Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: The options market priced a $355 billion swing on Nvidia last night. The results were strong - revenue beat, EPS beat, guidance beat. The stock still went down after hours. That gap between what was priced and what delivered is exactly what options traders need to understand before the next big earnings print. Meanwhile, South Korea’s KOSPI surged 8% in a single session ...
A solid beat, a sliding stock, and an 8% surge in Seoul – the options market told the story before the close.
US equities closed out a three-day run of losses on Wednesday as US-Iran de-escalation signals eased Treasury yield pressure and investors positioned ahead of Nvidia’s closely-watched quarterly earnings. Nvidia reported after the bell, delivering strong numbers on every line, but the after-hours reaction did not match the magnitude the options market had priced in – a post-earnings implied volatility crush that was visible in the data well before the print landed.
US equities closed out a three-day run of losses on Wednesday as US-Iran de-escalation signals eased the Treasury yield pressure that had dragged markets lower since Monday. Nvidia reported after the bell: revenue of $81.6 billion and EPS of $1.87, clearing consensus of $78 billion and $1.76 – strong numbers by any measure, but the after-hours reaction was not the blowout the options market had priced in. The stock declined despite beating on every major line, consistent with the sell-the-news pattern it has shown in three of its last four earnings cycles.
The S&P 500 closed up 1.08% at 7,432.97, the Nasdaq 100 added 1.66% to 29,297.70, and the Russell 2000 outperformed at +2.56% as 10-year Treasury yields retreated from the near-year highs set earlier in the week. The standout was the KOSPI, South Korea’s benchmark equity index, which surged 8.11% to 7,793.72 – a move driven almost entirely by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which together make up roughly 42% of the index and supply the high-bandwidth memory chips that sit at the centre of Nvidia’s AI infrastructure.
Market regime: Low vol bull – VIX 17.44, 20-day realised vol 10.8% (decreasing), S&P 500 +6.82% above its 50-day moving average.
The VIX closed at 17.44, down 3.43%, holding below 18 and confirming the low-fear tone of the session. More notable was the one-day VIX (VIX1D) – the CBOE’s gauge of the expected overnight move for a single session – which spiked 21.88% to 16.21 ahead of Nvidia’s release. That reading will collapse at Thursday’s open now that the event has passed, releasing a significant amount of single-name implied vol. The CBOE S&P 500 put/call ratio (PCSX), which measures how much protective put trading is occurring relative to bullish call activity, fell 18.70% to 1.00, and the equity-only put/call ratio (PCC) dropped 14.86% to 0.711. Together those readings show investors rotating aggressively into calls on a day the market was already up over 1%, with Nvidia as the clear focal point. Call volumes have been elevated for several weeks; with market makers carrying significant short-gamma exposure – buying as prices rise and selling as they fall, amplifying moves in both directions – the combination of a large post-earnings repricing and upcoming month-end positioning makes the next few sessions a structural watch point for a potential de-hedging unwind. Despite all of this, the CBOE SKEW index, which measures the premium investors pay for out-of-the-money downside protection relative to equivalent upside, sits at 132.31. That is well above the historical norm, even after a 2.35% decline on the day. Tail-risk demand has not gone away.
Strategy insight – The Nvidia IV crush: why a solid beat can still cost you. Options markets priced a 6.5% post-earnings move for Nvidia, with a potential $355 billion market cap swing implied by the options chain. The company beat on revenue, EPS, and Q2 guidance of $91 billion – yet the stock declined after-hours. For holders of long straddles or strangles purchased ahead of the print, this is the IV crush in real time: implied volatility collapses once the event uncertainty is resolved, and that vega loss can fully offset any directional gain from the actual stock move. Pre-earnings premium already embeds the expected magnitude of the move, and the trade only works when the actual outcome exceeds that implied range.
The main risk in pre-earnings long options positions is not being wrong on direction – it is paying more for the implied move than the stock actually delivers.
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.
Strategy insight – KOSPI rally, Samsung strike, and the case for put spreads. The KOSPI’s 8% single-day surge prices in a direct line from Nvidia’s AI chip demand to Samsung and SK Hynix’s high-bandwidth memory output – but a 45,000-worker Samsung labor strike begins on 21 May, introducing a supply-side risk that the session’s euphoria has not priced in. The VVIX, the CBOE’s measure of the volatility of the VIX itself, sits at 96.45, while realised vol remains at 10.8% and options premiums stay broadly affordable. For traders holding AI semiconductor exposure after a day like this, a put spread delivers targeted downside protection at a fraction of outright put cost: buying a put at a strike near current levels while selling a lower put to offset part of the premium. With SKEW at 132, puts are relatively expensive compared to calls – which is precisely why the spread structure matters here, as selling the lower strike reduces the net cost meaningfully.
The maximum loss is the net premium paid, making the insurance cost predictable regardless of how the strike situation develops.
The session’s message is fairly clear: investors bought first and asked questions later, with the Nvidia print serving as the focal point for a day of broad risk-on positioning. The after-hours stock reaction – down despite a beat on every major line – is a reminder that consensus expectations and whisper numbers are two different things, and that options premium reflects the latter. Heading into Thursday, the VIX1D collapse and put/call rotation will set the early tone, while the Samsung strike and any Nvidia post-earnings analyst revisions are the two most concrete catalysts worth monitoring. The regime is still low vol bull, but the term structure disagrees: front-month VIX futures are trading at 19.90 against a spot VIX of 17.44, and SKEW at 132 is not the signature of a market that has fully stopped worrying.
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