Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: IBIT options are fast becoming a real-time barometer for global investor risk appetite, blending the volatility of crypto with the structure of traditional finance. From directional LEAPS plays to income-generating put strategies, savvy investors now have sophisticated tools to navigate Bitcoin’s evolving role in institutional portfolios.
In today’s complex markets, active investors constantly seek real-time clues to gauge risk appetite. One of the most intriguing tools has emerged in an unlikely place: the crypto options market, specifically BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT). Since its launch in early 2024, IBIT has transformed Bitcoin access for institutions and longer-horizon investors, blending the wild world of crypto with the familiar infrastructure of ETFs.
Bitcoin has matured into a global liquidity and risk sentiment barometer. Historically, crypto assets soared in risk-on periods when investors chased high-growth assets. During risk-off episodes, capital typically fled to safe havens like bonds or gold.
IBIT’s meteoric rise—reaching $63.7 billion in assets under management by May 2025—marks Bitcoin’s growing integration with traditional markets. Institutional allocators now apply structured risk frameworks to crypto, making its market behavior increasingly aligned with equities and credit markets. However, Bitcoin’s unpredictable edge remains: it has shown an ability to decouple, as in March 2023 when it surged during banking sector turmoil.
Options on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) have unlocked powerful tools for institutional traders and longer-term investors. Unlike offshore derivatives, IBIT options provide familiar vehicles with regulated market safeguards. As of May 2025, total open interest (OI) hit a 52-week high of 3 million contracts, dominated by calls (put/call ratio ~0.50).
Important note: the strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.
While short-dated activity shows tactical sentiment, the real investor opportunity lies in long-dated positioning. IBIT’s liquid LEAPS market offers flexible ways to express a view on Bitcoin’s long-term path with tightly defined risks.
bullish
Buy 1 × Jan 15, 2027 $50 call. With IBIT near $57.84, this in-the-money LEAPS call provides nearly two years of “crypto optionality.” The premium is now ~$2,165, controlling 100 shares for about 37% of their cash value. Maximum risk is the premium; upside remains unlimited above a breakeven of $71.65. Theta decay remains slow over the 20-month horizon.
neutral / income
Sell 1 × Jan 16, 2026 $40 cash-secured put. The latest premium stands at $232 per contract. Investors agreeing to buy IBIT at a 30% discount ($40 strike) can earn ~14% yield on cash reserved (approx. $1,690 margin impact). Max risk only occurs if IBIT goes to zero. If IBIT stays above $40, the investor keeps the full premium.
bearish / hedge
Buy 1 × Jan 16, 2026 $55/$40 put spread. Current cost for the spread is ~$530. It delivers a max reward of ~$970 if IBIT falls below $40 by expiry. Breakeven is $49.70. Max loss, in this case the premium paid ($530), occurs when the price is above $55 at expiry. The structure uses the steep IV term structure to lock in protection now. It works well as either a downside hedge for holders or a defined-risk speculative short play.
These approaches give investors the ability to hedge, harvest yield, or speculate on long-term appreciation with known risks and high flexibility.
Despite bullish open interest (OI) positioning, IBIT’s implied volatility (IV) remains relatively subdued. In May, 30-day IV hovered around 44-46%, far below past bull market peaks. The IV curve shows a healthy contango, increasing from ~34% for near-term expiries to ~57% for January 2027.
Positive call skew also persists across maturities, indicating greater demand for upside participation than for downside protection. Skew refers to the difference in implied volatility between out-of-the-money calls and puts; when calls have higher implied volatility, it signals traders are paying more for upside exposure, reflecting bullish expectations. It suggests that even as macro fears persist, traders are preparing for a potential Bitcoin breakout.
IBIT options activity has closely tracked global sentiment. April’s market stress—marked by S&P 500 volatility and a VIX spike over 50—gave way to calmer conditions by early May. The VIX settled back to the low 20s, high-yield spreads tightened, and IBIT options showed measured optimism.
This alignment with equities and credit markets underscores Bitcoin’s increasing integration as a risk barometer. Yet investors should watch closely for any divergence.
The institutionalization of Bitcoin through IBIT makes long-term options positioning an increasingly attractive playbook for investors:
The IBIT options tape is now a sophisticated macro compass. Investors can actively manage crypto risk with multi-year flexibility: from outright directional bets via LEAPS, to income strategies through cash-secured puts, or cost-effective downside hedging with put spreads.
As Bitcoin’s institutional journey unfolds, IBIT options will remain a front-line tool to gauge and express long-horizon views on risk appetite. Whether leaning into the next melt-up or preparing for shocks, IBIT options give investors both time and room to act.
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