Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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US & China check the key "trade war detente" boxes. Meanwhile, market narrowness a concern.
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today, we look at the US and China clearly wanting to de-escalate trade tensions as both sides made concessions, with a one-year time horizon for some of the most important ones. Otherwise, we cover the extreme narrowness of the market's recent advance as most stocks have had a lousy couple of days on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thoughts on Fed Chair Powell's hawkish press conference and an unbelievably dovish Bank of Japan governor Kuroda press conference, many single stock stories, must reads and listens and more are also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.
Today’s Links
WSJ on “tens of thousands” of jobs disappearing, displaced by AI
The article delivers a lot less than it promises and between the lines, it looks like the US economic transformation will create demand for other kinds of jobs outside the office. But it is no doubt that in many places, wrenching changes are afoot, especially for the gentleman profiled and his heart-breaking story - he could be a candidate for Turchin’s revolution (link below).
The trader who never spoke…until now.
If you haven’t already read it, pick up a copy of Jack Schwager’s 1989 classic Market Wizards book that interviews an impressive cast of successful traders from the time. The specific market dynamics have moved on since then, of course, but the book contains so many nuggets of wisdom for the trader. One of the most compelling interviews in the book was with Ed Seykota, a very early and successful systematic trader, not to mention eccentric. One of his early acolytes was David Druz, someone who has been active in markets for decades but steered clear of the spotlight, until now. Top Traders Unplugged managed to sit the guy down for an interview - I am looking forward to this listen.
Amazon moving further down the enshittification curve
Cory Doctorow posts scathing commentary on Amazon’s job reduction announcements and what they may really be about - Amazon becoming “too big to care”. Ouch.
This is unsustainable, when’s the violent revolution?
Peter Turchin of “cliodynamics” fame weighs in on the Thoughtful Money on how things may develop in even revolutionary fashion in the US if the scale of inequality persists without escape valves that flatten the extremes again. I like many of his observations on the dynamics of what is going on, if not fully engaging in his framework. In a related story, the Pentagon has ordered states to prepare rapid-response outfits to be trained in crowd control and civil disobedience.
Chart of the Day - S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
The chart is of Invesco’s S&P 500 equal weight ETF - others, including in UCITS forms are available (XTrackers has several that are listed on European exchanges). Interesting that yesterday saw one of the worst days for the average stock in the S&P 500 since the October 10 meltdown when Trump threatened the 100% tariffs on China. Also worth noting that the lows in this ETF price yesterday were near levels that traded way back in late July. In the case of the megacap heavy market cap-weighted S&P 500, we have advanced almost 8% since then. This increasingly narrow market advance should be at least a near term concern for the bulls, even if the narrative is that have cleared the decks of event risks once we get beyond earnings season here and can enjoy the “usual” end-of-year rally.
Weekly chart
Questions and comments, please!
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