Market Quick Take – 4 September 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: U.S. tech strength offset cyclicals; Europe rebounded as bond jitters eased; Hong Kong slipped as property and defensives unwound gains
• Volatility: VIX mid-teens, calm trading
• Digital Assets: BTC ~$111k, ETH ~$4.4k, ETF flows mixed, DeFi lending up, miners report higher output
• Fixed Income: Easing stress on global bond markets as US treasury yields set the tone
• Currencies: USD adrift as sterling gets a boost from easing pressure on global bond markets.
• Commodities: Oil drops on OPEC+ supply risk. Gold and silver rally stalls
• Macro events: US Aug ADP Employment Change, PMIs and ISM Services

Macro headlines

• The US Fed Beige Book showed very little to no growth across most of the US in recent weeks. Fed contacts reported that consumers are spending less as wages aren’t rising as fast as prices, with price rises noted in every region. Of the Fed’s 12 districts, 11 described static employment levels, and one district reported a decline.
• US job openings fell by 176,000 to 7.18 million in July 2025, the lowest since September 2024 and below expectations of 7.4 million. Health care, arts, entertainment, recreation, mining, and logging saw significant declines. Regionally, the South had the largest drop (-161,000), while the West gained 113,000 openings.
• US manufactured goods orders decreased by 1.3% to $603.6 billion in July 2025, following a steep 4.8% decline. Transportation equipment orders fell (-9.5%), notably nondefense aircraft and parts (-32.7%). In contrast, orders for machinery, primary metals, and computers rose slightly.
• The UK Services PMI increased to 54.2 in August 2025, the highest since April 2024. New business saw strong growth, while employment declined for the eleventh month. Input and output prices rose sharply. Business sentiment improved, with 49% expecting higher activity next year.
• The Eurozone Composite PMI rose slightly to 51 in August 2025, up from 50.9, surpassing expectations of 50.7. This marks the third consecutive month of expanding private sector activity, with manufacturing rebounding (50.7) and slower growth in services (50.5). New orders increased for the first time in 15 months, despite a decline in export orders.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0730 – Germany Aug Construction PMI
1215 – US Aug ADP Employment Change
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1230 – US July Trade Balance
1345 – US Aug PMIs
1400 – US Aug ISM Services
1430 – EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
1600 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

Earnings this week

Today: Broadcom, Copart, Lululemon
Fri: Kroger
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: Wall Street finished mixed as tech gains outweighed broader softness. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% and the Nasdaq 1.0%, while the Dow dipped 24 points as financials and energy lagged. Softer JOLTS and a 1.3% drop in factory orders firmed rate-cut bets and eased yields. Alphabet jumped 9.1% on a favorable antitrust ruling; Apple added 3.8% on steady search-payment economics. Macy’s surged over 20% on better-than-feared results and outlook. After hours, Figma fell about 14% as revenue guidance underwhelmed versus elevated expectations despite 41% y/y growth. Salesforce slipped ~6% after guiding cautiously for Q3 despite a clean top- and bottom-line beat.
• Europe: European stocks rebounded, with the Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 up 0.7% after the prior session’s rates-led selloff. Tech led as SAP, ASML, and Nokia climbed up to 3%. Industrials and luxury participated, with Airbus, Schneider Electric, and LVMH firmer as the bond move cooled. Pockets of weakness persisted: Swiss Life slipped on softer earnings, while M&G fell despite modest profit and AUM growth. The tone improved as yields stabilized, but fiscal headlines and supply expectations kept a lid on cyclicals.
• Asia: The Hang Seng fell 0.6% to 25,343, extending losses as global fiscal concerns and tariff uncertainty weighed. A 15-month-high services PMI limited the downside, but profit-taking hit defense names after recent strength, and property lagged. Regulators opened an insider-trading probe involving HKEX staff, adding a local headline drag. Henderson Land (−3.7%), Swire Properties (−3.2%), and BYD (−2.5%) led decliners, while broader mainland sentiment stayed mixed after Monday’s rally.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are steady but showed slight weakness overnight. Bitcoin trades near $111k and ether around $4.38k, both marginally lower. ETF flows were mixed: IBIT +$9.8m and ETHA +$65.8m on Sep 3, recovering from prior outflows. Altcoins remain range-bound, with Solana ~$207 and XRP ~$2.8. DeFi lending activity is surging, up 72% year-to-date as institutions adopt stablecoins and tokenized assets. Meanwhile, miners Riot and CleanSpark reported strong August output, defying rising mining difficulty. Crypto-linked equities were mixed: IBIT +1.3%, ETHA +4.9%, while miners like Riot −2.7% and CleanSpark −2.0% slipped.

Volatility

• Equity volatility remains calm. The VIX eased to 16.35, down almost 5%, with short-dated measures also falling, pointing to steady trading. The futures curve remains modestly upward, suggesting mild caution further out but no stress today. Barclays noted that recent record short positions in VIX futures are balanced by strong inflows into long volatility ETPs, reducing fears of a “short squeeze” like 2018. Expected SPX move from options pricing today is about ±26 points (≈0.4%), with the index last near 6,448. Upcoming US data, including jobless claims and ISM services, could provide catalysts.

Fixed Income

• US yields retreated all along the yield curve yesterday, with front end yields settling toward the bottom of the ranger and long yields so much in focus of late also settling lower, as the benchmark 10-year treasury yield fell several basis points to trade near the bottom of the recent range at 4.20% yesterday, while the 30-year benchmark dropped back some 10 basis points to close near 4.90%
• European and Japanese yields took their lead from US counterparts, as sovereign bonds rallied yesterday. The benchmark German 30-year BUXL fell some five basis points by the close yesterday to 3.46% after trading intraday as high as 3.43%, a post-2011 high. Similarly, after benchmark 30-year Japanese government bond yields posted their highest close since issuance began in 2000 at 3.30% yesterday, overnight, the yield dropped back about three basis points to trade near 3.27% in late Asian trading hours.

Commodities

• Crude prices dropped sharply on reports that OPEC, contrary to expectations, may consider another supply increase at this weekend’s meeting—adding weight to concerns about an emerging supply glut next year. The news overshadowed concerns about Russia’s export capacity amid sanctions and Ukrainian drone strikes. Adding to the pressure, API reported the biggest build since March at Cushing, the WTI delivery hub, while the market awaits the delayed EIA storage update later today.
• Gold briefly touched a fresh record near USD 3,580 and silver reached USD 41.40 before profit-taking triggered a sharp reversal. Attention now turns to Friday’s US jobs report, which will need to confirm the recent jump in rate cut expectations. While Fed independence worries, monetary easing, and geopolitical risks continue to underpin support, the loss of near-term momentum may trigger some additional profit taking.

Currencies

• The US dollar remains adrift in a range as traders seem unable to find directional conviction. After briefly touching above 149.00 yesterday on the rout in global bonds, USDJPY dropped back below 148.00 before bouncing back again overnight as bonds rallied late yesterday.
• Sterling firmed somewhat after testing new local lows on the stress in global sovereign bond markets that eased yesterday. After GBPUSD tested three-week lows below 1.3391 and posting a low yesterday near 1.3333, the pair rallied back above 1.3400, trading near 1.3425 this morning in early European hours.

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