Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew March 8 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  50 BPS in March now likely


Good Morning,

“The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated," was the phrase that shook markets yesterday.

The expectation of a 50 BPS hike on March 22 soared from 20% to 65% and the peak rate rises to 5.65%, 2 year yields rise to above 5%. The USD Index jumps from 104.10 to 105.75.

EURUSD is now at 1.0535, GBPUSD 1.1824 USDJPY 137.66 and Gold and Silver dropped to 1812 and 20.05. Gold is at support level, is we break lower, 1750 would be the next strong level, Silver 18.75.

Equities dropped with the Dow down 1.7% the S&P 500 1.5% and the Nasdaq 1.25%. The Ger40 receded from near 15700 to 15520.

Today’s agenda is thin again except for the Fed`s beige book being released at 20:00. One can assume that the data was known to Powell before yesterday’s speech so I would not expect any disinflationary content.,

Traders will digest the new levels and adjust positions today and focus on the Q&A session with Powell.

Wednesday:

Data: EU GDP Revised YY, US International Trade, CA Trade Balance,, Ca Rate decision

Earnings:   Legal & General adidas AG Brown-Forman Geberit AG Thales SA China Unicom China United Network Ping An Bank

Thursday

Data: Japan GDP, China PPI, CPI, US Initial Jobless claims

Earnings Wheaton Precious Metals Ulta Beauty Hannover Rueck Deutsche Post PRADA Contemporary Amperex

Friday

Data: DE HICP, UK GDP,US  Nonfarm Payrolls,

Earnings:   Daimler Truck Holding DiDi Global Inc ZTE BNP Oracle JD.com

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures

CH3 will expire 09 Mar 2023

FPH3 will expire 09 Mar 2023

ADH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

BPH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

DXH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

E7H3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

ECH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

JGB1H3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

JYH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

M6AH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

M6BH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

M6EH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

M6JH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

MPH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

MSFH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

NEH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

NOH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

PJYH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

RFH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

RPH will expire 10 Mar 2023

RYH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

SEH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

SFH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

 

Expiring CFDs

AUDUSDADMAR23 will expire 08 Mar 2023

EURJPYRYMAR23 will expire 08 Mar 2023

EURUSDECMAR23 will expire 08 Mar 2023

GASOILUKMAR23 will expire 08 Mar 2023

GBPUSDBPMAR23 will expire 08 Mar 2023

USDINDEXMAR23 will expire 09 Mar 2023

 

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.