Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Markets remain cautious on Ukraine
Good Morning,
Worries on Ukraine continue to worry markets, US Indexes closed a little changed yesterday but gave up ground overnight, the US 30 is trading 34500, the US 500 4400 and the US tech100 14280. The GER40 is trading at 15044, key support lies at 14,836. If closing below there is no strong support before 13,390, minor levels would come in at 14,245 and 13,893 acc to our Kim Cramer. The S&P 500 Index closed back below the 200 daily SMA and minor support at 4,446 after being rejected at the resistance level at 4,590, there is not strong support before 3,725.
Gold and Silver were again strong, Gold is just breaking above the resistance at 1876, if we hold above, 1910 is the next significant level. Oil gave up a little ground on profit taking. Bitcoin could recover to 43600 amid discussions if it serves as a safe haven or not.
Althea composed a great collection of the most relevant charts in the bond Markets: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/fixed-income-chart-pack-for-february-09022022
EURUSD remains little changed at 1.1315, GBPUSD at 1.3529 and the USD Index at 96.20.
The US reiterated it`s warnings that a Russian attack on Ukraine may be imminent, and that is was moving it`s embassy away from Kiev. German Chancellor Scholz is visiting Moscow today, trying to prevent an escalation ahead of the rumored key day tomorrow. The rumors of an emergency rate hike by the Fed at their closed meeting were proven wrong yesterday.
Justin Trudeau invokes emergency powers to end the Corona protests by truckers..
Key Data comint up:
Today: 8:00 UK Unemployment , 11:00 EU GDP
16th : China CPI and PPI, UK CPI, US Retail sales, US Industrial Production
17th Turkey Rate decision, US Jobl3ess Data and Phily Fed
18th UK Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence
Earnings are Marriot, Airbnb and Viacom among smaller companies, tomorrow is more important with Shopify, Wix.com, Hilton, Kraft, AMC, Nvidia and Cisco.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.