Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Morning Brew July 20 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Will the selloff continue
Good Morning
Equities had their worst day in 7 months but US and European Indexes can stabilize overnight. Yields dropped (US 10year broke the 1.20 to the downside) Bitcoin broke below the 30 mark and the USD Index is nearing 93. EURUSD trades 1.1780 and GBPUSD 1.3660. Gold and Silver trade at 25.15 and 1815.
Main reason cited is fear of the delta variant that is on the rise and may prevent a recovery as strong as hoped. n China, a troubled large property developer is more and more in trouble. While social media was full of doom and gloom comments, looking at the longer term moving averages, the uptrends in equities are not yet in any real dangers, shorter term, there is room for the downside (Dax closed below initial support and could fall to 14800) A bit worrying is there seems to be real danger of stagflation.
Markets movements will be largely driven by sentiment, there is not too much in terms of economic data, the Japanese June core inflation came at 0.2%, exactly on expectations and the most important earning release of the date was UBS with a strong result. UBS profit jumps 63% on strong wealth management and is 50% above analyst expectations. Netflix will follow later today.
At 14:30 CET US Housing starts are the only significant economic release.
Safe Trading
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Relevance | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
20 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | CPI, Core Nationwide YY | Jun | 0.2% |
20 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | CPI, Overall Nationwide | Jun | |
20 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | New Zealand | High | Milk Auctions | 20 Jul, w/e | |
20 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Housing Starts Number | Jun | 1.590M |
21 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | High | Exports YY | Jun | 46.2% |
21 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | High | Imports YY | Jun | 29.0% |
21 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | High | Trade Balance Total Yen | Jun | 460.0B |
22 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | High | Consumer Confidence | Jul | |
22 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | High | Business Climate Mfg | Jul | |
22 Jul 2021 | 13:45 | Euro Zone | High | ECB Refinancing Rate | Jul | 0.00% |
22 Jul 2021 | 13:45 | Euro Zone | High | ECB Deposit Rate | Jul | -0.50% |
22 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Initial Jobless Clm | 12 Jul, w/e | |
22 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | High | Existing Home Sales | Jun | 5.90M |
22 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | Euro Zone | High | Consumer Confid. Flash | Jul | -2.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Mfg PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Services PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Comp PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales MM | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales YY | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | 64.2 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Service Flash PMI | Jul | 59.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | 62.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Jul | 59.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | 60.1 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Composite PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Services PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | High | IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | High | Retail Sales MM | May | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Mfg PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Svcs PMI Flash | Jul |
(Refinitiv)
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Having created history’s most epic debt bubble, China boldly bets that fiscal stimulus to the tune o...