shifting policy expectations. The US dollar softened after weak jobs data, lifting EURUSD above July highs. The yen spiked on falling US yields but reversed as domestic politics added pressure. Sterling strengthened as UK yields eased, while commodity currencies diverged: NOK weakened with oil, CAD steadied on fiscal resilience. Emerging markets benefited from softer US yields. FX markets tracked central-bank divergence and commodity swings.

Market pulse: dollar weaker, yen volatile, euro and sterling firmer.

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Key takeaways

• Broadcom surged; Nvidia, AMD fell.
• Lululemon plunged; Amazon rose.
• Europe lagged on exporters and banks.
• Asia supported by Chinese liquidity.
• VIX mid-teens; SPX implied move ±25.
• Bitcoin steady; ETHA outflows, IBIT inflows.
• US 10y near 4.1%.
• Gold record highs; oil volatile.
• Dollar softened; yen whipsawed.
  

Market pulse: cautious optimism with risk events ahead.

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Looking ahead (8–12 September 2025)

This week brings high-impact events. August CPI (Thursday) precedes the Fed’s 17 September decision. Apple unveils the iPhone 17 on Tuesday, amid investor attention on the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Tech conference with Nvidia (Monday), Meta and Broadcom (Tuesday), and Microsoft (Wednesday). Oracle and GameStop report Tuesday; Adobe and Kroger follow Thursday. Critically, on Tuesday, 9 September, the BLS will release its preliminary payrolls benchmark revision (n.s.a.), aligning March non-farm payrolls with QCEW administrative data—a structural update that could reveal large downward adjustments.

Market pulse: macro data, mega-cap events, and a deep revision to payroll trends will set the tone.

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Conclusion

Markets closed steady, balancing weak macro data with selective equity strength. Bonds rallied on cut bets, while gold set records as havens drew demand. Oil’s swings highlighted supply risk, and currencies adjusted to diverging policy paths. With inflation data and corporate events ahead, last week’s calm may not hold.

Market pulse: relative calm, but catalysts approach quickly.