Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew 09 August

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Flash-Crash Precious Metals


Good Morning,

A strong Nonfarm payroll on Friday left equities at record levles while yields rose and put pressure on precious metals. Over night gold and Silver dropped further to 1684 and 22.50 (see Ole`s comment below). 10 year yields rose to 1.30, Bitcoin trades at 43500 US Index rises to 92.80EURUSD trades at 1.1760 and GBPUSD at 1.3890

US Equities closed at all-time highs on Friday, but give up a little ground this morning on tapering fears and some nervousness spilling over from the FX Market.

China's factory gate inflation in July rose at a faster clip from the previous month at 9% vs 8.8% expected

Ole Hansen comments on Gold and Silver:

Gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) already under pressure following Friday’s stronger than expected US jobs report, suffered a flash crash during the early parts of the Asian session. Following the weak close on Friday both metals had been left vulnerable into the opening, with the Sunday evening / Monday morning opening often offering a very limited amount of liquidity. Within minutes gold dropped more than 4% while silver slumped 7%, before pairing losses ahead of the European opening. Traders have been rattled by golds strange behavior in recent weeks when falling yields failed to boost the price, while last week’s small turnaround in yields triggered an immediate and strong negative response. This sort of capitulation can often coincide with a significant low in the market but for that to happen economic data is required to turn more gold friendly. With the market focus on jobs over for now, the short-term direction of precious metals could be dictated by U.S.  inflation – the other part of the Fed’s mandate - with July CPI due on Wednesday

Key events will be the CPI Wednesday, earnings remain in focus with Münchner Rück, Softbank, BionTech, Vestas Baidu Inc Walt Disney China Mobile NIO Palantir.

The US Infrastructure bill and any tapering plans or comments around it will be key. The U.S. Senate on Sunday took two more steps toward passing the bill.

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

9 Aug 2021

03:30

China (Mainland)

PPI YY

Jul

8.8%

9 Aug 2021

03:30

China (Mainland)

CPI YY

Jul

0.8%

10 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Current Account NSA JPY

Jun

779.8B

10 Aug 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index MM

Jul

10 Aug 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index YY

Jul

2.8%

10 Aug 2021

08:00

Denmark

CPI YY

Jul

10 Aug 2021

11:00

Germany

ZEW Economic Sentiment

Aug

57.0

10 Aug 2021

11:00

Germany

ZEW Current Conditions

Aug

30.0

10 Aug 2021

14:00

Brazil

IPCA Inflation Index MM

Jul

0.93%

10 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

Total Social Financing

Jul

1,700.00B

10 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

M2 Money Supply YY

Jul

8.7%

10 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

New Yuan Loans

Jul

1,200.0B

11 Aug 2021

08:00

Germany

HICP Final YY

Jul

3.1%

11 Aug 2021

10:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Final MM

Jul

-1.1%

11 Aug 2021

10:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Final YY

Jul

0.9%

11 Aug 2021

14:00

Brazil

Retail Sales YY

Jun

9.00%

11 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

CPI MM, SA

Jul

0.5%

12 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price MM

Jul

0.5%

12 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price YY

Jul

5.0%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Est 3M/3M

Jun

4.8%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate MM

Jun

0.7%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate YY

Jun

15.0%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Manufacturing Output MM

Jun

0.4%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Prelim QQ

Q2

4.8%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Prelim YY

Q2

22.1%

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

CBT Weekly Repo Rate

Aug

19.00%

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

O/N Lending Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

O/N Borrowing Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

Late Liquidity Window Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

7 Aug, w/e

373k

13 Aug 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Final MM

Jul

0.1%

13 Aug 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Final YY

Jul

1.6%

13 Aug 2021

09:00

Turkey

Current Account Balance

Jun

13 Aug 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI MM

Jul

0.3%

13 Aug 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI YY

Jul

1.4%

13 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

U Mich Sentiment Prelim

Aug

81.2

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ

Q2

0.2%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Annualised

Q2

0.7%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Pvt Consmp Prelim

Q2

-0.1%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Capital Expend.

Q2

1.7%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ External Demand

Q2

-0.1%

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Urban Investment (YTD)YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Industrial Output YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Retail Sales YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

12:00

Euro Zone

Reserve Assets Total

Jul

(refinitv)

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