Multiplecharts1person_1024x768M

Technical Update - ASX200, Hang Seng & China A50

Equities 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  ASX200 in downtrend testing key support.
Hang Seng rejected at 20K. Trend reversal could unfold
China A50 in uptrend but could be caught in side ways range


S&P ASX 200 is currently testing the 0.382 retracement and 200 daily SMA around 7K. The Index is in a confirmed short-term downtrend. RSI showing negative sentiment indicates lower levels are likely. Next strong support at around 6,785 which is also around the 0.618 retracement of the September to December uptrend.

If ASX 200 closes above 7,167 it could indicate a trend reversal that could take the Index back to December highs possibly higher.

ASX200 d 30dec
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

Hang Seng Index has now twice failed to close above 20K not even testing the resistance at 20,185. Divergence on RSI indicates exhaustion of the uptrend, and a correction or trend reversal could be seen.
A close back below the 200 SMA and below the lower rising trend line will indicate a correction is in the making, a close below 18,885 will confirm that scenario. A correction that could take Hang Seng down to the 0.382 retracement at around 18K where the 100 and 55 SMA will provide support.
If Hang Seng can manage to close above 20,185 the uptrend is likely to be extended.

HSI d 30dec

FTSE China A50 future seems to be trading in a wide rising channel but struggling to close above the 200 daily SMA. The China A 50 future could be caught in a range be between 12,700 and 13,415 for some time and need a close below or above for direction. RSI showing positive sentiment indicates that the breakout direction will be to the upside. If RSI closes back above 60 that could be a good indicator for the bullish scenario to play out.
A close below 12,696 is likely to fuel a sell-off down to around 11,831. Support at around 12,500.

A50 d 30dec

 

 

RSI divergence explained: When the price of an instrument is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and a weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend

 

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900 Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.