Macro Dragon: Snapshot & Post-FOMC Price Action...
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Snapshot & Post-FOMC Price Action...
- Interesting or not?: You know the Dragons skew on examining the day to day sessions, there is a lot of noise & very little signal – unless you’re a market maker or/& day scalper, it’s almost a negative convex exercise.
- We tend to read patterns into things & events that are really just random on the broader meta trends. Its actually a function of our DNA, as well as social upbringing.
- With that in mind, not often you see gold pull back by -3.7% whilst silver outperforms on the downside with only -3.5% - hmmm… Also BTC back at -2.6%, yet like the other two… keeps basing higher… bullish break-outs still higher. As in all things a session or two, do not a trend make nor break.
- DXY 92.9280 big reversal (after initially hitting new lows over the last 2 days) with a +0.67% pop carried firmly across EURUSD 1.1857 -0.78% & USDJPY 106.03 +0.67%.
- Energy meanwhile cool as you like with WTI pretty much flat at 42.49 & Brent 45.00 a touch lower at -0.20%. Copper on the other hand pretty strong session with +1.6% to 298.30.
- Bond yields initially came off, yet are off the lows with 10s at 0.66% & bond Futures at 139-14, +6bp this Asia morning.
- Here is the link to the minutes
- As always for our VIPs feel free to reach out to our Global Sales Trading desk, as well as potentially speak to some of my excellent peers from the SaxoStrats squad. For those interested in our unique VIP offering, please reach our to your friendly relationship partner at Saxo.
- The Dragon will be back wk of Sep 7th, may the trading & investment winds of global macro be in your favor.
Anthems - worth making some time if you have not already:
- Plus watch out for our Currency Options Master Class that will be run on Thu 12:30 SGT (UTC +8), by our APAC head of Global Sales Trading, the always sharp Mahesh Sethuraman – who background is very much SITG (Skin in the game), given his buyside background & pragmatic approach. And even if you don’t trade currencies, there is always something to take away from a good masterclass. In fact he takes optionality so seriously, KVP just found out there is an additional class even earlier on Wed 12:30 SGT (UTC +8).
- There will be a more advanced course later in Sep & depending on traction, we can continue to enhance the content & strategies discussed – please feel free to ping across constructive feedback, what parts were helpful, where could we improve, is there something we should take out, etc.
- Emerging Markets Brief : Pulling the trigger – Dembik checking in on EM including Turkey, plus also weighing in on the inflation debate The road to inflation in post-COVID times
- Sea Ltd doubles revenue as Southeast Asia expansion continues – Garnry weighs in on a name that has been in heavy contention among clients…
- KVP’s default view on potential Divergent Cross-Roads, always worth examining as there could be phenomenal investment opportunities (i.e. Tencent back in 2010, debate raged on whether it was a gaming company & thus dramatically overvalued or a social media platform & hence massively undervalued – well, Tencent +2450% since the lows of 2010. So to give one context, a USD 100,000 position then would be worth about USD 2.5m today. Not 80x in sub 3yrs, but we’d take it).
- Commodity outlook webinar – Replay of the world class works of our commodity Strategist Ole Hansen… and also below, his latest Crude Oil check in…
- Crude oil looks to OPEC+ and EIA for inspiration
- Plus we’ve not check it with our always excellent Eleanor Creagh for a while, here is her latest out of our Aus Hub More pain to come for Aussie banks
To Keep In Mind Today
- CH: Trade Balance
- EZ: GER PPI, ECB Minutes
- US: Philly Fed Mfg. Index, CB Leading Index, Nat Gas Storage
Remember tmr is Flash PMI Friday across the board
Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the way.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.