Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
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Saxo Investor Forecast
Client Report
Saxo
Summary: How Saxo investors view markets, diversification, and key macro themes for the coming half-year
Saxo’s latest investor forecast—based on 1,669 respondents across 10 markets—points to a broadly optimistic six-month outlook, led by confidence in Japan and the global equity market, and moderated by a comparatively cautious stance toward the US. Women and younger investors are consistently more positive than their counterparts.
General optimism on market performance with most trust in Japan and solid sentiment on the global market
In the first line of questions, we asked our clients whether they believe that the five equity markets—their local market, the US market, the European market, the Japanese market, and the global market—would 1) increase, 2) decrease, or show 3) no movement in value over the next half-year.
Across markets, optimism is strongest for Japan, where 63% expect an increase, 22% see no movement, and 15% anticipate a decline. Confidence is also robust for the global market (57% / 28% / 15%). The European outlook is positive though more measured (51% / 33% / 16%), while local markets are slightly less optimistic (48% / 35% / 17%). By contrast, the US carries the lowest share expecting gains (40%) and the highest share expecting a decline (34%).
Together, these results point to a measured but clearly positive global stance—anchored by strong trust in Japan and the global market and tempered by caution toward the US.
Gender and age differences
Women are consistently more upbeat than men across the headline markets. For the US, 45% of women vs 40% of men expect an increase; for the global market it is 62% vs 57%; and for local markets 57% vs 48%. The pattern holds for Europe (54% women vs 51% men) and Japan (65% vs 63%).
Optimism also skews younger. For the global market, 70% of investors aged 18–35 expect an increase compared with 59% among 36–60 and 52% among 61+. For Europe, the gradient is similar (58% / 50% / 51%), while US expectations remain lower across all ages (41% / 40% / 39% report an increase).
In sum, women and younger investors amplify the overall tilt toward optimism—most clearly for Japan, Europe, and the global market—while the US remains the relative outlier across groups.
Most investors plan to keep their diversification unchanged
We’ve asked our client base whether they are most likely to invest in the same, new, or fewer regions, sectors, or asset classes than today.
A clear majority intends to stay the course: 63% plan to invest in the same areas, 27% to add new areas, and 10% to invest in fewer. The distribution is notably stable across the sample, underlining continuity as the prevailing stance.
Gender and age differences
By age, the inclination to expand is highest among younger respondents and steps down with each cohort: 31% (18–35) vs 28% (36–60) vs 23% (61+) select new, while choosing fewer rises modestly with age (6% → 10% → 13%). The “same” choice stays close to 63% across the board.
Taken together, diversification plans point to stability with a controlled appetite for expansion—strongest among younger investors—and minimal intent to de-risk.
Overvaluation dominates as the strongest macro theme driving potential strategy changes
As the final part of this investor forecast, we asked our clients whether they were considering altering their investment strategy based on:
- Trump’s policy impacts
- European defence needs
- AI-driven opportunities
- AI-related concerns
- Growth optimism
- Reconsidering if the market is overvalued
Among the six themes, reconsidering if the market is overvalued is the clearest signal: 69% say it may influence their strategy. Trump’s policy impacts follow at 57%, while AI-driven opportunities (56%), AI-related concerns (53%), and growth optimism (54%) form a mid-50s cluster. European defence needs sit at 48%, the low end of the list yet still close to a split view.
Gender and age differences
Across the macro questions, women show slightly higher openness than men to adjust strategy. The difference is most evident for technology-related themes—AI-driven opportunities (63% women vs 55% men “yes”) and AI-related concerns (61% vs 53%)—and is also visible, though smaller, for growth optimism (56% vs 53%) and Trump’s policy impacts (60% vs 57%).
Age adds further segmentation. European defence needs show the steepest gradient (40% “yes” among 18–35, 46% among 36–60, 55% among 61+), while AI-related concerns run in the opposite direction (58% / 56% / 48%). Sensitivity to overvaluation is elevated across cohorts (63% / 70% / 69%), reinforcing it as the dominant global driver.
Overall, valuation concerns cut across demographics most consistently, while policy and technology drivers vary by gender and age—women and younger investors generally reporting greater readiness to adjust.
