Morning Brew July 27 2021
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Ukraine still key for markets.
US Indexes closed a little lower yesterday but record a small gain over night along with the dax and Eurostoxx relative to the Futures close. For the first two months, the S&P500 has lost 8.2%, the Nasdaq 12.1%, the Dax is down 9% YTD an the SMI
Russia is becoming more and more isolated internationally and threatened with retaliatory measures against the sanctions.
The War in Ukraine remains fierce and Russia seems to be preparing a massive attack on Kyiv, ceasefire talks yesterday did not conclude military action. More and more western companies are withdrawing from the Russian market or selling stakes. Pressure on big Tech and social media companies is rising to follow.
The Ruble tumbled yesterday and the Russian Stock market remained closed.
EURUSD rose to 1.1210 and GBPUSD to 1.3420, the USD Index 96.80. Implied volatility rises to 8.5% for a one Month at the money EURUSD option, the highest since early 2020.
Bitcoin jumps 5000 points over night to 43400 on Ruble restrictions.
Gold and Silver remain fairly calm at 1909 and 24.45 despite worries Russia might liquidate reserves, Oil (Crude) rises to 97.25.
EV makers Tesla and Rivan jumped higher by 7.5% and 6.5%
Todays Economic Data will be international PMIs, CH at 9:30, DE at 9:55 and EU at 10:00, US follows at 15:45. UK Mortgage Data at 10:30 and the German CPI at 14:00
A surge in inflation is expected on the war in Ukraine and one of the key thing to watch will be the assessment of central banks on that. Will they focus on the temporary nature of rising prices or the necessity to fight them.
Trade cautiously as news around Ukraine could cause jumps at any point in time.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.