Morning Brew July 27 2021
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk off again - weak Q3 except USD
This is my last morning brew for the next three weeks as I will be travelling in Asia. Please use our global Markets call to stay up to date: https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/podcast
Equities traded lower yesterday, mainly driven by better than expected employment data which reiterates the “higher rates for longer” theme and raises the fear of secondary effects.
Germanys inflation rose to double digits at the same time as the government announced a ceiling on gas costs that will cost €200 bio.
UK just reported better than expected GDP at 4.4% vs an expectation of 2.9%
Russian will hold a ceremony to annex the four regions of Ukraine
So far this quarter the USD Index has gained 7.6%, GBPUSD has lost 11.5% and oil and Gold has lost 22.2% and 8.6%.
The US 500 is down 3.8% in Q3 and 22.6 YTD, the Nasdaq 2.6% and 31% and the Dax 6.3% and 34%.
Today watch out for the US PMI and the EU Inflation data.
Trade carefully and have your risk firm in control via stops, options or a controlled long term strategy.
US: PCE & Core PCE (Aug)
US: Chicago PMI (Sep)
US: U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep, final)
US: U of Michigan 5-10-year Inflation Expectations (Sep, final)
Japan: Unemployment Rate (Aug)
Japan: Industrial Production (Aug)
Japan: Retail Sales (Aug)
Japan: Housing Starts (Aug)
Japan: Consumer Confidence Index (Sep)
China: NBS Manufacturing & Non-manufacturing PMIs (Sep)
China: Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
HK: Retail Sales (Aug)
India: RBI Policy Meeting (Sep)
UK: GDP (Q2, 2nd)
France: HICP (Sep, flash)
Germany: Unemployment (Sep)
Eurozone: HICP (Sep, flash)