Market Quick Take – 26 May 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US was holiday-quiet, Europe rallied on lower oil, while Asia was mixed as peace hopes met fresh caution.
• Volatility: Nvidia beats but reaction muted, KOSPI extends rally, oil rebounds, PCE and GDP ahead, downside hedging remains active
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin stabilises, ETF caution persists, Nasdaq crypto options approved, selective bullish positioning, hedged sentiment
• Fixed Income: Yields steady after Monday plunge with focus on crude oil prices
• Currencies: US pulls back on bounce in crude oil prices in sluggish trading
• Commodities: Oil rebound, gold falls as peace remains illusive
• Macro events: US May Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Macro headlines

• Positioned as a “self defense” operation, US forces struck missile launch sites in Southern Iran and boats that the US claimed were laying mines, while still touting that US-Iran peace talks continued to extend a cease-fire for another 60 days. This threw some doubt on the status of the talks after President Trump made comments suggesting a deal is nearing at the weekend.
• Iran is reportedly seeking guarantees from China before proceeding, even as US and Israeli aircraft are said to have struck Iranian vessels near Larak Island and Israel signals it will step up attacks on Hezbollah.
• In Japan, Prime Minister Takaichi plans to fund an extra budget without increasing bond issuance on a calendar-year basis, while a former major trading-house chief warns of a possible shortage of naphtha-derived chemicals by late June.
• Russia is urging the US to evacuate its citizens from Ukraine’s capital Kyiv after attacking the city with a drone and missile barrage in recent days that included hypersonic Oreshnik missiles, claiming it will continue to attack “decision making centers” in the city.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1400 – US May Conference Board Consumer Confidence
1430 – Dallas Fed May Manufacturing Activity
1700 – US Treasury to auction USD 69 billion of 2-year Notes
0130 – Australia Apr. CPI
0200 – New Zealand RBNZ to announce the Official Cash Rate

Earnings events

• Today: Zscaler
• Wednesday: Marvell Technology, Salesforce, Synopsys, Snowflake, Agilent Technologies
• Thursday: Dell Technologies, Autodesk

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day, so Friday’s official close remained the latest full session.
• Europe: European equities rose on Monday, while UK markets were closed for the Spring Bank Holiday. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 2.0% to 6,136.66, the Stoxx 600 gained 1.0% to 631.63, Germany’s DAX rose 2.0% to 25,389.10 and France’s CAC 40 added 1.8% to 8,258.26, as falling oil prices and hopes for a US-Iran deal lifted risk appetite. Banks led sectors, while airlines benefited from lower fuel pressure, with Lufthansa up 3.6% and Air France-KLM up 6.2%. ASML gained 1.5% and Schneider Electric rose 3.1% as AI-related optimism continued. Eurozone inflation data is the next test.
• Asia: Asia was mixed on Tuesday as early optimism over a quick US-Iran deal met the annoying reality of new US strikes and higher oil. MSCI Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.7%, South Korea’s KOSPI jumped almost 3% to a record, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.3%, while Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.2% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3%. Samsung Electronics rose 2.7% after a labour agreement supported chip sentiment, while SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor rose after Huawei outlined a chip roadmap targeting 1.4nm-equivalent performance by 2031, using system-level design and packaging techniques to work around limits on cutting-edge lithography equipment.

