Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Saxo Group
Oil production used to depend on geology, machinery, and luck. Today, it depends on big data. Machines are learning to detect faults before they happen; algorithms are adjusting pipeline flow in real time; and even drilling decisions are increasingly made with the help of artificial intelligence.
Companies that apply data more effectively are starting to lower costs and reduce downtime, two key factors in operational performance. And this shift is no longer experimental. The global digital transformation market in the oil and gas industry is projected to grow by USD 56.4 billion from 2025 to 2029, driven by investments and partnerships in AI and other technologies.
These changes are rewriting how oil is found, moved, refined, and sold, and they’re already shaping how capital flows into the sector.
Digital transformation in oil and gas means using modern technologies, such as automation, AI, and advanced data tools, to improve how oil is found, produced, moved, and refined. These changes are helping companies cut costs, reduce delays, and improve safety across operations.
The impact shows up differently depending on the part of the industry:
Companies that implement integrated data management systems, such as enterprise resource planning (ERP) and advanced analytics platforms, can respond faster to problems, reduce operational costs, and improve performance under pressure.
This matters for investors. Digitally advanced companies tend to run more efficiently, react better to price swings, and show clearer progress on sustainability. In an industry where costs, emissions, and public pressure are critical, digital performance is a signal of long-term resilience.
Digital tools are changing how the oil and gas sector manages its environmental footprint and workforce structure.
On the environmental front, technologies such as emission sensors, satellite monitoring, and AI modelling are helping companies detect methane leaks, measure flaring, and forecast carbon output more accurately. This supports compliance with stricter climate regulations and improves the consistency of ESG reporting.
Workforce dynamics are shifting as well. While automation reduces the need for certain manual tasks, it increases demand for technical roles in data management, remote operations, and cybersecurity. The oil and gas industry employs more than 12 million people globally, but the skill requirements are changing fast. This transformation favours companies that invest in training and digital infrastructure.
Digitalisation does not remove environmental or social risks. However, it creates better tools to track, reduce, and manage them in a more accountable way.
Despite market shifts and the push for renewables, oil and gas continue to attract capital. Investors are drawn to oil and gas investments for specific reasons:
Oil remains central to transport, manufacturing, agriculture, and chemicals. Even with the growth of renewables, global oil consumption is still expected to rise until 2030. Investment in the sector offers exposure to long-term energy demand from both developed and emerging markets.
Many oil and gas companies return significant profits to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. High free cash flow generation, especially from low-cost producers, supports steady payouts, even in cyclical downturns. This income profile appeals to investors who want regular returns.
Oil has historically acted as a hedge against inflation. When prices rise, energy costs tend to rise with them, lifting revenues for producers. Holding exposure to oil-linked assets can help preserve purchasing power during inflationary periods.
Unlike many industries where oversupply pushes prices downward, oil markets are often shaped by cartel-like behaviour (e.g., OPEC+) and production cuts. This introduces a unique dynamic where disciplined supply control can protect prices and producer margins.
Digitally enabled firms are able to reduce downtime, cut costs, and improve safety. Those that invest early in automation, AI, and analytics often display better capital discipline and resilience, which translates into stronger fundamentals over time.
Oil and gas stocks often perform independently of broader market trends. In periods where growth equities lag, especially during interest rate hikes or stagflation, oil producers may outperform, offering useful diversification in a portfolio.
The oil and gas industry faces long-term risks that extend beyond market cycles. These include:
Energy supply security is closely tied to political stability. Many oil and gas reserves are situated in regions prone to diplomatic or military conflicts. For instance, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted European gas supplies, leading to price spikes and prompting a reevaluation of energy dependencies. Such geopolitical events can result in abrupt regulatory changes and infrastructure threats, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors.
Governments are imposing stricter carbon disclosure requirements and transition frameworks. These new rules affect financing, reporting obligations, and the future viability of upstream projects. Delays in permitting or inconsistency in cross-border policy alignment can reduce capital efficiency and complicate long-term planning. As a result, the political impact on the oil and gas industry now includes climate-linked financial risk, not just taxation or licensing issues.
The oil and gas sector is characterised by significant price fluctuations, influenced by factors such as OPEC+ production decisions, futures market speculation, demand shocks, and broader economic shifts. While digital tools enhance forecasting and risk management, they cannot eliminate the inherent volatility. Investors must be prepared for both substantial gains and sharp downturns, particularly during global crises or periods of financial tightening.
Despite advancements in digital technologies, the oil and gas supply chain remains susceptible to disruptions. Infrastructure bottlenecks, port delays, and concentrated supplier networks can lead to operational inefficiencies and cost volatility. Events like hurricanes impacting Gulf Coast refineries exemplify how physical risks can disrupt supply chains, regardless of digital monitoring capabilities.
As more systems come online, digital transformation introduces new vulnerabilities. A growing share of control systems, production sites, and trading platforms now depend on connected infrastructure. While these systems improve efficiency, they also widen the attack surface. The consequences of a breach, whether a pipeline shutdown or manipulation of pricing data, are increasingly systemic and costly.
The oil and gas sector has always been shaped by physical limits—geology, geopolitics, and capital costs. But now, performance increasingly depends on how well companies use data to reduce downtime, cut emissions, and protect margins when conditions change fast.
Investors are paying closer attention to how companies operate, not just what they produce. Those with stronger digital capabilities tend to react faster, manage costs more effectively, and stay more stable when market conditions turn. In a sector that faces both volatility and transformation, that difference matters.