Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Access all our platforms from a single account.
Oracle rewarded for betting its capex farm on AI.
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today we feature Saxo equity strategist Ruben Dalfovo helping break down what is driving the moon-shot in Oracle shares after the company blew the doors off of expectations with forward cloud infrastructure bookings in its earnings call after the close yesterday. We also look at the Klarna IPO forthcoming today, Novo Nordisk shares rallying on the company's cost reductions, the latest in geopolitics, macro and currencies and much more. Hosting today's pod is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.
Today's links
Here’s Ruben’s investor’s guide to the Klarna IPO. Here’s US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s blistering editorial on the Fed’s power overreach (as the government slept, arguably) in recent decades. Similarly, after yesterday’s enormous -911k downward revision to Apr 2024-Mar 2025 payrolls from the BLS review yesterday, it is worth considering whether the Fed should manage policy using entirely different tools due to its embarrassing record on measuring what is even going on in the economy - especially in the inflation and labor markets post-pandemic. Here’s a useful FTAlphaville article noting the debt dynamics for the major economies, arguing that UK fiscal fragility fears are overblown. Some great charts and comparisons. I would insist that the UK is still one of the most vulnerable economies and sterling one of the most vulnerable currencies, however, in the event of any systemic stress across global markets due to its twin deficit and very negative net international investment position (NIIP). From FTAlphaville’s further reading today, a rather depressing article on what gun violence in the US incurs in the way of costs to the system above and beyond the psychological terror of the violence itself. US remains a weird outlier on its attitudes toward guns, even as a strong majority think it is too easy to gain legal access to them. Today - as we consider the key drivers for gold, it is worth noting the significant difference between this cycle and prior cycles, where the focus was on “real yields” - how high yields were going relative to inflation, or at least the attempt by central banks to establish the narrative that policy would stay tight enough until inflation was tamed. Back in late 2022, the market was a believer in eventual CB success, arguably, as the premium for the 30-year yields over 10-year yields fell and fell as stock markets cratered by late 202 on the massive surge in interest rates. Note the exception of Japan’s experience in 2022 due to yield curve control out to 10-year yields. This time around, central banks have eased while long rates have headed higher as the market is more concerned about long term debt sustainability dynamics - in real terms - and suspects that central banks will maintain rates at more accommodative levels relative to inflation. This shift in the mindset has seen gold flourish even as the longest yields are offering more yield compensation for the risk than ever before in some cases, like in Japan. One challenge to this idea: the longest bonds rallied smartly in recent days without spot gold paying much heed - a blip or falsification of this narrative or have the gold bugs gotten carried away with the success in this bull run? Chart of the Day - Gold versus long bond term premium
Questions and comments, please!
We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy