Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew June 24 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  The first half of 2024 is coming to an end - how will that go?


Good morning

On Friday, the Dow ended up 0.04% and 1.5% for the week, the S&P closed down 0.15% and for the week up 0.6%, the Nasdaq ended the day down 0.18% and flat for the week.

Nvidia fell to below 130 on Friday pulling the entire sector lower and there are many comments we may be topping out – these may or may not be correct. Calling the top of a bubble can be perilous. Volumes on US Exchanges at 17 bio vs 12 bio average due to expiry.

The US Dolar was strong, as US Business activity hit a 6 month high. The Yen remains very week at close to 160 against the USD and traders are watching for an intervention. The Euro remains under pressure due to political uncertainty and the looming trade dispute with China.

Gold and Silver were again fascinating as we had another sell-off on a Friday with now real news. We have seen this already on May 31, June 7 and then again, this weekend. As of now, Gold is trading 2322 and Silver 29.57, Bitcoin is lower at 62300.

Charu put out her FX Chartbook: US Presidential Debate is the Big Market Unknown

This week starts slow and picks up as we go, the highlight of the week is likely to be Friday where we have the month, quarter and half-year ultimo along the Feds key inflation gauge, the PCE. The big unknown is the Biden/ Trump debate on Thursday.

We are also heading into the French and UK elections with possible implications for GBP and the Euro.

The overall key topics will

  • the tech rally that either continues after the break of stalls,
  • the rate outlook for the US, currently 47 BPS of cuts are priced in by year end
  • The Middle East where a war in Lebanon looks possible
  • Trade frictions with China

Key Data: 

Monday
- Data  DE IFO Index, Waller & Daly, Speak

Tuesday
- Data Japan PPI, Canada CPI, US Consumer Confidence, Bowman & Cook speak.
Wednesday
- Data AU CPI, USS New Home Sales
Thursday
- Data EU Consumer Confidence, Turkey Rate decision, US Initial Jobless claims.,  GDP Final. Durable Goods Orders, US presidential Debate
Friday
- Data CH KOF indicator DE Unemployment rate US PCE, Barkin speaks, Ultimo

Expiries:

Physically Settled Futures
RCN4 will expire on 24 Jun 2024 at 09:00
NGN4 will expire on 25 Jun 2024 at 19:30
TTFMN4 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 19:30

Expiring CFDs

COPPERUSJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
CORNJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
GASOLINEUSJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
HEATINGOILJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
NATGASUSJUL24 will expire on 24 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SILVERJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SOYBEANOILJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SOYBEANSJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SUGARNYJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
WHEATJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00

 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

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