Morning Brew March 25 2025

Good morning,

US Equities had a great day yesterday on hopes the tariffs next week mey be less broad than feared. Traders took the day to buy stocks at a discount.

Nvidia gained 3.1%, AMD 7%, and Tesla 11.9% in the best day since November. BYD`s announcement of record sales could not sour the mood.  Bitcoin rose 4% yesterday and pulled crypto stocks higher with MicroStrategy gaining 10% and Coinbase 7%. Bayer dropped 6.9%

In economic data, the US Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in March 2025 from 52.7 in February, below the expected 51.8, but the Services PMI came in much better at 54.3 vs 50.8

The S&P 500 ended the day +1.76% higher, the Nasdaq +2.27% and the Dow +1.42%, Volumes were tiny at 1/3 below Friday

US 10 year Yields gained to 4.33 and their EU counterpart remains at 2.78%,  the USD Index falls to 104.26, EURUSD 1.0803 the Yen weakens to 150.40 and GBPUSD 1.2920.

Gold and Silver are trading at 3017 and 33.15.

US Politics remain in the spotlight as :

• Donald Trump imposed tariffs of 25% on countries that purchase Venezuelan oil.
• DJT also stated said tariffs on cars are coming soon, and that he may give "a lot of countries" breaks on tariffs, but provided no details.
• The White House accidentally added a journalist to a chat group planning the attack on Yemen.
• Hyundai Steel will invest USD 5.8 billion along with Hyundai Motor to build a plant in Louisiana
• Ukraine and the US will meet Riyadh

The revitalization is a key topic, as Jacob also points out below, the key question will be if Europe manages to actually manages to act and the current optimism needs the actions that follow. Euro zone shares have risen 12% since Trump's inauguration on January 20, while U.S. stocks have fallen by 6.7%.

Forget MAGA—this is Europe’s moment to make itself great and independent again!

• Europe is undergoing a structural shift toward strategic independence, driven by deglobalisation, rising defence spending, and a renewed focus on domestic resilience.
• This transformation is creating long-term investment opportunities in sectors like defence, energy, infrastructure, and technology, all backed by strong political and fiscal momentum.
• A basket of European stocks aligned with this theme offers investors a way to gain targeted exposure to the companies best positioned to benefit (see the stock list at the end of the article and the shortlist here).
• Key risks include political fragmentation, slow policy execution, and stretched valuations—especially in defence stocks that have already seen significant gains.

Broad demand for metals in week that saw USD position flip to a net short

• Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 18 March, 2025.
• In forex, a ninth consecutive week of USD selling saw the non-commercial position flip to a net short for the first time in five months.
• Commodities were mixed with demand from money manages being concentrated in Brent crude, gasoline, precious and industrial metals as well as sugar.
• The main contracts being exposed to net selling were WTI crude, diesel, natural gas, corn and soybeans

Tuesday, March 25

• US New Home Sales (February):A key housing market indicator[6].
• EU New Car Registrations (YoY) Reflecting consumer demand trends in Europe[

Wednesday, March 26

• Japan PPI – Producer Prices
• Australia CPI :Cosumer Prices
• UK Inflation Data (February): Important for gauging price pressures and monetary policy[5].
• US Durable Goods Orders (February):A measure of industrial activity and investment trends[5][6].

Thursday, March 27

• US -GDP Final Reading (Q4 2024):** An update on economic growth

Friday, March 28**

• Germany Unemployment Rate: Labor market health in Europe’s largest economy[5].
• UK GDP
• France Inflation
• Japan Inflation Data: Critical for Bank of Japan policy outlook[7].
• US Core PCE Price Index (February) The Fed's preferred inflation gauge-