26goldM

COT report: Nearly half of managed money’s commodity exposure now in gold

Picture of Ole Hansen
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Key points:

  • Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 2 September 2025.
  • In forex, positioning remained heavily skewed, with elevated longs in EUR and JPY being partly offset by sizeable shorts in CAD, AUD and CHF
  • Broad gains in energy and precious metals supported fresh buying and short covering, while agriculture broadly struggled—corn being the notable exception
  • The unexpected prospect of fresh OPEC+ supply wrong-footed Brent buyers and helped trigger a four-dollar correction before today's 'buy the fact' rebound
  • By nominal value, managed money accounts now hold 47% of their total net commodity exposure in gold and 7% in silver. 

Forex

The Dollar Index finished the latest reporting week little changed, as small gains in AUD and CAD were offset by minor losses across the other six IMM futures contracts tracked. Overall, non-commercial traders maintained divergent views across major currency futures, trimming the aggregate short dollar position to USD 5.1 billion, down sharply from June when the gross short extended above USD 20 billion.

Positioning remained heavily skewed, with elevated longs in EUR (USD 17.4 billion), JPY (USD 6.2 billion), and to a lesser extent MXN, partly offset by sizeable shorts in CAD (USD 7.9 billion), AUD (-USD 5.4 billion), and CHF (-USD 4 billion).

8olh_cot1
Non-commercial IMM forex futures positions versus the dollar

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) extended its rally, rising 2.5% in the latest reporting week. Gains in energy and precious metals supported fresh buying and short covering, while agriculture broadly struggled—corn being the notable exception.

Managed money accounts responded by adding length across all energy and metal contracts, while fresh short selling weighed on the agriculture sector, most notably soybeans, sugar, and cotton.

Energy
Ahead of last Wednesday, when Reuters reported that eight OPEC+ producers were discussing another unexpected production increase, speculators had been strong net buyers of Brent crude on Russian supply disruption concerns. The net long jumped 22% to 251k lots, driven by a mix of new longs and short covering. WTI, by contrast, held an overall net short for a fourth week (CME and ICE combined), albeit slightly reduced.

The unexpected prospect of fresh OPEC+ supply wrong-footed Brent buyers and helped trigger a four-dollar correction into the week’s close. Prices have since rebounded from support near USD 65, after OPEC+ confirmed plans to revive another layer of halted production in October, but at a measured pace of just 137,000 barrels per day. The move underscores the group’s effort to regain market share and boost revenues, while the immediate impact remains limited as Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE must fully compensate for overproduction since January 2024.

Metals
Silver’s break above USD 40 for the first time in 14 years, alongside gold’s fresh record high, lifted speculative net longs by 20% and 14% respectively. By nominal value, managed money accounts now hold 47% of their total commodity exposure in gold and 7% in silver. The heavy concentration in gold underscores the strength of a rally that has persisted for months, with only shallow corrections so far—insufficient to trigger broad long liquidation or force traders to await a fresh entry signal.

Copper net longs rose 25% as traders re-engaged, with reduced volatility and renewed price discovery drawing fresh interest after the tariff-driven pump-and-dump episode earlier this year.

Agriculture
Soybeans came under renewed selling and long liquidation amid weak Chinese demand, while corn benefited from short covering on the back of a smaller crop outlook ahead of Friday’s WASDE report. Wheat remains pressured by a robust global production outlook, weighing on nearby contracts relative to deferred and lifting the contango—adding to the positive roll yield of holding short positions.

Sugar shorts stayed elevated, while the cocoa net long dropped to a 2½-year low.

8olh_cot2a
Managed money commodities long, short and net positions, as well as changes in the week to 2 September 2025
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Energy
8olh_cot4
Precious and industrial metals
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Grains and oilseed futures
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Softs and livestock

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

Related articles/content             
5 Sept 2025: Commodities weekly Metals lead crude heavy ags under pressure
4 Sept 2025: OPEC supply expansion and Russias export woes keep crude rangebound
3 Sept 2025: Gold breaks to fresh record as investors seek alternatives in a fractured world
1 Sept 2025: Silver powers past USD 40 to 14-year highs
1 Sept 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 26 August 2025
28 Aug 2025: Steepening US yield curve and what it means for gold
27 Aug 2025: US lumber futures erase tariff gains hint at housing slowdown
26 Aug 2025: Trouble at the Fed supports gold and silver
25 Aug 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 19 August 2025
22 Aug 2025: Commodities weekly ags and energy steady the ship metals lag as Powell looms
21 Aug 2025: Crude oil supported by US inventory decline robust demand and weak positioning
19 Aug 2025: Gold and silver still boxed in waiting for the next catalyst
18 Aug 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 12 August
15 Aug 2025: Commodities weekly metals and softs rise in August as energy and grains slide
14 Aug 2025: Weekly gains across soft commodities on weather and policy-induced risks
13 Aug 2025: WASDE projects record corn crop tighter soybeans wheat under pressure
11 Aug 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - 11 Aug 2025
8 Aug 2025: Tariff shock sends gold futures soaring yet spot market holds the real signal
6 Aug 2025: Crude oil caught between supply surge and geopolitical tensions
5 Aug 2025: Trump tariffs copper chaos and the metals that still matter
4 Aug 2025: COT Report: Speculators cut metals and grain exposure ahead of copper rout
9 July 2025: NY copper surges on 50 Trump tariff threat
8 July 2025: Gold silver platinum take a timeout after strong first half
7 July 2025: Crude prices steady as OPEC fast-tracks output hike
3 July 2025: Commodities Foundations set for the next bull run
30 June 2025: COT Report: Dollar shorts at four-year high, crude slump rattles speculators
27 June 2025: Commodities weekly Broad reversal led by energy copper and platinum stand tall
25 June 2025: Copper extends rally on tariff-related supply squeeze
24 June 2025: Oil tumbles as Hormuz risk premium evaporates following symbolic retaliation and ceasefire deal
23 June 2025: Oil market on edge as Hormuz risk premium builds
20 June 2025: Commodities weekly Strength in energy and grains offsets pause in precious metals
19 June 2025: Wheat rise on short covering and weather woes but fundamentals still lacking
18 June 2025: Commodities strengthen into midyear as demand for hard assets heat up
16 June 2025: COT Report: Speculators sell dollars, buy crude ahead of Middle East escalation
13 June 2025: Commodities weekly Geopolitics lift crude and gold
12 June 2025: Brent crude briefly breaches 70 amid Iran attack threats
10 June 2025: COT Report: Metals, energy demand offset by broad Ag selling
6 June 2025: Commodities weekly Gold stalls spotlight shifts to cheaper silver and platinum
4 June 2025: Crude oil holds firm despite mounting supply glut fears
3 June 2025: Gold and silver break key levels as copper eyes tariff decision
2 June 2025: COT Report: Speculators sold crude ahead of OPEC hike

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