Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Saxo Group
Retirement changes how you think about money. At this stage of your life, income comes from the assets you’ve spent years building, and each decision about withdrawals or risk carries lasting consequences. The challenge is to make savings work for you without letting volatility or inflation diminish their value.
If you want to keep investing during retirement, you need a well-structured plan. Part of your capital hopefully will continue to grow to preserve your purchasing power, while another part ideally provides dependable income for your everyday needs.
After retirement, your focus naturally moves from earning to managing what you already have. The goal is no longer to build wealth aggressively but to make it last while keeping your lifestyle consistent. That means markets still influence your future, but stability now matters more than short-term performance.
The main challenge is to find the right balance between holding everything in cash, which exposes you to inflation, and taking too much market risk, which can drain your capital during market downturns. Sustainable retirement investing keeps part of your money working through income-generating and growth assets while maintaining reserves for flexibility and protection.
During these years, it helps to prioritise your portfolio’s role as a sustainable income source, while avoiding speculative bets.
Once regular income stops, your savings have to serve as both your paycheck and your safety net. That’s why your aim is to maintain comfort and predictability without putting your future at risk.
The following steps can help you build that foundation:
Identify which costs must always be covered (housing, food and healthcare) and which can be adjusted, like travel or leisure. This distinction guides how much steady income you need and how much flexibility your portfolio can afford.
Include pensions, annuities, dividends, and any part-time earnings. Knowing when each of them begins and how it’s taxed can help you plan your withdrawals in a way that supports your cash flow and minimises waste.
Assess how much market movement you can tolerate without losing your sleep. Your risk tolerance determines how much of your portfolio stays in equities versus bonds or cash.
Consider setting aside around one to two years of essential spending in accessible accounts or short-term bonds, adjusting for guaranteed income, spending flexibility and overall portfolio size. This prevents you from selling growth assets during market downturns.
If you have cash from lump-sum pensions or asset sales, invest it over several months (a pound-cost-averaging approach) instead of all at once. Phasing reduces exposure to poor market timing and smooths entry into long-term holdings.
Retirement investing works best when every penny you hold has a purpose.
Once you retire, the aim is to keep your income steady, preserve value, and stay protected from inflation.
A balanced portfolio for retirement can combine the following instruments:
Companies with a history of consistent dividends can help your portfolio produce a stream of income while still participating in long-term growth, though dividends can be cut and sector tilts add risk. Equity income funds that focus on strong balance sheets and dependable payout ratios tend to suit retirees better than aggressive growth portfolios.
Instead of relying on a single bond fund, combine short- and medium-term bonds with a smaller portion in longer maturities. This approach locks in different yields and can potentially help you smooth your income as interest rates change. Bonds can still fluctuate, but high-quality bonds are commonly used to help support more predictable withdrawals, subject to market and credit risks.
To keep pace with rising prices, allocate part of your fixed-income holdings to instruments that adjust with inflation or interest-rate movements. These assets can help reduce the risk of losing purchasing power over decades of withdrawals, though values and payouts can still vary.
Retirees need liquidity for emergencies and upcoming spending. High-yield savings accounts, notice deposits, or short-term certificates can cover one to two years of core expenses while protecting your invested capital from forced sales during downturns.
Exposure to infrastructure debt, conservative REITs, or listed utilities can add another layer of income that behaves differently from traditional bonds or equities. These assets often rely on contractual revenues rather than market speculation, which can add diversification and potentially steadier cash flows. However, they remain sensitive to interest rates, regulation and tenant or project risks.
Once you’ve chosen the right mix of assets, the next step is deciding how to use them to provide a stable income through retirement. The following three strategies can help you maintain consistency and flexibility at the same time:
This strategy aims to secure essential living expenses with guaranteed sources like pensions, annuities or government benefits, noting that features and indexation vary by country and product. The rest of your assets remain invested for growth, creating a clear divide between them.
Your assets are divided into short-, medium-, and long-term ‘buckets.’ Short-term funds cover around one to three years of spending through cash or short-term bonds. Medium-term assets, like balanced funds, provide stability for the next five to ten years. Long-term holdings, primarily equities, aim to preserve purchasing power over decades.
Instead of relying solely on income-producing investments, this method treats your portfolio as a unified whole. You withdraw a small, consistent percentage each year—typically adjusted for inflation—while rebalancing periodically to keep your mix intact. It provides flexibility across market cycles and avoids overconcentration in high-yield assets, but still requires a cash or short-bond buffer to limit selling after market falls.
Even with the right mix of assets and strategies, taxes can quietly erode your income over time. Managing when and where withdrawals come from helps your savings last longer and keeps your annual tax bill predictable.
The following principles can help you keep more of what you earn:
The order in which you draw money from taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free accounts affects how long your savings can support you. The optimal order varies by income level, country and personal circumstances; in some cases starting with taxable accounts helps, in others a blend is more efficient.
Many retirement systems impose mandatory withdrawals from certain accounts once you reach a specified age, but ages and rules vary by country. These withdrawals can push you into higher tax brackets if they are not anticipated early. Start planning in your 60s or shortly after retirement to distribute taxable income evenly across the years, avoiding significant one-off hits later.
Holding growth-oriented investments in tax-advantaged accounts and income-producing ones in taxable accounts can improve efficiency in some systems, but optimal placement depends on local tax rates, allowances and product rules. This placement helps you defer taxes on capital gains while keeping immediate income within thresholds that don’t trigger higher tax rates.
Changes in spending, investment performance, or tax rules can change your exposure without you realising it. Revisiting your withdrawal plan annually allows you to adjust amounts or sources before they become costly.
Even after years of saving, managing your wealth in retirement requires ongoing attention because minor missteps can shorten your portfolio’s life or disrupt your income plan.
Here are the mistakes that matter most at this stage:
Selling assets during short-term downturns locks in losses that your portfolio might never recover from. Keep a portion of your cash and bonds ready for withdrawals so you can leave growth investments untouched until markets are stable.
Retirement can span decades. A portfolio that made sense at age 65 might not fit your needs at 75. Revisit your mix every couple of years to ensure your balance between growth, income, and liquidity still matches your lifestyle and health outlook.
Without a clear order for withdrawals, you risk paying unnecessary taxes or reducing your flexibility later. Review which accounts fund your income each year and coordinate them with your tax plan.
Early retirement may seem comfortable, but moderate inflation can erode your spending power over time. Adjust your budget from time to time and maintain some exposure to growth assets that help offset rising costs.
In retirement, your money must prove its purpose. Decades of saving naturally lead to one question: Can your assets sustain your choices without limiting them?
The answer depends on keeping your plan steady when markets fluctuate. Stability—and not speculation—can protect your income at this stage. That means that when your portfolio is structured to deliver reliable results, it can support the life you’ve built rather than putting it at risk.