Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
The VIX surged sharply midweek, peaking above 60 on Monday (7 Apr), before retreating significantly (-35.75%) following Wednesday’s tariff pause announcement (10 Apr). Volatility again surged on renewed tariff escalation Thursday, closing at 40.72 (+21.12%) (11 Apr), reflecting continued high market uncertainty.
Bitcoin showed resilience, gaining amid market turmoil, rising +1.85% to above $81,000 by Thursday (10 Apr), and maintained lower volatility compared to equities. Ethereum and Solana also rebounded significantly following midweek relief (11 Apr). Crypto stocks like Marathon Digital (+17%) and MicroStrategy (+10.2%) rallied strongly.
The US Treasury market saw massive volatility, with yields on the 10-year benchmark spiking to nearly 4.65% midweek (8 Apr). Despite temporary stabilization, yields closed the week elevated near 4.50% (14 Apr), reflecting investor concerns over fiscal stability amid tariff-related pressures.
Gold hit a fresh record high at $3,220 by Friday (11 Apr), driven by market instability and tariff uncertainties. Oil prices saw significant swings, briefly dipping below $60 before recovering slightly, reflecting global recession fears and volatile trade conditions.
The US dollar experienced extreme volatility, weakening significantly against safe-haven currencies (JPY, EUR, CHF) as tariff uncertainties undermined investor confidence. EURUSD briefly surged above 1.1400 (14 Apr), and USDJPY dropped below 143.00, demonstrating heightened risk sensitivity in currency markets.