Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 20 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Will the selloff continue


Good Morning

Equities had their worst day in 7 months but US and European Indexes can stabilize overnight. Yields dropped (US 10year broke the 1.20 to the downside) Bitcoin broke below the 30 mark and the USD Index is nearing 93. EURUSD trades 1.1780 and GBPUSD 1.3660. Gold and Silver trade at 25.15 and 1815.

Main reason cited is fear of the delta variant that is  on the rise and may prevent a recovery as strong as hoped. n China, a troubled large property developer is more and more in trouble. While social media was full of doom and gloom comments, looking at the longer term moving averages, the uptrends in equities are not yet in any real dangers, shorter term, there is room for the downside (Dax closed below initial support and could fall to 14800) A bit worrying is there  seems to be real danger of stagflation.

Markets movements will be largely driven by sentiment, there is not too much in terms of economic data, the Japanese June core inflation came at 0.2%, exactly on  expectations and the most important earning release of the date was UBS with a strong result. UBS profit jumps 63% on strong wealth management and is 50% above analyst expectations. Netflix will follow later today.

At 14:30 CET US Housing starts are the only significant economic release.

Safe Trading

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Relevance

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

20 Jul 2021

01:30

Japan

High

CPI, Core Nationwide YY

Jun

0.2%

20 Jul 2021

01:30

Japan

High

CPI, Overall Nationwide

Jun

20 Jul 2021

14:00

New Zealand

High

Milk Auctions

20 Jul, w/e

20 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

High

Housing Starts Number

Jun

1.590M

21 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

High

Exports YY

Jun

46.2%

21 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

High

Imports YY

Jun

29.0%

21 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

High

Trade Balance Total Yen

Jun

460.0B

22 Jul 2021

08:00

Denmark

High

Consumer Confidence

Jul

22 Jul 2021

08:45

France

High

Business Climate Mfg

Jul

22 Jul 2021

13:45

Euro Zone

High

ECB Refinancing Rate

Jul

0.00%

22 Jul 2021

13:45

Euro Zone

High

ECB Deposit Rate

Jul

-0.50%

22 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

High

Initial Jobless Clm

12 Jul, w/e

22 Jul 2021

16:00

United States

High

Existing Home Sales

Jun

5.90M

22 Jul 2021

16:00

Euro Zone

High

Consumer Confid. Flash

Jul

-2.5

23 Jul 2021

01:00

Australia

High

Mfg PMI Flash

Jul

23 Jul 2021

01:00

Australia

High

Services PMI Flash

Jul

23 Jul 2021

01:00

Australia

High

Comp PMI Flash

Jul

23 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

High

Retail Sales MM

Jun

23 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

High

Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM

Jun

23 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

High

Retail Sales YY

Jun

23 Jul 2021

09:15

France

High

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

09:15

France

High

Markit Serv Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

09:15

France

High

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

09:30

Germany

High

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Jul

64.2

23 Jul 2021

09:30

Germany

High

Markit Service Flash PMI

Jul

59.5

23 Jul 2021

09:30

Germany

High

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

High

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Jul

62.5

23 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

High

Markit Serv Flash PMI

Jul

59.5

23 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

High

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Jul

60.1

23 Jul 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

High

Flash Composite PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

High

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

High

Flash Services PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

14:00

Brazil

High

IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

14:30

Canada

High

Retail Sales MM

May

23 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

High

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

High

Markit Mfg PMI Flash

Jul

23 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

High

Markit Svcs PMI Flash

Jul

(Refinitiv)

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