Nvidia earnings up next: the AI boom’s make-or-break moment

Key points:

• All eyes on Nvidia’s Q2 earnings (27 August) as the final Big Tech to report, with expectations sky-high amid surging AI demand.
• Blackwell chip rollout, China sales rebound, margins, and hyperscaler spending are critical watchpoints.
• Stock already up more than 30% this year, with valuations near record highs; guidance and management commentary will decide whether the rally has further legs.

When Nvidia reports results next week, it won’t just be another earnings call – it will be the closing act of Big Tech’s summer earnings season. Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Meta and Amazon have already set the tone, but for markets the real verdict lies with Nvidia, the company now synonymous with the artificial intelligence boom.

Consensus expects revenue of around USD 46 billion and earnings per share of USD 1.00, both representing growth of more than 50 per cent compared with a year ago. Some analysts are even more bullish, projecting closer to USD 48 billion in sales and earnings of USD 1.06.

“Nvidia’s earnings are no longer company-specific – they are the heartbeat of the AI trade.”

Four things to watch in the numbers

1. Blackwell rollout

The most important development is the ramp-up of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips, its next-generation AI architecture. Investors want clarity on production capacity, adoption rates and timing of the even newer “Rubin” platform due in 2026.

“The speed of the Blackwell rollout will decide whether Nvidia keeps its stranglehold on AI or leaves the door ajar for rivals.”

2. China comeback

Equally critical is the resumption of chip sales to China. After a ban in April, Washington granted Nvidia new export licences in July, though with a 15% revenue-sharing deal with the US government. The Chinese government has urged local firms to avoid Nvidia’s H20 chips, but Wall Street still sees billions of dollars in potential quarterly revenue from China returning as early as year-end.

3. Margins

Gross margins dipped last quarter due to a charge on unsold H20 chips. Management guided for recovery back to the mid-70s per cent in coming quarters. Investors will want reassurance that the rebound is on track – especially as Blackwell ramps and older inventory clears.

4. Hyperscaler demand

The real driver remains the spending spree by Big Tech hyperscalers. Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta have all lifted their capital expenditure budgets sharply – in some cases by more than 50 per cent year-on-year. Their demand for Nvidia GPUs shows little sign of slowing.

The bull case for Nvidia

With expectations sky-high, investors are weighing two scenarios: what could keep powering the rally, and what could derail it. The optimistic view is simple: demand for AI compute remains insatiable. Even as supply bottlenecks ease, customers are racing to secure as many chips as possible. Analysts see Nvidia potentially reporting USD 50 billion in quarterly revenue before year-end if hyperscaler orders continue.

“This isn’t just a growth story – it’s a land grab, and Nvidia is still selling the shovels in the AI gold rush.”

Longer term, opportunities extend well beyond data centres. Automotive AI, robotics, and cloud gaming (with Blackwell powering GeForce NOW) are all emerging as additional growth levers.

The bear case

The risks shouldn’t be ignored. At nearly 40x forward earnings and over 30x sales, Nvidia leaves investors with little margin for error. If growth slows or margins disappoint, the downside could be sharp.

Competition is also intensifying. Tech giants are ramping their own custom silicon – Google’s TPUs, Amazon’s Trainium – while AMD’s MI400 series could chip away at Nvidia’s dominance in 2026. And in China, political risk looms: approvals could be reversed as quickly as they were granted.

“For all its dominance, Nvidia’s Achilles’ heel is the speed at which competitors – or regulators – can change the game.”

Guidance will be the swing factor

Perhaps the most market-moving element will be guidance. Analysts are looking for Nvidia to signal USD 50 billion or more in revenue for the October quarter, which would reassure investors that AI demand isn’t peaking.

Any commentary on the durability of hyperscaler spending, progress in China, and margin recovery will be dissected line by line. Management’s tone may matter as much as the numbers themselves.

Strong analyst sentiment

Analyst ratings remain overwhelmingly positive: Bloomberg data shows nearly 89% of analysts rate the stock a Buy, with just 1% recommending Sell. The average 12-month price target sits at around USD 190–220, with some bulls calling for USD 240.

“Nvidia may be one of the most loved stocks on Wall Street, but love stories priced for perfection rarely leave room for disappointment.”

What it means for investors

For investors, Nvidia’s results are more than just a single stock story. They are a proxy for the AI trade – and by extension, for a large part of the stock market’s 2025 rally.

Key things to watch in the earnings call

• Blackwell chips – Is production ramping smoothly, and what’s the customer uptake?
• China sales – How big could the rebound be, and how sustainable?
• Margins – Is the path back to mid-70s still intact?
• Guidance – Does Nvidia see growth accelerating into year-end?
• Competition – How is Nvidia positioning against AMD and hyperscaler in-house chips?

Beyond the numbers

Nvidia’s upcoming report is more than just another earnings release. It’s the latest chapter in the defining market story of our time: the monetisation of AI.

The numbers will no doubt be massive – but what investors really want to know is whether this growth is durable. With the stock already pricing in near-flawless execution, the burden of proof is high.

“Nvidia is still the king of AI chips, but even kings must prove they can keep the crown.”

For investors, the message is clear: watch not just the beat, but the guidance and commentary on the road ahead. Nvidia’s earnings will tell us whether the AI trade still has firepower – or whether it’s time for a reality check.