Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
…remember the epitome of a world class trader or/& investor is to consistently compound wealth overtime regardless of the outcome. Once again, its about daily-weekly-monthly process over out come
We’ll obviously be covering the election run-down Asia Wed’s morning, for the latest cut from our in house specialist, these are John “Big Hat” Hardy’s takes:
US Election Countdown: T-minus two days – What if I’m totally wrong?
US Election Countdown: T-minus three days – Election Night 2016 vs. 2020
US Election Countdown: T-minus four days - The polls are not tightening.
John was also generous enough to offer the following for those looking to follow the coverage in detail from various outlets:
Election Night resources
If you are looking at what to watch on Election Night to track the unfolding results, here are a few ideas. Besides the usual live coverage of major US news networks (via YouTube) like ABC and others, the CNN coverage should also be available there as it was in 2016, when it tended to be heavy on the live result updates. Also, look for written live blogs on major newspapers and TV networks, but also on FiveThirtyEight.com.
The FiveThirtyEight website offers the most comprehensive guide to each state’s election results, both in terms of poll closings, but also with a spin on the likely speed of counting and the partisan patterns that will unfold on election night due to different rules in early- and mail-in voting. A simpler, but very nice graphic overview on 270towin.com website is also available on poll closing times. Also note their great, interactive electoral map you can use as results come in or to test different scenarios.
The earnings from the US technology quartet of Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook were strong and much better than expected. Apple disappointed by not providing an outlook, Amazon triggered nervousness of the relative lower market share in cloud infrastructure and Facebook disappointed on its forecast for daily and monthly active users across its markets in the US and Canada. Google on the other hand delivered so strong results that investors were excited. However, all earnings releases were in aggregate very strong and investors love affair with US technology stocks is not over yet as Nasdaq 100 is still offering strong cash flow generation and a clear growth trajectory
This wk KVP will be watching the large names such as PayPal, QualComm, AstraZeneca, Linde (Ind. Gas), T-Mobile US, Alibaba, Bristol-Myers, Toyota & Berkshire Hathaway. Being one for looking at off the beaten track, we’ll also be hearing from Beyond Meat & Compass Pathways – note links are previous flags on the names, so focus on big-picture as KVP does not tend to have a view on a quarter to quarter basis… that’s not a Macro game… that’s an Equity Long/Short game.
Minutes due out of Brazil & Japan.
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Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the way
KVP
AI: The good, the bad, and the bubble
While a deep recession may not be iminent thanks to central bank policy, interest rates will have to stay high for longer, and this will be accompanied by volatility risk from the unwinding of bubbles, especially within AI.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
The emergence of advanced AI systems is by far the most surprising event this year, turning everything upside down, while risks and benefits are debated. AI will also become an arms race between the US and China.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
As China navigates global fragmentation, its cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement, and growth is threatened by US breakthroughs in generative AI, limited computing power, and geopolitical tensions.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
Japan’s expertise in semiconductors and robotic integration could be the foundation of AI dominance. Combining two of this year's themes, Japanese equities and artificial intelligence, brings a wave of opportunities.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
The AI fever has turned the technology into a darling, pushing crypto further into no-man’s-land. There are striking similarities between AI and crypto, and if these are to come full circle, AI won't be spared for bubbles.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
Stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) have appeared on investors' radars. Expectations are high, but it may be necessary to consider how to get exposure to AI in a diversified way.
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
The USD is on its back foot as markets celebrate an eventual Fed rate peak and steady long US yields. The stakes are even higher for the Japanese yen if longer major sovereign yield curves have to price in economic acceleration.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
While commodities, broadly speaking, have faced some tough months, a partial reversal during June could signal that the asset class is getting back on its feet with energy holding up and precious metals with upside potential.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As inflation remains high central banks face hard decisions about whether they should keep hiking interest rates or stop. Meanwhile, the rise of AI creates bubble-like conditions that only make the decision harder.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
