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COT: Crude length added before OPEC+ meeting as gold and copper see profit-taking

Commodities
Picture of Ole Hansen
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Key points:

  • Five weeks of dollar selling cuts long in half
  • Profit taking in gold and copper point to consolidation
  • Crude oil buyers returned ahead of OPEC+ meeting
  • In demand were WTI crude, natural gas, soybeans complex, cotton and cattle
  • Sellers focused on gold, copper, corn and hogs

Forex

The non-commercial dollar long versus eight IMM futures and the dollar index extended a succession of weekly declines to five, and during this time the gross dollar long has been cut by 53% to USD 15 billion during a period where the dollar index drifted lower by just one percent. In the latest reporting week to 28 May, speculators bought 16.1k contracts of euros (USD 2.2 billion equivalent), 24.3k sterling (USD 1.9 billion) as well as CAD, AUD, and NZD while adding 11.7k contracts or USD 0.9 billion equivalent to the yen short.

3olh_cot1
Non-commercial IMM futures positions versus the dollar in week to May 28

COT on Commodities

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report covered a week to 28 May when the Bloomberg Commodities Total Return Index traded near unchanged following a very mixed week that saw strong gains in softs, and to a lesser extent energy and grains, being offset by losses in precious and industrial metals.

Managed money accounts responded to these developments by adding length back into the energy sector while continuing to scale back short positions across the grains sector. Weeks of strong demand across the precious and industrial metal sectors saw a small reversal, primarily due to profit-taking in gold and copper, developments that may signal the beginning of a period of consolidation across two sectors that have witnessed strong gains so far this year.

On an individual level, net buying was concentrated in WTI crude, natural gas, soybeans complex, cotton, and cattle, while sellers focused on gold, copper, corn, and hogs.

3olh_cot2
Managed money long, short and net positions in the week to May 28.
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Energy: Crude oil saw net buying for the first time in four weeks, led by continued demand for WTI and Brent sellers hitting the pause button ahead of OPEC+ meeting
3olh_cot4
Metals: Gold and copper saw net selling, driven by long liquidation but with little appetite for naked short selling. Still muted demand for silver despite recent break above USD 30
3olh_cot5
Grains: Short covering continued but overall a mixed week with demand for the soybean complex being partly offset by fresh short selling of corn. The KCB wheat short was cut by 42%
3olh_cot6
Softs and livestock: the sugar short reached a 4-year high while coffee's +6% rally triggered a tepid demand. The cotton short was almost cut in half.

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

Recent commodity articles:

31 May 2024: Commodity weekly: Strong month despite late decline in crude and fuel
27 May 2024: COT: Gold and crude see increased demand as dollar longs plummet
24 May 2024: Commodity weekly: agriculture surges, metals fall on fading rate cut hopes
23 May 2024: Podcast: 2024 is heavy metals
22 May 2024: Crude oil struggles near two-month low
17 May 2024: Commodity weekly: Metals lead broad gains 
16 May 2024: Gold and silver rally as soft US data fuels market optimism
15 May 2024: Copper soars to record high, platinum breaks out
14 May 2024: COT: Crude long slump; grain purchases surge
8 May 2024: Fund selling exacerbates softening crude outlook
8 May 2024: Grains see bumpy start to 2024 crop year
6 May 2024: COT: Commodities correction spurs muted selling response
3 May 2024: Commodity weekly: Grains boost, correction in softs and energy
2 May 2024: Copper's momentum-fueled rally halts amid weakening fundamentals
29 April 2024: COT: Gold bulls stand firm despite recent correction
26 April 2024: Commodity weekly: Sticky inflation and adverse weather focus
23 April 2024: What drives the gold and silver correction ?
22 April 2024: COT: Declining momentum may signal shift toward consolidation
19 April 2024: Commodity weekly focus on copper, gold, crude and diesel
17 April 2024: Copper rally extends to near two year high
16 April 2024: Crude oil's risk premium ebbs and flows
15 April 2024:COT: Hedge funds propel multiple commodities positions beyond one-year highs
12 April 2024: Gold and silver surge at odds with other market developments
10 April 2024: Record breaking gold highlights silver and platinum's potential
8 April 2024:COT: Speculative interest in metals and energy gain momentum
5 April 2024: Commodity market sees broad gains, enjoying best week in nine months 
4 April 2024: What's next as gold reaches USD 2,300
3 April 2024: Q2 Outlook: Is the correction over?
3 April 2024: Cocoa: A 50% farmgate price boost a step in the right direction
2 Apr 2024:COT: Gold and crude longs maintained amid strong underlying support

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