Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Ukraine still key for markets.
Good Morning,
US Indexes closed a little lower yesterday but record a small gain over night along with the dax and Eurostoxx relative to the Futures close. For the first two months, the S&P500 has lost 8.2%, the Nasdaq 12.1%, the Dax is down 9% YTD an the SMI
Russia is becoming more and more isolated internationally and threatened with retaliatory measures against the sanctions.
The War in Ukraine remains fierce and Russia seems to be preparing a massive attack on Kyiv, ceasefire talks yesterday did not conclude military action. More and more western companies are withdrawing from the Russian market or selling stakes. Pressure on big Tech and social media companies is rising to follow.
The Ruble tumbled yesterday and the Russian Stock market remained closed.
EURUSD rose to 1.1210 and GBPUSD to 1.3420, the USD Index 96.80. Implied volatility rises to 8.5% for a one Month at the money EURUSD option, the highest since early 2020.
Bitcoin jumps 5000 points over night to 43400 on Ruble restrictions.
Gold and Silver remain fairly calm at 1909 and 24.45 despite worries Russia might liquidate reserves, Oil (Crude) rises to 97.25.
EV makers Tesla and Rivan jumped higher by 7.5% and 6.5%
Todays Economic Data will be international PMIs, CH at 9:30, DE at 9:55 and EU at 10:00, US follows at 15:45. UK Mortgage Data at 10:30 and the German CPI at 14:00
A surge in inflation is expected on the war in Ukraine and one of the key thing to watch will be the assessment of central banks on that. Will they focus on the temporary nature of rising prices or the necessity to fight them.
Trade cautiously as news around Ukraine could cause jumps at any point in time.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.