The G10 rundown
USD- enough said above – again, the main point here is that the US dollar remains strong despite the significant easing priced. Can or will the Fed get ahead of the curve?
EUR – watch out for European Central Bank president Draghi speaking at the ECB forum in Sintra late today to see if he challenges the notion that the ECB has an exhausted policy mandate and lack of further tools.
JPY – the yen passively tracking long US yields and will likely continue to do so unless the Bank of Japan chooses it’s Thursday meeting to make a new policy point.
GBP – EURGBP poking around at the cycle highs as Tory leadership candidates debated scenarios forcing a hard Brexit while runaway leading candidate Boris Johnson sat out the debate. The next vote takes place tomorrow and over the following days. See our piece from Friday
on longer-term trades for sterling as the shape of Brexit is likely to crystallize from the fog in coming months.
CHF – EURCHF trading at the significant 1.1200 area and risks slipping to 1.10 if the market doesn’t find encouragement for risky assets this week, after the Swiss National Bank did little in rhetorical defense against CHF strengthening at last week’s SNB meeting.
AUD – AUDUSD is running out of range and is close to the lowest non-flash crash lows from early 2016 – awaiting the USD response to the FOMC meeting this week.
CAD – USDCAD has done an about face after a period of CAD overachieving and now trades precisely in the middle of the three-month range ahead of the FOMC this week.
NZD – trading heavily and any risk-negative reaction post FOMC and weak Q1 GDP print from New Zealand could see new lows for the cycle in NZDUSD in a hurry.
SEK – SEK firmed on the CPI beat last week, but needs to work through 10.60 in EURSEK to make an impression. Beginning to question the traditional correlation SEK has with risk appetite – more later.
NOK – the price action has gone dead in EURNOK – awaiting Norges Bank guidance after this week’s expected rate hike (yes, hike). Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
1230 - US Jun. Empire Manufacturing
1400 - US Jun. NAHB Housing Market Index
1700 - ECB’s Draghi to speak in Sintra at ECB Forum
2100 - New Zealand Q2 Consumer Confidence
0130 - Australia Q1 House Price Index
0130 - Australia RBA Minutes