About the survey
The survey was undertaken from 6 February to 1 March 2026. As such, most replies were collected prior to the US and Israel attacks on Iran on 28 February 2026 and thus do not include any considerations about the added uncertainty caused by this conflict, which in many instances may have altered sentiment. The survey asked investors to look at their perception of the financial markets in the six months from 1 April to 30 September. The survey was answered by 1,669 clients.
See full list of replies below:
How do you think the following equity markets will perform in the coming half-year?
Local market
| Segment | Increase | No movement | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 48.3% | 34.8% | 16.9% |
| Male | 47.6% | 35.1% | 17.4% |
| Female | 57.4% | 29.7% | 12.9% |
| Age 18–35 | 55.6% | 30.6% | 13.9% |
| Age 36–60 | 48.6% | 33.9% | 17.6% |
| Age 61+ | 46.2% | 37.2% | 16.6% |
US market
| Segment | Increase | No movement | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 40.1% | 25.9% | 34.0% |
| Male | 39.7% | 26.1% | 34.2% |
| Female | 44.8% | 22.4% | 32.9% |
| Age 18–35 | 41.1% | 26.4% | 32.6% |
| Age 36–60 | 40.4% | 24.7% | 34.9% |
| Age 61+ | 39.4% | 27.8% | 32.8% |
EU market
| Segment | Increase | No movement | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 51.0% | 32.9% | 16.1% |
| Male | 50.9% | 32.5% | 16.6% |
| Female | 53.8% | 36.1% | 10.1% |
| Age 18–35 | 58.3% | 26.7% | 15.0% |
| Age 36–60 | 50.1% | 32.5% | 17.4% |
| Age 61+ | 50.8% | 35.1% | 14.1% |
JP market
| Segment | Increase | No movement | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 62.7% | 21.9% | 15.4% |
| Male | 62.9% | 21.5% | 15.6% |
| Female | 65.0% | 22.0% | 13.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 63.1% | 18.4% | 18.4% |
| Age 36–60 | 65.1% | 19.0% | 15.9% |
| Age 61+ | 58.1% | 28.0% | 13.9% |
Global market
| Segment | Increase | No movement | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 57.3% | 28.2% | 14.5% |
| Male | 56.9% | 28.4% | 14.8% |
| Female | 61.5% | 25.4% | 13.1% |
| Age 18–35 | 69.6% | 16.8% | 13.6% |
| Age 36–60 | 58.5% | 24.7% | 16.7% |
| Age 61+ | 51.7% | 37.6% | 10.7% |
Which of the following statements do you think is most realistic for your investment strategy in the coming half-year?
| Segment | Invest in the same regions, sectors, or asset classes as today | Invest in new regions, sectors, or asset classes, you aren't invested in today | Invest in fewer regions, sectors, or asset classes than today |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 62.8% | 26.9% | 10.3% |
| Male | 55.6% | 34.0% | 10.5% |
| Female | 55.6% | 34.0% | 10.5% |
| Age 18–35 | 62.9% | 30.8% | 6.3% |
| Age 36–60 | 62.2% | 28.3% | 9.5% |
| Age 61+ | 63.9% | 23.4% | 12.8% |
Are you planning to alter your investment strategy based on the following themes or events?
Trump's policy impacts
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| Male | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| Female | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| Age 18–35 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Age 36–60 | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Age 61+ | 57.8% | 42.2% |
European defence needs
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Male | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Female | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| Age 36–60 | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Age 61+ | 55.1% | 44.9% |
AI-driven opportunities
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| Male | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| Female | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| Age 18–35 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| Age 36–60 | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| Age 61+ | 52.6% | 47.4% |
AI-related concerns
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Male | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| Female | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| Age 36–60 | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| Age 61+ | 47.6% | 52.4% |
Growth optimism
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| Male | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| Female | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| Age 18–35 | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| Age 36–60 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| Age 61+ | 51.8% | 48.2% |
Reconsidering if the market is overvalued
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| Male | 72.4% | 27.6% |
| Female | 72.4% | 27.6% |
| Age 18–35 | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| Age 36–60 | 70.5% | 29.6% |
| Age 61+ | 69.1% | 30.9% |
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