FX Breakout Monitor September 19 2019
Head of FX Strategy
Summary: The FX Breakout Monitor suggests the market wasn't entirely shocked by the FOMC meeting yesterday, or at least doesn't know what to do in its wake. The NOK tried to extend higher on today's rate hike, but has stumbled badly from intraday highs.
USDNOK recently tried breaking to a new 19-day low, and did so with more force intraday today, but the break is not holding up so far today even after the Norges Bank surprised consensus with a 25-basis point rate hike today, heading in the opposite direction of virtually every other active central bank. Note the local Fibonacci retracement in play and the need to work much lower to begin reversing this latest dramatic rally wave.
NOKSEK has tried a recent break higher on weak Swedish employment data, the crude oil spike (although this quickly reversed) and now on the Norges Bank rate hike, but the lack of a hold higher and possible sense that this is the last hike for some time after the Norges Bank said that there was little scope for further hikes.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.