Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew March 8 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  50 BPS in March now likely


Good Morning,

“The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated," was the phrase that shook markets yesterday.

The expectation of a 50 BPS hike on March 22 soared from 20% to 65% and the peak rate rises to 5.65%, 2 year yields rise to above 5%. The USD Index jumps from 104.10 to 105.75.

EURUSD is now at 1.0535, GBPUSD 1.1824 USDJPY 137.66 and Gold and Silver dropped to 1812 and 20.05. Gold is at support level, is we break lower, 1750 would be the next strong level, Silver 18.75.

Equities dropped with the Dow down 1.7% the S&P 500 1.5% and the Nasdaq 1.25%. The Ger40 receded from near 15700 to 15520.

Today’s agenda is thin again except for the Fed`s beige book being released at 20:00. One can assume that the data was known to Powell before yesterday’s speech so I would not expect any disinflationary content.,

Traders will digest the new levels and adjust positions today and focus on the Q&A session with Powell.

Wednesday:

Data: EU GDP Revised YY, US International Trade, CA Trade Balance,, Ca Rate decision

Earnings:   Legal & General adidas AG Brown-Forman Geberit AG Thales SA China Unicom China United Network Ping An Bank

Thursday

Data: Japan GDP, China PPI, CPI, US Initial Jobless claims

Earnings Wheaton Precious Metals Ulta Beauty Hannover Rueck Deutsche Post PRADA Contemporary Amperex

Friday

Data: DE HICP, UK GDP,US  Nonfarm Payrolls,

Earnings:   Daimler Truck Holding DiDi Global Inc ZTE BNP Oracle JD.com

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures

CH3 will expire 09 Mar 2023

FPH3 will expire 09 Mar 2023

ADH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

BPH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

DXH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

E7H3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

ECH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

JGB1H3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

JYH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

M6AH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

M6BH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

M6EH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

M6JH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

MPH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

MSFH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

NEH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

NOH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

PJYH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

RFH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

RPH will expire 10 Mar 2023

RYH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

SEH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

SFH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023

 

Expiring CFDs

AUDUSDADMAR23 will expire 08 Mar 2023

EURJPYRYMAR23 will expire 08 Mar 2023

EURUSDECMAR23 will expire 08 Mar 2023

GASOILUKMAR23 will expire 08 Mar 2023

GBPUSDBPMAR23 will expire 08 Mar 2023

USDINDEXMAR23 will expire 09 Mar 2023

 

 

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