Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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COT: Pre-G20 buying of dollars and bonds
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: US dollars were in high demand ahead of the G20 summit, with the combined dollar long rising to an almost two-year high in the week to November 27.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Forex report for the week ending November 27, click here.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Financials report for the week ending November 27, click here.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Forex report for the week ending November 27, click here.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Financials report for the week ending November 27, click here.
Ahead of the G20 meeting and dovish rate comments from Fed chairman Powell, speculators had further increased bullish dollar bets against nine IMM currency futures. In the week to November 27 they the combined dollar long rose by $1.2 billion to 30.2 billion, a near two-year high.
The dollar buying primarily occurred at the expense of the euro with the net-short rising 7.8k lots to 55.1k lots, the largest bearish position since March 2017. Elsewhere the sterling short was reduced to the lowest since July while seven weeks of Aussie buying reduced the net-short by a quarter to 54k lots.
In fixed income leveraged funds were net-buyers across the yield curve with 5’s being the exception. This in response to falling yields as crude oil plunged and the market reduced expectations for Fed rate hikes next year.
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