Macro Dragon: Putting Compass on the Map... Mycelium, Magic Mushrooms + Psychedelics for Medicine & Treatment

Macro 2 minutes to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Putting Compass on the Map... Mycelium, Magic Mushrooms + Psychedelics for Medicine & Treatment 

 

Top of Mind…

  • As a refresher INIL, is the moniker Invest Now, Investigate Later – its supposed to be attributed to the leviathan, Soros (like all legends, you don’t need the full name!). The idea is that often you come across something that has the makings/sound/look of a truly compelling investment… yet for whatever reason, you may not currently have the time & bandwidth to look deeply into it…

  • So you put an INIL on, which is dipping your toe into it. If your initially wrong, that’s ok.. you dipped a toe in, cost is minimized. Yet once it’s in one’s portfolio, one greatly magnifies the probability of doing the detailed work to really decide whether its likely a dud or falls into the “too hard bucket” that needs to be folded, or is in the “buy it like a piggie” bucket, & hence one needs to massively upgrade the exposure.

  • We’ve discussed the Cannabis revolution c. 2yrs back [still very much in motion & a multi-decade theme, cannabinoid, edibles, drinks, globally deregulation & education, greater tax for governments, lower crime, medicine over drug, etc], yet KVP has been on the look-out for the investment theme of psychedelics for a long time – especially in the potential treatment of depression, likely a multi-trillion problem globally.

  • A lot of people don’t realise that the modern day healthcare & pharmaceutical business model is built around trimming the weeds of diseases & ailments, but not in uprooting the problem – simply due to profitability. Why give a permanent treatment for $100,000 when one can charge $25,000 a year for “treating” the subjects for the rest of they life? The pharma drug business is the ultimate bond coupon business…

  • Hence when Compass Pathways [CMPS] – backed by the likes of Peter Thiel, Mike Novogratz, Founders Fund & Christian Angermayer (authority bias alert!) – went public last wk, the Dragon took note.

  • Like most IPOs of late [Snowflake & Unity], it was priced better than expected at $17 post a range of $14 - $16m, then popped +71% on its first day to $29.

  • Taking the company to a $986m mkt cap, after which it had raised close to $130m – most of which has been earmarked for clinical trials & research. Just to give context on mkt size, goliath Pfizer is $204bn in mkt cap, so yes similar to BYND, TSLA… CMPS likely will always have a potential take-over optionality attached to it.
  • Whilst psychedelics have a tainted narrative (think Nixon & Reagan political drug propaganda that also coincided with the hippie era) & most seen as recreational drugs, there are medicinal natural uses going back centuries & spread out across different cultures around the globe (think mushrooms, DMT).
  • For a period of close to 50-60 years there has been a vacuum & black hole of research in the space, that is now rapidly trying to catch up on time. For some clinical depressive patients who have been on heavy medication for decades, they have called some of these treatments tens years of therapy in one session.
  • So whilst KVP still needs to dig much deeper into Compass Pathway, in regards to the theme, of psychedelics becoming part of mainstream medicines & treatment over the next five to fifteen years, he is a mega-bull.
  • Goes without saying, like any industry that is in the pioneering stage, there will be a lot of risk, noise, charlatans & vested interests both for & against it.

-

On The Radar Today…

  • JP: Still out on public hols, will be back in on Weds

  • US: Existing Home Sales, Richmond Mfg. Index, Powell Testifies @ 22:30

  • UK: Public Sector Net Borrowing, BoE Governor Bailey @ 15:30 SGT

  • EZ: Consumer Confidence

  • CH: CB leading index

    Note Wed will be flash PMIs across the board

-

Dragon's Must Reads

  • For the equity & equity tech fans - Eleanor Creagh highlighting Ant Group to join IPO rush

    Ant Group, China's dominant mobile payments firm, are set to dominate the listed fintech space with their upcoming, humongous, record setting IPO. The Chinese fintech company founded by former Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) Executive Chairman Jack Ma operates the e-commerce giant's Alipay payment service and could be the largest IPO ever when it dual-lists on the Hong Kong and Shanghai's Nasdaq-style STAR Market exchanges later this year..

  • John Hardy dropping a roadmap US Election Primer: The Final Sprint to November 3rd

    We sort through important dates in this final sprint phase of the absurdly long US presidential election cycle. Historically, we have seen significant shifts in the polling in the final weeks leading up to the election. As well, we consider factors that can change the odds between now and Election Day on November 3rd.

  • Saxo’s US Election Cheat Sheet Which cuts into the three potential pathways into the elections, probabilities around them, as well as short & long-term positions across equities, bonds, commodities & currencies.

-

Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity  | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 

KVP

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.