Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Alphabet GOOG c closed bang on the support at 122.94. Declining volume and RSI peaks have indicated a looming correction.
A correction that could take GOOG c down to test the Gap created back in May. If GOOG closes the gap i.e., a close below 112.28 further downside should be expected. However, GOOG could quite likely bounce from the upper level of the Gap i.e., from 115.86
Medium-term GOOG is testing support at around 122.94 and seems likely to drop to test the lower rising trendline in the rising channel pattern.
For GOOG to demolish the correction pattern and extend uptrend a close above 129.55 is needed.
Amazon AMZN formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern yesterday which is a strong top and reversal signal.
Market closed just a few cents off the short-term steep rising trendline, and a close below is likely to send AMZN to test support at around 114.22 and the lower medium-term rising trendline.
For AMZN to demolish the top and reversal pattern and extend uptrend a close above 127.40 is needed.
Medium-term AMZN the trend is up unless a close below 101.15. Strong resistance around 130-132
META is close to testing its short-term steep rising trendline. A close below is likely to fuel a sell-off down to medium-term rising trendline.
Strong support at around 231.42. If META drops below that levels the gap is under pressure. A close of the gap i.e., a close below 221.49, would be very bearish for META.
For META to continue its uptrend a close above 276.57 is needed.
Medium-term bullish RSI indicates a likely correction could be just that, a correction. But a correction that could take META to test the strong support at around 237.
A weekly close 230.25 the uptrend has been reversed.
Microsoft MSFT broke yesterday bearish out of its Rising Wedge like pattern. Volume has been declining and RSI showing divergence (RSI peaks have been declining while share price has been rising) i.e., indicating a looming correction.
Support at around 312.30. but if sell-off hits hard MSFT could drop to around 300 which is also the 0.618 retracement of the rising wedge.
For the correction scenario to be demolished and share price to continue higher a close above 33.50 is needed
Weekly chart is interesting. MSFT seems to be forming an Evening Doji Star pattern (circled).
That pattern is a strong top and reversal signal. The week has not yet ended so the pattern can still become busted. But that requires a close Friday higher than 335.
Weekly RSI is still bullish with no divergence suggesting MSFT could trade higher after a likely correction.
Nvidia NVDA. Formed an Evening Star top and reversal pattern right after gapping higher in May. With the lowest close since gapping higher a couple of weeks ago this uptrend is in jeopardy and if NVDA also closes below 366.35 it can fuel a sell-off where sellers will try to close the gap
Will NVDA form an Island reversal perhaps? That scenario is playing out if NVDA gaps lower i.e., the opposite of the gap higher 25th May. Next couple of days is likely to tell.
Either way, if NVDA closes below 366.25 Bears are likely to try closing the gap down to 316.78. .
For NVDA to extend uptrend a close above 405 is needed.
On the weekly chart NVDA seems to be forming an Evening Star top and reversal pattern too. The share price could be in for a larger correction. Possibly a 0.382 retracement at around 303-298.
However, weekly RSI is still bullish with no divergence indicating NVDA could trade higher after a correction. To demolish that picture a close below 262.25 is needed. But, if the market develops and forms a down trend over the summer that could be also demolish that picture. Look out for Technical updates
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.