Saxo Investor Forecast - country comparisons

Saxo’s multi-market investor survey reveals not only how individual countries view the coming half year, but also how these views diverge across geographies, demographics, and thematic priorities. While global investors collectively display a constructive stance—anchored by confidence in Japan and the global equity market—the country-to-country differences show striking variations in optimism, diversification behaviour, macro sensitivities, and the role of gender and age. Taken together, they paint a layered picture of how culture, experience, and market structure influence investor expectations.

1. Market optimism: shared confidence, different focal points

Across all markets, Japan and the global equity market consistently attract the highest confidence. But below this shared pattern lie notable differences.

European markets as a dividing line

Countries such as Denmark and the UK show a clearly positive bias toward Europe, with Denmark recording one of the highest European “increase” shares across the dataset. France also leans positive on Europe, though closer to the global average. The Netherlands, by contrast, sits nearer to neutral on Europe, while Italy is more restrained, reinforcing a gradient where northern European markets tend to express stronger continental confidence than southern ones.

Local market sentiment varies sharply

Some countries show strong home-market conviction:

• Switzerland and the UK exhibit robust confidence in their domestic indices.
• Poland stands out with a firm positive bias toward its local market, exceeding the global “increase” share.
• Italy and France take a more neutral stance toward their domestic markets, with higher “no movement” shares than global averages.
• Denmark sits close to the global midpoint, neither distinctly bullish nor particularly cautious on the C25.

The US market reveals the widest divergence

While the US is the relative laggard globally, national readings diverge markedly:

• Japan, Singapore, and the UK show strong optimism toward the US market.
• France, Italy, Denmark, and the Netherlands are notably more cautious.
• Poland is among the more sceptical markets on the US, with a comparatively high share of respondents expecting declines.

This divergence underscores how exposure, political sentiment, and media narratives shape national investment psychology.

2. Diversification: from continuity to expansion

The global baseline shows a stability-first approach, with 63% intending to keep diversification unchanged. Yet countries differ significantly in how willing they are to reshape portfolios.

Most expansionary: the UK and Singapore

Both markets show a strong inclination to add new regions, sectors, or asset classes, well above the global average. This expansionary profile reflects both a higher appetite for opportunity and a lower tendency to stand still.

Most continuity-driven: Switzerland and the Netherlands

Switzerland exhibits one of the highest “same” shares, marking a clear preference for maintaining existing allocations. The Netherlands follows even more firmly, with 80% selecting “same”—the highest of all markets. These results align with long-standing conservative investment cultures and high trust in established strategies.

More defensive tones: Poland and France

Both markets show elevated “fewer” selections, signalling a meaningful minority considering reductions. Poland stands out for a more defensive tilt, while France is particularly interesting for showing both higher-than-average “new” and “fewer” shares—suggesting a market actively repositioning in both directions.

Balanced: Denmark, Italy, and Japan

These countries sit closest to the global pattern: a majority choosing “same,” a healthy minority selecting “new,” and relatively low appetite for derisking.

3. Macro themes: national priorities diverge sharply

Although market overvaluation is the strongest global driver overall, each country displays its own distinctive macro fingerprint.

Most valuation-sensitive: France, the UK, and MENA

France reports one of the highest overvaluation readings in the entire dataset, clearly exceeding the global figure. The UK also ranks among the most valuation-sensitive markets, while MENA mirrors this elevated concern and combines it with strong interest in AI-related themes. Japan sits above the global average on valuation sensitivity, though slightly below the most extreme markets.

Technology divides markets more than any other theme

Japan, Singapore, and the UK record high levels of both AI-driven opportunity and AI-related concern, reflecting their market structures and technology exposure.

By contrast:

• The Netherlands displays muted AI sensitivity.
• Switzerland also sits below global averages on technology-related themes, emphasising a more traditional risk lens.

Defence and geopolitics: distinct geographical clusters

• The UK displays elevated attention to European defence needs.
• Poland, given its geopolitical proximity, shows strong geopolitical awareness and heightened sensitivity to defence-related themes.
• France also registers above-global interest in defence and policy considerations.
• MENA markets hold defence and policy close to global norms while prioritising valuation and AI more strongly.

Growth optimism as a differentiator

Denmark is the clear outlier, with growth optimism emerging as the strongest macro driver—well above the global reading. Singapore follows with similarly high growth optimism, while Poland registers one of the lowest, contributing to a more cautious overall tone.

4. Gender differences: consistent patterns with local nuances

Across markets, gender splits follow several consistent patterns, though the magnitude and direction vary by country.

Women are generally more optimistic—globally and in several markets

At the global level, women expect increases more often than men across major equity markets. This pattern holds in several countries, including Denmark, the UK, and Japan, though in other markets women tend to express greater neutrality rather than outright optimism.

Women are more sensitive to technology risks and policy issues

AI-related concerns are consistently higher among women across many markets. European defence needs and policy impacts also tend to resonate more strongly with women in France, the UK, Singapore, and Switzerland.

Men lean more toward continuity

Men are more likely to select “same” in diversification decisions, while women display relatively higher shares in both “new” and “fewer,” indicating a more active rebalancing tendency.

Notable country-specific outliers

• In Italy, female diversification preferences cluster heavily in the “other” category.
• In Poland, women show markedly higher sensitivity to macroeconomic and technological themes than men.
• In Japan, women display unusually high interest in metals as a prospective new trading product.

5. Age differences: gradients consistent, but magnitudes vary

Age-driven behaviour aligns across markets, with younger and older investors displaying clear, recurring patterns.

Younger investors are more expansion-oriented

They are consistently more likely to add new regions, sectors, or asset classes and show the strongest interest in AI opportunities, cryptocurrencies, and newer asset classes.

Older investors show stronger valuation and defence awareness

Across countries, the share citing overvaluation or defence needs rises with age. Older investors also show a stronger preference for maintaining existing allocations.

Middle cohorts form the steady centre

The 36–60 age group tends to mirror overall national profiles more closely than either younger or older cohorts.

Country-specific age highlights

• In Japan, younger investors show strong interest in forex and options, while older cohorts lean toward European equities.
• In Switzerland, the sharpest age divide appears in the use of influencer-led versus traditional financial information sources.
• In Poland, older investors exhibit the highest geopolitical focus.

Conclusion: a global mosaic shaped by culture, opportunity, and risk perception

While global sentiment leans constructive, the differences across markets reveal distinct investment cultures:

• The UK, Switzerland, and Singapore project confident and structured approaches to markets and strategy.
• France, Italy, and the Netherlands show greater neutrality or caution in selected areas.
• Poland and MENA demonstrate strong thematic convictions—geopolitics for Poland, valuation and AI for MENA.
• Japan stands out for its high conviction in both AI opportunity and AI-related risk.

Across demographics, women and younger investors play an important role in shaping optimism and openness to new opportunities, while men and older investors anchor stability and continuity. Together, these perspectives form a rich portrait of how investors around the world approach the coming half year—united by shared opportunities, but coloured by local realities, demographic profiles, and evolving market narratives.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.