Morning Brew July 27 2021
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Markets remain cautious on Ukraine
Worries on Ukraine continue to worry markets, US Indexes closed a little changed yesterday but gave up ground overnight, the US 30 is trading 34500, the US 500 4400 and the US tech100 14280. The GER40 is trading at 15044, key support lies at 14,836. If closing below there is no strong support before 13,390, minor levels would come in at 14,245 and 13,893 acc to our Kim Cramer. The S&P 500 Index closed back below the 200 daily SMA and minor support at 4,446 after being rejected at the resistance level at 4,590, there is not strong support before 3,725.
Gold and Silver were again strong, Gold is just breaking above the resistance at 1876, if we hold above, 1910 is the next significant level. Oil gave up a little ground on profit taking. Bitcoin could recover to 43600 amid discussions if it serves as a safe haven or not.
Althea composed a great collection of the most relevant charts in the bond Markets: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/fixed-income-chart-pack-for-february-09022022
EURUSD remains little changed at 1.1315, GBPUSD at 1.3529 and the USD Index at 96.20.
The US reiterated it`s warnings that a Russian attack on Ukraine may be imminent, and that is was moving it`s embassy away from Kiev. German Chancellor Scholz is visiting Moscow today, trying to prevent an escalation ahead of the rumored key day tomorrow. The rumors of an emergency rate hike by the Fed at their closed meeting were proven wrong yesterday.
Justin Trudeau invokes emergency powers to end the Corona protests by truckers..
Key Data comint up:
Today: 8:00 UK Unemployment , 11:00 EU GDP
16th : China CPI and PPI, UK CPI, US Retail sales, US Industrial Production
17th Turkey Rate decision, US Jobl3ess Data and Phily Fed
18th UK Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence
Earnings are Marriot, Airbnb and Viacom among smaller companies, tomorrow is more important with Shopify, Wix.com, Hilton, Kraft, AMC, Nvidia and Cisco.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.