Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
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Saxo Investor Forecast - Poland
Client Report
Saxo
Summary: How Polish investors view markets, diversification, and key macro themes for the coming half-year
Polish investors enter the next six months with constructive views on the Polish market and Japan, a more neutral stance on Europe, and muted optimism toward the US. Views on the global market remain positive but slightly softer than the global average. The structure below mirrors the approved Swiss template so the article can stand independently while fitting seamlessly into the full international series.
General optimism on market performance, with Polish and Japanese markets leading Poland’s confidence
In the first line of questions, we asked our clients whether they believe that the five equity markets—the Polish market, the US market, the European market, the Japanese market, and the global market—would 1) increase, 2) decrease, or show 3) no movement in value over the next half-year.
Increase in Polish market confidence among Polish investors is notably stronger than the global average (54% vs 48%). Japan follows closely, with a solid majority expecting gains, though just below global levels. The global equity market is also viewed positively, with a narrow majority expecting increases, but again just behind the global benchmark.
By comparison, expectations for the US are more restrained, with a smaller share than globally foreseeing an increase and a relatively larger share expecting declines. Europe shows a neutral stance: Polish investors are in line with the global increase share, but show a higher preference for ‘no movement.’
Taken together, Poland broadly mirrors the global ranking of optimism—Japan and the global market near the top—but with a stronger-than-average local Polish market bias and a more cautious stance on Europe and the US.
Gender and age differences
On the Polish market, increase expectations are similar across genders, though women show a slightly higher tendency to choose “no movement” and men are marginally more likely to select “decrease.” Across age groups, younger investors show the strongest optimism on the Polish market, while confidence in Japan is elevated across all cohorts and particularly pronounced among the youngest respondents.
Overall, demographic patterns reinforce Poland’s local market strength and steady interest in Japan, while attitudes toward Europe and the US remain measured.
Most Polish investors expect to keep diversification unchanged, while a larger minority consider reducing exposure
We’ve asked our client base whether they are most likely to invest in the same, new, or fewer regions, sectors, or asset classes than today.
Diversification intentions in Poland align closely with the global pattern, with the majority expecting no change to their allocations. A slightly smaller share than globally intends to invest in new areas, while a noticeably larger share than the global average expects to invest in fewer areas. This points to a lean toward consolidation among a meaningful minority, even as most remain steady in their approach.
Gender and age differences
Women are more likely than men to select both new and fewer, while men follow the overall national profile more closely. Across ages, the distribution is generally consistent, with the share choosing fewer rising gradually among older investors and younger respondents showing the strongest appetite for new opportunities.
Taken together, Poland’s diversification stance is broadly steady but marked by a slightly more defensive tilt than the global picture.
Macro themes: AI opportunity and market valuation stand out; growth optimism trails global
As the final part of this investor forecast, we asked our clients whether they were considering altering their investment strategy based on:
- Trump’s policy impacts
- European defence needs
- AI-driven opportunities
- AI-related concerns
- Growth optimism
- Reconsidering if the market is overvalued
Among macro themes, AI-driven opportunities stand out most strongly in Poland, with the share responding “yes” exceeding the global average. Market overvaluation is also a prominent consideration for Polish respondents and sits close to the global level. AI-related concerns match the global pattern, while European defence needs and Trump’s policy impacts sit near global benchmarks.
Growth optimism, however, is well below global levels, indicating a relatively cautious outlook despite the strong interest in technological opportunities and valuation signals.
Altogether, Poland shows a profile defined by interest in technology-driven themes and careful attention to valuation, while maintaining a more subdued tone on growth.
Geopolitics dominates expectations for market drivers in the coming quarter
We asked Polish respondents which single factor they believe will most influence global financial markets in the coming quarter.
Geopolitical developments clearly dominate the Polish outlook, with about half of respondents selecting it as the most influential factor. Technological developments come next, followed by corporate earnings. Macroeconomic data and central bank policies register lower, but stable, shares. In short, Poland’s perspective is geopolitics-led, supported by strong attention to technology and a secondary focus on earnings.
Gender and age differences
Men are more likely than women to emphasise geopolitical drivers, while women distribute their views more broadly across technology and macroeconomic factors. Older investors (61+) express the strongest geopolitical focus, whereas younger investors show a more balanced spread across technology, macro, and earnings.