Volatility

• Market volatility remains relatively contained, but investors are becoming more sensitive to macro headlines and concentrated positioning in AI-related equities. Nvidia delivered another strong earnings beat and raised guidance, yet the reaction was more muted than in previous quarters, suggesting markets increasingly require “beat-and-raise” results rather than simply strong numbers. Meanwhile, South Korea’s KOSPI rose another 2.9% overnight, extending its recent rally to roughly 8% over the past few sessions, driven by semiconductor optimism and renewed foreign inflows into Asian technology stocks. The move continues to highlight how dependent broader equity sentiment remains on the AI and chip cycle.
• Geopolitics also returned to the volatility discussion. Oil prices rebounded after renewed US military activity around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz partially reversed Monday’s sharp decline in crude. Investors remain focused on whether energy markets stabilise or whether higher oil prices start feeding back into inflation expectations and bond yields again. For the remainder of the week, markets will closely watch US GDP, durable goods orders, jobless claims and especially Core PCE inflation on Thursday, alongside earnings from Marvell Technology, Salesforce and Dell Technologies, all of which could influence the AI and technology narrative further.
• The VIX closed near 16.6 on Friday and VIX futures remain below 21, suggesting markets still expect relatively orderly trading conditions despite elevated headline risk. SPX options currently imply an expected weekly move of roughly 97 points, or 1.30%, into Friday’s expiry.
• 0DTE skew indicator: today’s SPX options chain continues to show a mild downside protection bias. Put options roughly 1% below spot are trading noticeably richer than comparable upside calls, showing investors remain more willing to pay for short-term downside protection than speculative upside exposure, even with equities near record highs.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets stabilised after a volatile weekend, with Bitcoin holding near USD 76,800 and Ethereum around USD 2,100 as broader risk sentiment improved slightly on hopes of easing Middle East tensions. The crypto market remains closely tied to liquidity conditions and macro sentiment rather than purely crypto-native catalysts. Signs of progress toward a potential Iran agreement helped calm fears around oil supply disruptions, supporting broader risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
• Institutional adoption nevertheless remains an important longer-term theme. Nasdaq received conditional SEC approval for cash-settled Bitcoin index options linked to the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index, another sign that traditional financial infrastructure continues moving deeper into crypto markets. At the same time, ETF flows remain mixed. IBIT traded near USD 42.96 while ETHA fell toward USD 15.57, reflecting softer momentum in spot crypto prices and continued caution among investors. Crypto-related equities were also weaker overall, with Coinbase falling more than 4% and MicroStrategy declining roughly 3%, while selected miners such as MARA and CIFR modestly outperformed.
• Options flow data still points to a cautiously bullish tone rather than outright risk-on enthusiasm. Large upside exposure in MicroStrategy and selective Coinbase call buying suggest investors continue positioning for longer-term upside participation, but persistent put demand in IBIT, ETHA and crypto miners shows hedging activity remains active beneath the surface. Among major altcoins, XRP held near USD 1.35 while Solana traded around USD 84.7 and Dogecoin remained under pressure near USD 0.10.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields are set to open lower Tuesday after the US Memorial Day weekend and hopes for a peace deal with Iran. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield is indicating an open near 4.05% after closing Friday at 4.12%, while the benchmark 10-year yield is indicating an open near 4.50%, down five basis points from Friday’s close.
• Japan’s bonds were mixed Tuesday after rallying sharply on Monday on the sharp drop in crude oil prices. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield fell just under a basis point to below 1.41% after the yield peaked last week above 1.45%. Longer dated yields were mostly steady Tuesday, perhaps on the focus on Japan’s Takaichi seeking a supplemental budget, aiming to do so without increasing overall bond issuance. The benchmark 10-year JGB rose two basis points to 2.72% and the 30-year benchmark yield fell back about one basis point to just below 3.95% after a sharp seven basis point drop on Monday.

Commodities

• Oil prices rebounded following Monday’s 7% slump as fresh US military strikes in Iran clouded the outlook for an interim agreement between the US and Iran that could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which around one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows under normal conditions, and which has remained largely closed since early March. While differences between the parties have narrowed, any eventual peace deal would likely lead only to a gradual reopening, meaning the current tight supply outlook could take months to normalize. Reflecting this, the average Brent price for 2027 is currently trading near USD 78.50, compared with around USD 65 before the conflict.
• Gold and silver continue to take their cues from crude oil because of its influence on inflation expectations, interest-rate outlooks, bond yields, and the dollar. After rallying on Monday alongside the drop in oil prices, both metals trade softer today as renewed US strikes near the Strait reduced optimism surrounding peace negotiations. Gold remains trapped within a narrowing range, currently bounded by its 200-day moving average at USD 4,383 and 50-day moving average at USD 4,648. A shift away from oil-driven macro dynamics may be needed to attract renewed investor interest.

Currencies

• The US dollar rebounded slightly from its weakness Monday as crude oil prices bounced after their huge plunge Monday on news of fresh US strikes against Iranian target even as peace talks supposedly continue. After closing Friday near the stick 1.1600 area, EURUSD rose as high as 1.1653 Monday before dropping back toward 1.1630 by early Tuesday hourse in Europe. USDJPY seems difficult to shift notably from the 159.00 area, where it trades early Tuesday as well.
• The Australian dollar continues to trade firmly, with AUDUSD testing the highest levels in a week late Monday above 0.7180 before easing back, and AUDNZD poking toward the decade-plus highs near 1.2250 (the RBNZ to announce the Official Cash Rate early Wednesday, with the market looking for the central bank not seen likely to hike this week, but to hike at its July and/or September meetings, so guidance will be key.) The Aussie is perhaps taking the lead from the Chinese yuan, where CNH posted its strongest close against the US dollar since 2023: USDCNH closing below 6.79 in what seems a green flag for further strengthening.
• The Euro is weak against other European currencies of late, as EURGBP trades hovers just above the range low since the summer of 2025 of 0.8610. Elsewhere, EURCHF yesterday tested the 0.9100 level for the first time since March.

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