Today’s G-10 rundown
USD – the US dollar is rather weak on this spot of weak risk sentiment to start the day – but does that remain the case in a deeper market deleveraging move?
EUR – EURUSD is bid on the day but we have concerns for Europe on multiple fronts as noted above. Still, likely to do better than most other non-USD and non-JPY FX regardless due to liquidity and positioning in any general deleveraging push.
JPY – we like the JPY here for an extension higher – focusing on EURJPY (perhaps mistakenly) but sad that we took profit early on USDJPY shorts, as we believe US could be focal point for next wave of coronavirus concerns.
GBP – the 200-day moving average provided a relief point for sterling selling in both EURGBP and GBPUSD, but far too early to signal the all clear and general market deleveraging and a widespread coronavirus shutdown in the near term are material risks for sterling.
CHF- watching the next round of risk deleveraging, if any, for the latest colour on CHF.
AUD – the Aussie is trying to extend the bounce here as some key industrial commodity prices have stabilized and Chinese equity market posted a new high for the cycle overnight – we lean against the move as long as AUDUSD stays below 0.6700
CAD – watching oil prices over the next couple of days of OPEC meetings and risk sentiment to see if the rally can extend. Not a major surprise that BoC cut 50 and they will likely track whatever Fed does from here, even if with a delay.
NZD – the kiwi putting in a rally, possibly on the narrative of Chinese normalization versus risks of disruption elsewhere. First major resistance area in NZDUSD looks like current levels (from 0.6325) up to 0.6375.
SEK – given EU concerns on the coronavirus reaction, SEK upside will likely prove tough to come by.
NOK – if oil prices continue lower, EURNOK likely to extend higher to new records – NOK traders should watch oil market reaction to OPEC meetings today and tomorrow.
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1300 – UK BoE’s Haldane to Speak
- 1330 – US Jan. Factory Orders
- 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- 1530 – US Weekly Natural Gas Storage
- 1700 – UK BoE’s Carney to Speak
- 1745 – Canada BoC’s Poloz to Speak
- OPEC Meeting
- 2330 – US Fed’s Kaplan (Voter) to Speak
- 0030 – Australia Jan. Retail Sales
- 0100 – US Fed’s Kashkari (Voter) to Speak