About the survey
The survey was undertaken from 6 February to 1 March 2026. As such, most replies were collected prior to the US and Israel attacks on Iran on 28 February 2026 and thus do not include any considerations about the added uncertainty caused by this conflict, which in many instances may have altered sentiment. The survey asked investors to look at their perception of the financial markets in the six months from 1 April to 30 September. The survey was answered by 203 clients in Poland.
See the full list of replies below
How do you think the following equity markets will perform in the coming half-year?
Polish market
| Segment | Increase | No movement | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 53.7% | 27.4% | 19.0% |
| Male | 53.1% | 26.6% | 20.3% |
| Female | 54.5% | 45.5% | 0.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 65.0% | 20.0% | 15.0% |
| Age 36–60 | 52.8% | 27.1% | 20.1% |
| Age 61+ | 50.0% | 34.6% | 15.4% |
US market
| Segment | Increase | No movement | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 34.9% | 21.4% | 43.8% |
| Male | 36.0% | 21.9% | 42.1% |
| Female | 25.0% | 16.7% | 58.3% |
| Age 18–35 | 34.8% | 34.8% | 30.4% |
| Age 36–60 | 34.5% | 18.3% | 47.2% |
| Age 61+ | 37.0% | 25.9% | 37.0% |
European market
| Segment | Increase | No movement | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 35.1% | 40.4% | 24.5% |
| Male | 33.9% | 41.4% | 24.7% |
| Female | 50.0% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Age 18–35 | 38.1% | 33.3% | 28.6% |
| Age 36–60 | 35.0% | 38.6% | 26.4% |
| Age 61+ | 33.3% | 55.6% | 11.1% |
Japanese market
| Segment | Increase | No movement | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 55.6% | 26.3% | 18.1% |
| Male | 58.1% | 24.3% | 17.6% |
| Female | 30.0% | 40.0% | 30.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 66.7% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Age 36–60 | 55.7% | 23.8% | 20.5% |
| Age 61+ | 47.8% | 43.5% | 8.7% |
Global market
| Segment | Increase | No movement | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 51.9% | 21.6% | 26.5% |
| Male | 52.7% | 21.0% | 26.3% |
| Female | 50.0% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Age 18–35 | 68.2% | 13.6% | 18.2% |
| Age 36–60 | 50.0% | 19.7% | 30.3% |
| Age 61+ | 48.1% | 37.0% | 14.8% |
Which of the following statements do you think is most realistic for your investment strategy in the coming half-year?
Diversification
| Segment | Same | New | Fewer |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 56.7% | 25.1% | 18.2% |
| Male | 58.3% | 23.5% | 18.2% |
| Female | 30.8% | 53.8% | 15.4% |
| Age 18–35 | 50.0% | 37.5% | 12.5% |
| Age 36–60 | 57.3% | 25.3% | 17.3% |
| Age 61+ | 58.6% | 13.8% | 27.6% |
Are you planning to alter your investment strategy based on the following themes or events?
Trump’s policy impacts
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Male | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| Female | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| Age 18–35 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Age 36–60 | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Age 61+ | 66.7% | 33.3% |
European defence needs
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| Male | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Female | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Age 18–35 | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Age 36–60 | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Age 61+ | 65.4% | 34.6% |
AI-driven opportunities
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| Male | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| Female | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Age 18–35 | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| Age 36–60 | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Age 61+ | 76.9% | 23.1% |
AI-related concerns
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Male | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| Female | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Age 18–35 | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| Age 36–60 | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Age 61+ | 47.8% | 52.2% |
Growth optimism
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Male | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Female | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Age 36–60 | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| Age 61+ | 39.1% | 60.9% |
Reconsidering if markets are overvalued
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| Male | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| Female | 83.3% | 16.7% |
| Age 18–35 | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| Age 36–60 | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| Age 61+ | 57.7% | 42.3% |
Which factor do you believe will have the strongest influence on global financial markets in the coming quarter?
| Segment | Geopolitical developments | Technological developments | Corporate earnings | Macroeconomic data | Central bank policies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 49.3% | 20.2% | 13.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| Male | 50.8% | 19.3% | 13.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% |
| Female | 30.8% | 30.8% | 7.7% | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Prefer not to say | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 45.8% | 25.0% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Age 36–60 | 47.3% | 19.3% | 16.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% |
| Age 61+ | 62.1% | 20.7% | 6.9% | 0.0% | 10.3% |
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