Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew August 12 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning,

The US CPI failed to provide the clarity  we were hoping for. The number came out exactly as predicted by the Reuters Poll, meaning inflation is high but slightly off the high last month. That means all narratives can play out and we depend on interpretation by the Fed. There is a strong case to be made for tapering, if the Fed wants to continue supporting the economy, there is room in the argument that inflation was indeed transitory and there was no need for action. The expectation is that roadmap will be announced at the Jackson Hole conference end of month, currently Fed speakers seem to be testing the mood with Esther George and Robert Kaplan arguing for tapering in the short term.

Markets seem to be mostly of the opinion that the Fed wants to remain supportive and Equities rise broadly to new highs. The Dow ends up 0.62%, the S&P 500 0.25%, the Nasdaq down 0.16% the Dax closes above 15800.

Rates swing but return to yesterday’s levels, the USD Index falls just below 93, EURUSD gains to 1.1743, GBPUSD 1.370, Bitcoin falls to 45100 Gold and Silver rise off the lows to 1750 and 23.40.

Zurich Insurance first-half business operating profit jumped 60%

Delivery Hero DHER.DE raised its 2021 outlook

Over the next few days I would expect more and more fed speakers to emerge with comments and testing the water how well markets receive plans, for today, we expect EU Industrial Production at 11:00 CET, Initial Jobless claims and the US PPI at 14:30

In addition the US budget and the debt ceiling will be in the spotlights

Trade safely

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

CBT Weekly Repo Rate

Aug

19.00%

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

O/N Lending Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

O/N Borrowing Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

Late Liquidity Window Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

7 Aug, w/e

373k

13 Aug 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Final MM

Jul

0.1%

13 Aug 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Final YY

Jul

1.6%

13 Aug 2021

09:00

Turkey

Current Account Balance

Jun

13 Aug 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI MM

Jul

0.3%

13 Aug 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI YY

Jul

1.4%

13 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

U Mich Sentiment Prelim

Aug

81.2

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ

Q2

0.2%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Annualised

Q2

0.7%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Pvt Consmp Prelim

Q2

-0.1%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Capital Expend.

Q2

1.7%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ External Demand

Q2

-0.1%

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Urban Investment (YTD)YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Industrial Output YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Retail Sales YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

12:00

Euro Zone

Reserve Assets Total

Jul

(refinitv)

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.