Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Saxo Group
Most people spend years counting down to a distant retirement age. Work pays the bills but often leaves little room for anything else. The idea of ending full time employment early feels impossible when every expense, deadline, and responsibility seems to pull the finish line further away. That tension can grow further as costs rise, and time feels scarce. Long commutes, tight budgets, and the sense of working endlessly to maintain the same routine can also create frustration.
The thought of early retirement might start as a daydream, but for some it slowly can become a question worth asking. Early retirement means freedom of choice: deciding how to spend your time, where to live, and how to work, if at all. The good news is that, with the proper structure and patience, it can turn from wishful thinking to a realistic goal.
Every early retirement plan starts with a number that defines what financial independence means for you. That number is based on what’s known as a sustainable withdrawal rate, which is the percentage of your savings you can draw each year without running out of funds too soon.
The rule of thumb is simple:
Target savings = annual expenses ÷ withdrawal rate
If your planned spending is EUR 40,000 a year and you expect to withdraw 4%, the calculation is:
EUR 40,000 ÷ 0.04 = EUR 1,000,000
At a more cautious 3% rate, the maths becomes:
EUR 40,000 ÷ 0.03 = EUR 1,333,333
That’s why many early retirement plans use a rule of thumb of roughly 25 to 33 times your annual expenses, subject to asset mix, fees, taxes and how long the money must last.
These numbers aren’t guarantees, but they give you a direction to work toward and show how small changes in spending, saving, or returns can shift your timeline. It’s also worth remembering that early retirees face longevity and sequence-of-returns risk: if markets fall early in retirement, drawing from your portfolio while it’s down can permanently reduce what you have later, and your money may need to last for several decades.
Saving and investing work best when they share the same goal: replacing dependence on a paycheck with steady, self-funded income. The first step is deciding how much of your earnings can be directed toward that goal and where to keep it. Savings cover short-term needs and provide a buffer; investments target long-term growth. Treating them as parts of one plan can keep your progress steady.
Savings usually sit in cash or low-risk accounts that keep funds readily accessible, though cash can lose value to inflation. This is the money that handles unexpected costs or covers a few months of living expenses. Everything beyond that may work more effectively through investing, although investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you put in. Long-term funds such as global index portfolios, retirement accounts, or diversified investment plans can help your savings grow over time, though performance is uncertain and fees and taxes reduce returns. Over the years, the balance between the two changes: cash provides stability, while investments provide momentum.
The exact mix depends on your personal comfort, income, and time horizon. Some people prefer more liquidity while others lean toward growth. What matters is that each euro has a purpose, and together they build the structure that makes early retirement possible.
Retiring at 40 is the most ambitious form of early retirement. It demands discipline that begins long before most people even think about slowing down. Those who achieve it must start saving early, and they often treat financial independence like a long-term project: steady, intentional, and guided by a clear number that defines what life costs each year.
The foundation is a high savings rate. People aiming to retire at 40 often save between 40% and 60% of their income, redirecting every extra euro toward investments that grow over time. Their portfolios tend to lean toward growth-focused assets, such as global equities or index funds, which aim to deliver long-term growth and have historically compounded, but returns are not always guaranteed, and volatility can be significant.
Lifestyle choices matter just as much. Living below your means, reducing significant debts, and keeping fixed expenses low provide flexibility later. Health insurance, emergency savings, and accessible funds for the bridge years (before pension or age-restricted account access) add resilience to the plan.
Retiring this early rarely means stopping work entirely. It means reaching a point where paid work becomes optional. Some people turn to creative projects, part-time consulting, or simply taking extended breaks between ventures. The difference is that their money now supports their time, not the other way around.
For many people, when they reach 50 years of age, early retirement starts to feel within reach. Earnings are often at their highest, major debts are lower, and the picture of what life costs each year is clearer. The challenge shifts from building fast to planning smart.
Those preparing to retire at 50 focus on turning their target number into a working plan. At this stage, the goal is not to calculate from scratch but to refine what has already been built. Many early retirees choose a cautious withdrawal rate of around 3.3 to 3.5 percent (a little below the 3 to 4 percent rule of thumb mentioned earlier) to account for the longer time their savings need to last. Someone expecting to spend EUR 50,000 annually would therefore aim for roughly EUR 1.43 million (at 3.5%) to EUR 1.52 million (at 3.3%) invested.
Eliminating remaining liabilities strengthens that foundation. Paying off high-interest debt or reducing mortgage balances lowers future expenses and reduces the amount of income your savings need to generate each year. Building a ‘bridge fund’ of accessible investments or cash reserves covers the years before pensions or age-restricted accounts become available.
Planning at this stage also means preparing for rising healthcare expenses and inflation. Reviewing coverage options early and maintaining a portion of your portfolio in assets that grow with inflation can help protect your purchasing power.
Reaching financial independence at 50 gives you room to slow down, change priorities, or take on projects that feel meaningful without any financial pressure.
Every version of early retirement begins with a decision to live on your own terms. The numbers matter, but the reason behind them matters more. Most people aren’t chasing a perfect portfolio; they’re trying to buy back their time.
Financial independence means that the days belong to you. It means being able to pause, switch direction, or keep working because you enjoy it, not because you have to. The real reward is the peace of mind you get when you understand that you earned the right to use your time the way you wanted to.
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