Asia Market Quick Take – September 17, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: US Retails sales rise 0.6%, above expectations of 0.2%
• Equities: US equities fell on some profit taking ahead of the Fed meeting
• FX: USD weakened ahead of FOMC decision; EURUSD rose to 1.18, USDJPY below 147
• Commodities: Gold trades at a record after topping $3,700 for the first time
• Fixed income: Yields were richer in a bull‑steepener outperforming bunds and gilts

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• US retail sales rose 0.6% in August 2025, beating the forecast of 0.2%. Increases were notable in non-store retailers (2%), clothing (1%), and sporting goods (0.8%). Excluding major categories, sales jumped 0.7%, outperforming expectations of 0.4%. Declines occurred in miscellaneous retailers (-1.1%).
• Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz will become TikTok's new majority owners in the US. Oracle, co-founded by Larry Ellison, is TikTok's cloud provider. Silver Lake and Andreessen Horowitz are investment firms led by billionaires, including Trump adviser Marc Andreessen.
• Canada's annual core inflation, excluding eight volatile items like food, energy, and mortgage interest costs, remained at 2.6%, the same as in July and slightly under the 2.7% market expectation. Month-on-month, core consumer prices were unchanged, after a 0.1% rise in July.
• Japan's exports decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline but at the slowest rate in this sequence. This result exceeded market expectations of a 1.9% drop, indicating a slight respite from the effects of U.S. tariffs.
• China revealed measures to boost services consumption, including opening internet and culture sectors and hosting international sports events. Nine agencies aim to attract foreign investment in high-end medical care, support construction of cultural facilities with central and local funds, and use monetary policies to expand credit for services.
• US industrial production rose 0.1%, surpassing expectations of a 0.1% decrease after July's revised 0.4% fall. Manufacturing output increased 0.2%, beating forecasts of a 0.2% drop. Mining output grew 0.9%, while utilities fell 2%. Capacity utilization remained at 77.4%, 2.2 points below its long-run average.

Equities: 

• US- US stocks edged lower Tuesday as investors took profits ahead of the Fed’s September policy meeting. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, the Dow fell 125 points, and the Nasdaq closed flat. Tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Palantir declined, while financials and utilities also weighed on the market. Traders expect a 25 bps rate cut Wednesday—the first since December—with focus on Powell’s guidance. Strong August retail sales highlighted resilient spending despite sticky inflation and a cooling job market. Meanwhile, optimism over US-China trade progress and a new TikTok framework lifted sentiment, boosting Oracle shares.
• EU -European stocks fell sharply Tuesday, led by financials, as investors weighed global rate outlooks. The STOXX 50 dropped 1.3% to 5,372 and the STOXX 600 slid 1.2% to 551. Caution prevailed ahead of Fed and BoE decisions and US-China trade talks, while Trump began his UK visit. Germany’s ZEW sentiment beat forecasts, but UK jobs data signaled labor market weakness. Allianz, Santander, Intesa, Munich Re, and Deutsche Boerse lost about 2.5%, while L’Oréal fell nearly 3% after a Jefferies downgrade. Luxury stocks stayed volatile amid uncertainty over Armani’s future following its founder’s death.
• HK - Hang Seng closed flat at 26,438 Tuesday after early losses, supported by Wall Street’s record close and Fed rate-cut bets. Gains in tech and consumer names offset weakness in property and financials. Sentiment was lifted by a US-China TikTok ownership framework, with final approval expected Friday, while mainland shares stayed muted amid stimulus hopes and renewed trade tensions after China accused Nvidia of antitrust violations. Tencent plans an offshore yuan bond issue. Top gainers included Meituan (+4.4%), Trip.com (+4.2%), and Geely (+3.1%), while JD Health (-5.8%) and Sands China (-4.1%) lagged.

Earnings

• Wednesday: General Mills, Bullish
• Thursday: FedEx, Lennar, Research Solutions

FX:

• Ahead of the FOMC, the USD was under pressure, with the DXY falling below 97.00 despite strong US Retail Sales and Industrial Production data.
• EUR strengthens on the weaker dollar, as EURUSD traded to 1.1800, reaching 4-year high.
• GBPUSD rose slightly after favorable employment data, but gains were limited before the UK CPI release.
• JPY strengthened, pushing USDJPY below 147.00 due to the softer dollar.
• The Canadian dollar firmed, sending USDCAD 0.3% lower to 1.3743 and setting up its first two‑day rise this month ahead of tonight’s Bank of Canada decision with 25 bps fully priced in, after easing core inflation strengthened the case for a cut.
• Economic Calendar - RBA Jones Speech, UK Inflation Rate, ECB President Lagarde Speech, US Housing Starts, US Building Permits Prel

Commodities:

• Oil steadied after a three-day climb as traders weighed Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure; WTI neared $65 and Brent held above $68, with a Saratov refinery hit and Russia’s output at post‑pandemic lows.
• Gold held near record highs after topping $3,700 for the first time, supported by Fed rate‑cut bets and a weaker dollar.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries rebounded after an early dip on stronger‑than‑expected US retail sales, holding gains through a muted afternoon ahead of tonight’s Fed decision. A solid 20‑year auction stopped through the when‑issued (WI) level with above‑average demand. In SOFR futures, interest in curve steepeners persisted for a second session. Yields were 1.5bp–3bp richer in a gentle bull‑steepener; the 10‑year hovered near session lows around 4.025%, outperforming bunds and gilts.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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